Predicted                                       Actual
     School                 Score     Sect         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Shaker                   75     (02-AA)
 2   Burnt Hills             240     (02-A )
 3   East Aurora             255     (06-B )
 4   St. Anthony's           260     (CHSAA)
 5   Saratoga                260     (02-AA)
 6   Shenendehowa            260     (02-AA)
 7   Chaminade               260     (CHSAA)
 8   Connetquot              260     (11-AA)
 9   West Genesee            260     (03-AA)
 10  Ithaca                  295     (04-AA)
 11  Smithtown               295     (11-AA)
 12  Arlington               305     (01-AA) ** updated due to runner not competing
 13  Vestal                  310     (04-A )
 14  Bayport-BluePt          330     (11-B )
 15  Queensbury              340     (02-A )
 16  Corning                 370     (04-AA)
 17  Monsignor Farrell       370     (CHSAA)
 18  St. John the Baptist    370     (CHSAA)
 19  North Rockland          370     (01-AA)
 20  Holland Patent          430     (03-C )
 21  Canisius                455     (CHSAA)
 22  Collegiate              480     (AIS  )
 23  Stuyvesant              485     (PSAL )
 24  Kellenberg              560     (CHSAA)
 25  Bronx HS Sci            590     (PSAL )
 26  Midwood                 670     (PSAL )
 27  Brooklyn Tech           730     (PSAL )
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... NOTE ... Both the Boys & Girls predictions were quick simulations ... Like last year, I decided not to spent much time evaluating this year's Federation races.

Shaker is the overwhelming favorite to win ... the only teams capable of mounting a serious challenge opted-out of Federations (Fayetteville-Manlius, Warwick Valley and Rush-Henrietta) ... State Class A Champion McQuaid is also not competing at Feds.

Burnt Hills did not race well at States and could be capable of challenging Arlington for the runner-up spot with a good performance ... Arlington is very familiar with Bowdoin Park and is the favorite to be second ... UPDATE (Nov 18) ... Arlington's top runner (Eddie Merenda) will be missing Feds due to an injury - scores above were adjusted.

The teams listed 3rdh through 9th above seem to be very close in possible team score (flip a coin for possible finishing places) ... East Aurora won the Class B race at States with a good team performance (and finished only two points behind Arlington in the merged team score) .... St. Anthony's edged Chaminade by only two points in the CHSAA Championship.

Individual Race ... Edward Owens (Packer Collegiate) is the currently the top rated runner in NY ... The NYSAIS and PSAL ran their championship races on a certified 5K course at Van Cortlandt Park that speed rated very similar to the standard 5K Footlocker course at VCP ... Edward Owens' time in the NYSAIS championship race (15:42.32) would have been good enough to qualify for Footlocker in various years; in the Bowdoin Classic Invite, Owens ran 16:05 which is a very good time at Bowdoin Park ... Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville) finished 3rd at States (Class AA) after losing a shoe at the mile mark (hope his foot didn't take too much abuse) ... Sam Place (Saratoga) finished 2nd in the State Class AA race (won by Chris Buchanan who is not entered in Feds); Sam Place is consistently good and is a serious challenger for the win ... Alex Saavedra (Sachem East) did not have his best race at States, but did pop some big performances at Sunken Meadow that may be good enough to win this race ... Martin Hehir (Washingtonville) and Otis Ubriaco (Burnt Hills) have also demonstrated the capability of winning Feds.

The "long-shot" runner to watch is Cole Townsend (Canisius) ... he won the Large School Seeded race (AAA) at McQuaid (14:56) and has run some other impressive performances, but has yet to face the top NY runners head-to-head in a major race ... He just might surprise the field.

