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 Federation Championship 2011 - Projections

 

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the seven runners from each team in the entry lists ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 16, 2011  ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet  ...

Actual Scores added November 20, 2010 ...

[ Girls Projection ]

 

 BOYS Federation Champ 2011 ...  Shaker the favorite
 

                          Predicted                                       Actual
     School                 Score     Sect         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Shaker                  120     (02-A )       Shaker                   121
 2   St. Anthonys            141     (CHSAA)       Arlington                155
 3   Arlington               141     (01-A )       East Aurora              160
 4   Monsignor Farrell       205     (CHSAA)       Monsignor Farrell        183
 5   East Aurora             220     (06-B )       St. Anthony's            185
 6   Warwick Valley          250     (09-A )       Saratoga                 215
 7   Saratoga                260     (02-A )       Chaminade                219
 8   Collegiate              265     (AIS  )       Warwick Valley           255
 9   Chaminade               302     (CHSAA)       Collegiate               309
 10  Honeoye Falls-Lima      319     (05-B )       Bethlehem                313
 11  Bethlehem               336     (02-A )       Stuyvesant               323
 12  Northport               358     (11-A )       Burnt Hills              329
 13  Burnt Hills             380     (02-B )       Maine-Endwell            339
 14  Franklin Academy        380     (10-B )       Honeoye Falls-Lima       351
 15  Smithtown               386     (11-A )       Franklin Academy         372
 16  Ithaca                  391     (04-A )       Pearl River              377
 17  Maine-Endwell           395     (04-B )       Northport                408
 18  Stuyvesant              396     (PSAL )       St. John Baptist         426
 19  Pearl River             400     (01-B )       Xavier                   433
 20  Bronx HS Science        405     (PSAL )       Bronx Science            463
 21  Marcellus               420     (03-B )       Smithtown                480
 22  Xavier                  439     (CHSAA)       Barker                   494
 23  Corning                 465     (04-A )       Ithaca                   513
 24  St. John Baptist        473     (CHSAA)       Corning                  597
 25  Midwood                 662     (PSAL )       Thomas Jefferson         605
 26  Thomas Jefferson        670     (PSAL )       Canisius                 623
 27  Canisius                809     (CHSAA)
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... NOTE ... Both the Boys & Girls predictions were quick simulations ... Like last year, I decided not to spent much time evaluating this year's Federation races ... Two of the top NY teams opted-out of Federations (Fayetteville-Manlius and Rush-Henrietta).

Shaker is the favorite to win ... St. Anthony's and Arlington are not that far behind and appear evenly matched in this race ... Monsignor Farrell is projected in the four-position ... It's been a while since the CHSAA had two of the top four teams at Feds.

Individual Race ... Brendan Smith (CBA-Syracuse) has been running very well; he won the Class C title impressively at States and appears to be the slight favorite entering Feds ... However, a number of other runners are very close and should contend for the individual title ... MJ Erb (Victor) had his best performance of the season at States in finishing second to Nick Ryan (FM) and recording the 2nd-best time of the day (his previous best performance was a 3rd-place finish at McQuaid) ... Mike Turi (John Jay EF) is very familiar with Bowdion Park and is expected to be a serious contender ... The CHSAA has several top contenders including Dan Galford (Monsignor Farrell), Thomas Awad (Chaminade) and Ryan Phillips (Regis); last spring, Thomas Awad popped a huge 3200 meter PR at the Outdoor State Meet (9:09), and bears some serious consideration in this race ... TJ Hornberger (Lake Shore) and Ryan Manahan (Marcellus) have been racing well all season.

The list below shows the top-rated runners entering Feds.

