Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
For the most part, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2009 XC season into 2010 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below ... With rare exceptions, I ignored last year's modified runners.
Initially, the Combined Class List included 60+ teams, but I began removing teams with lower scores to make computer race simulations more manageable ... Other teams could be included, but time constraints are necessary ... Data on selected teams by class is also posted including relevant track times at 3000m, 1500m, 1-Mile and Steeplechase.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class (because some people are interested
)
... A lot can change between early August and November.
Pre-Season Projection - New York Team Contenders Girls - 2010
Team Score Section-Class
------------------ ----- -------------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 75 (03-AA)
2 Saratoga 85 (02-AA)
3 Queensbury 220 (02-A )
4 East Aurora 275 (06-B )
5 North Shore 300 * (08-A )
5 Burnt Hills 300 (02-A )
5 Monroe-Woodbury 300 (09-AA)
5 North Rockland 300 (01-AA)
9 Shenendehowa 315 (02-AA)
10 Canandaigua 325 (05-A )
11 Ward Melville 345 (11-AA)
12 Pearl River 360 (01-B )
12 Bronxville 360 (01-C )
12 Pittsford Mendon 360 (05-A )
15 Warwick Valley 390 (09-AA)
15 Honeoye Falls-Lima 390 (05-A )
17 Smithtown 400 (11-AA)
18 Cornwall 420 (09-A )
19 Greenwich 435 (02-C )
20 Northport 450 (11-AA)
21 Guilderland 480 (02-AA)
21 Arlington 490 (01-AA)
23 Fairport 520 (05-AA)
23 Holy Names 520 (02-A )
25 West Genesee 530 (03-AA)
25 Cicero-N Syracuse 530 ** (03-AA)
27 Tully 540 (03-C )
28 West Islip 550 (11-AA)
28 Columbia 550 (02-AA)
28 Ithaca 550 (04-AA)
* North Shore - since posting this score, I have learned
the #5 runner from last year is transferring
to St. Anthony's
** CNS - Could jump into the top 10 if all girls compete;
but will assume they are not all running XC
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2009 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I wanted to).
Note
... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team
abilities in a combined race ... I included 30 teams because Tully was
falling into 25-30 place range, and I wanted to include Tully.
In General ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite entering the 2010 XC season ... FM is the four-time defending National champion and appears to be strong again this season ... Saratoga figures to be a very strong challenger for the top spot ... Additional information is given below by class.
(maybe harder judging by some scores).
).
... all three have talented teams.