The top ranked runners entered in the meet are (overall rating & individual race ratings):

Edward Owens        12   AIS     Packer Collegiate   191     195 186 188 187 185 192
Alex Saavedra       12   11-AA   Sachem East         189     182 192 194 188 184 184
Sam Place           12   02-AA   Saratoga            189     189 184 190 190 187
Martin Hehir        12   09-AA   Washingtonville     189     186 190 191 183 187 185 190 187
Shaun Thompson      12   03-AA   Baldwinsville       189     188 190 188 184 159
Otis Ubriaco        12   02-A    Burnt Hills         188     182 181 191 189 191 186 173
Cole Townsend       12   CHS     Canisius            187     187 186 188 174 169
Christian Delago    11   02-AA   Shaker              186     186 187 188 181 178 173 164 172
Matt Johnson        12   04-AA   Ithaca              185     187 183 181 182 183 184 175
Dylan Racha         12   03-C    Holland Patent      184     186 178 184 181 181 176 183 173 176
Cody Racha          12   03-C    Holland Patent      183     186 180 182 179 181 174 182 170 176
Michael Libruk      11   02-AA   Shaker              183     184 183 182 181 182 177 184 174
Daniel Siegel       12   08-A    Great Neck S        183     183 180 183 181 177 181
Kyle Gronostaj      9    02-AA   Columbia            182     182 181 183 155 178
James Naglieri      12   01-AA   North Rockland      181     172 185 176 180 182 177 178
Owen Skeete         12   08-A    Westbury            181     177 184 180 177 178 173
Marshall Pagano     12   02-AA   Niskayuna           181     179 182 182 177 179 177 180 178 180
Jon Vallecorsa      11   02-AA   Shaker              180     175 182 181 181 181 176 180 176
Matthew Cheney      12   03-D    Beaver River        180     180 180 174 181 179 183 176 177 184 175
Andrew Valenski     12   08-AA   Massapequa          180     181 179 180 177 180 180
Eddie Merenda       11   01-AA   Arlington           180     177 179 182 179 183 168 179 177 180
Zach Cammer         10   11-AA   Walt Whitman        180     180 183 177 172 170 161
Thomas Diliberto    11   CHS     St. Anthonys        180     180 184 175 177 171 165 172 174
Zach Krause         12   11-AA   Connetquot          180     176 180 182 180 175 179 180 179
Cameron Bruce       11   04-C    Lansing             180     177 179 180 181 176 182
Chad Maloy          12   06-B    Springville         180     183 178 173 177 176 169 169
Cal Michaels        12   04-A    Vestal              180     179 176 178 186 180 167		

 

                          Prediction                                      Actual
     School                 Score     Sect         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Saratoga                 36     (02-AA)
 2   East Aurora             160     (06-B )
 3   North Shore             165     (08-A )
 4   Queensbury              165     (02-A )
 5   North Rockland          230     (01-AA)
 6   Guilderland             240     (02-AA)
 7   Honeoye Falls-Lima      250     (05-A )
 8   Monroe-Woodbury         260     (09-AA)
 9   Northport               270     (11-AA)
 10  Bronxville              280     (01-C )
 11  Greenwich               280     (02-C )
 12  Pearl River             300     (01-B )
 13  Ward Melville           310     (11-AA)
 14  Cicero-North Syracuse   330     (03-AA)
 15  St. Anthony's           340     (CHSAA)
 16  Kellenberg              370     (CHSAA)
 17  Colonie                 380     (02-AA)
 18  Liverpool               430     (03-AA)
 19  Port Richmond           460     (PSAL )
 20  St. John the Baptist    465     (CHSAA)
 21  Notre Dame Academy      540     (CHSAA)
 22  Sacred Heart Academy    640     (CHSAA)
 23  Fiorello Laguardia      645     (PSAL )
 24  Curtis                  665     (PSAL )
 25  Immaculata-Buffalo      700     (CHSAA)
 26  Townsend Harris         750     (PSAL )
 27  Horace Mann             770     (AIS  )

Pre-Race Analysis ... The race is missing some good NY teams (such as Fayetteville-Manlius and Burnt Hills).

Saratoga is the overwhelming favorite ... Saratoga is deep and talented and currently, the #2 ranked team in the nation behind Fayetteville-Manlius.

East Aurora, North Shore and Queensbury appear evenly matched in potential scoring ... In the merged team scoring at States, East Aurora was 3rd (with193 pts) and North Shore 4th (with 200 pts) ... Queensbury did not race at States (Burnt Hills was the Section 2 Class A winner over Queensbury in a close contest); the three Queensbury individuals who ran at States ran well ... North Shore had a few physical problems earlier in the season, but they are definitely on the improve as demonstrated by their Class A victory at States ... The battle for second seems to depend on performance at the #4 and #5 positions.

Individual Race ... Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall) is the top-rated runner in NY and the nation ... Aisling Cuffe is the big favorite to win; with good weather and running conditions, she may have a shot at Nicole Blood's course record at Bowdoin Park ... Brittany Winslow, Maria LaMontagne and Laura Leff appear evenly-matched for the second-spot ... Brittany Winslow is having her best year ever for Queensbury ... Laura Leff was the NY State 8th-grader of the year in 2009 (and continues to improve in 2010) ... Maria LaMontagne was playing soccer as an 8th-grader last year, but sprang to prominence with some exceptional track performances (such as breaking Nicole Blood's NY State 8th-grade 1500 meter record with a 4:31.67 clocking at States and beating the FM girls in the sectional 3200 meter race).

The top ranked runners entered in the meet are (overall rating & individual race ratings):

Aisling Cuffe         12   09-A    Cornwall          162     163 162 159 161 160 147
Brittany Winslow      12   02-A    Queensbury        150     148 153 140 148 143 146 143 142
Maria LaMontagne      9    03-AA   CNS               148     150 139 140 149 148 143 141
Laura Leff            9    03-AA   West Genesee      147     149 145 142 136 145 145 129
Keelin Hollowood      10   02-AA   Saratoga          142     134 141 147 132 138
Lauren Mullins        11   04-B    Johnson City      139     137 139 138 144 142 133 138
Gina Talt             12   01-AA   Mamaroneck        136     139 131 131 134 132 135 126
Colleen Schmidt       12   CHS     Holy Trinity      136     136 136 130 118
Marta McLaughlin      9    06-B    East Aurora       136     137 135 134 134 131 136 136 129 126
Holly Cavalluzzo      10   09-AA   Valley Central    135     134 136 137 131 127 125
Mary Kate Anselmini   12   11-AA   Ward Melville     135     132 137 126 139 134 125 131
Sydney King           12   02-AA   Saratoga          135     122 134 139 122 135
Kristen Borriello     9    09-AA   Valley Central    134     131 129 137
Amanda Borroughs      12   02-AA   Saratoga          134     132 133 135 133
Margaret MacDonald    11   02-AA   Saratoga          133     99 136 138 129 138
Mary Cain             9    01-C    Bronxville        133     135 135 130 128 123 120 122 108 111
Madison Carr          10   02-AA   Saratoga          132     133 118 136 133 115
Brigid Brennan        9    11-AA   Northport         131     129 134 128 127 125 107
Anne Carey            12   CHS     St. John Bapt     131     134 121 133 130 117 125 114
Leah Triller          9    02-A    Holy Names        131     129 133 134 122 127 126 124 125 124
Ashley Murphy         12   CHS     Sacred Heart      131     127 134 124 123
Rachel Paul           11   11-AA   Sachem East       131     128 131 123 134 124
Estela Smith          8    02-AA   Saratoga          130     131 129 118 125
Taylor Driscoll       10   02-AA   Saratoga          129     132 128 122 122 118
Jolie Navatka         11   02-A    Queensbury        129     125 133 126 128 124 117 113 121
Betsy Edinger         12   02-C    Greenwich         129     121 127 134 128 124 117 125
Michelle Gaye         12   11-A    Harborfields      129     130 127 131 124 122 121 116 114
Meaghan Ventarola     11   09-AA   Monroe-Woodbury   129     128 131 131 114 109 109 111
Megan Hulton          12   06-B    East Aurora       128     126 126 126 131 127 133 132 126
Ursula Svoboda        10   01-AA   Suffern           128     119 127 128 135 131 129 125 127 122
Samantha Watson       12   02-C    Schuylerville     128     120 131 129 124 128 121 123 124 119
Samantha Nadel        11   08-A    North Shore       128     129 114 117 104 115 128 140