 
 Brendan Smith         12   03-C    CBA                    185     186 184 182 179 185 176 174
 Michael Turi          12   01-A    John Jay EF            184     183 186 183 184 181 180 176
 Dan Galford           11   CHS     Monsignor Farrell      183     185 181 184 176 175 173
 TJ Hornberger         10   06-B    Lake Shore             183     184 182 179 180 185 182 180 180
 Ryan Manahan          11   03-B    Marcellus              183     184 179 175 183 183 177 176 174 185 180
 Paddy Grandinali      12   09-A    Warwick                182     184 174 181 181 179 180
 Cameron Bruce         12   04-C    Lansing                182     180 178 183 185 182
 Justin Maguire        12   01-B    Brewster               181     183 180 174 182 181 172 182 175 176 179
 MJ Erb                12   05-A    Victor                 181     187 174 161 171 180 170
 Thomas Awad           12   CHS     Chaminade              181     181 181 181 183 181 180
 Sebastion Hanson      11   01-A    Arlington              181     182 180 181 177 177 178 174
 Eric Holt             11   01-A    Carmel                 181     173 186 179 175 177 177 168 174
 Alec Peinkofer        11   03-A    Baldwinsville          181     184 174 179 174 178 180 181 178
 Jon Vallecorsa        12   02-A    Shaker                 181     178 181 180 180 172 178 182 185 181
 Konrad Surkont        12   PSA     Stuyvesant             181     181 181 179 178
 Sam Anderson          12   03-C    South Lewis            180     182 181 178 176 170 169 172 167 163
 Austin Lane           12   02-C    Greenwich              179     179 174 179 184 178 178
 Ryan Phillips         12   CHS     Regis                  179     179 179 178 180 177 175 174
 Cooper Roach          12   05-B    Honeoye FL             179     175 177 172 179 183 184
 Jason Lange           11   02-B    Bishop Gibbons         179     180 179 177 173 177 176 160 161 162
 Buddy Herkenham       12   02-B    Burnt Hills            179     178 180 178 174 177 174 179 159
 Eddie Merenda         12   01-A    Arlington              178     176 179 180 170 179 176 163
 Taylor Love           12   01-B    Rye                    178     171 178 181 176 167 172
 Jack Stevenson        11   PSA     Stuyvesant             178     180 175 175 169 170
 Christian Delago      12   02-A    Shaker                 177     179 175 178 174 163 151
 Brendan Wortner       12   01-C    Dobbs Ferry            177     178 176 173 170 178 170
 Jeremy Rushok         12   06-C    Akron                  177     178 180 172 172 169 167 166 161 155
 Alex Campanella       11   09-D    Eldred                 177     178 167 168 170 182 185 176
 Brian Crimmins        12   04-A    Horseheads             176     156 181 175 179 175 172 173 175
 Frankie Pfeil         12   06-C    Roy-Hart               176     168 178 175 170 176 173 174
 John Lee              12   11-B    Shoreham-Wading R      176     165 178 176 172 177 175 173 179
 Stephen Bourguet      11   08-B    Manhasset              175     172 179 172 175 170 172 148
 Logan Kempney         12   03-D    Beaver River           175     173 176 175 162 178 176 174 171 170
 Ian Tolan             12   04-A    Binghamton             175     175 177 172 165 171 171 170 175
 Sean Phillips         11   06-B    East Aurora            175     176 176 175 166 176 169 170 166 165
 Patrick Ginty         11   CHS     St. Anthonys           175     178 166 175 172 170 160		

 

 GIRLS Federation Champ 2011 ... Saratoga a big favorite
 

                          Prediction                                      Actual
     School                 Score     Sect         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
  1  Saratoga                 69     (02-A )       Saratoga                  57
  2  Burnt Hills             170     (02-B )       Bronxville               187
  3  Ward Melville           215     (11-A )       Burnt Hills              195
  4  Holy Names              225     (02-B )       Pearl River              213
  5  Honeoye Falls-Lima      227     (05-B )       East Aurora              227
  6  Pearl River             230     (01-B )       Shenendehowa             239
  7  Bronxville              240     (01-C )       Ward Melville            254
  8  Shenendehowa            241     (02-A )       Sachem East              261
  9  Rush-Henrietta          255     (05-A )       North Rockland           262
  10 East Aurora             260     (06-B )       Penfield                 272
  11 Sachem East             281     (11-A )       Honeoye Falls-Lima       272
  12 Suffern                 282     (01-A )       Rush-Henrietta           280
  13 Penfield                290     (05-A )       St. Anthony's            280
  14 Northport               311     (11-A )       Holy Names               293
  15 St. Anthonys            320     (CHSAA)       Northport                312
  16 North Rockland          330     (01-A )       Cicero-North Syracuse    362
  17 Cicero-North Syracuse   370     (03-A )       Suffern                  381
  18 Benjamin Cardozo        514     (PSAL )       Notre Dame Academy       430
  19 Notre Dame              542     (CHSAA)       Benjamin Cardozo         455
  20 Port Richmond           550     (PSAL )       Port Richmond            497
  21 Sacred Heart            559     (CHSAA)       St. John Villa           554
  22 St. John Villa          594     (CHSAA)       Kellenberg Memorial      581
  23 Kellenberg              605     (CHSAA)       Sacred Heart Academy     599
  24 Curtis                  615     (PSAL )       Curtis                   675
  25 Hackley                 687     (AIS  )       Hackley School           724
  26 Townsend Harris         738     (PSAL )       Townsend Harris          744
  27 Immaculata-Buffalo      847     (CHSAA)       Immaculata-Buffalo       811

Pre-Race Analysis ... The race is missing some good NY teams (such as Fayetteville-Manlius, North Shore, Greenwich and Canadaigua).

Saratoga is the overwhelming favorite with Burnt Hills second ... A bunch of teams are fairly close for the third-position (depends on which team has a good day).

Individual Race ... Mary Cain (Bronxville) and Laura Leff (West Genesee) are co-favorites for this race ... Laura Leff finished 3rd at last year's Feds and Mary Cain finished 14th, but Mary Cain is definitely improved this season (and unbeaten) ... Alexis Panisse (Benjamin Cardozo) is one of the best-ever XC runners from the PSAL ...Gianna Frontera (Newburgh) has been consistently good all season ... Rachel Paul (Sachem East) is very good runner ... I don't think Lizzie Predmore (Shen) liked the muddy conditions at States.

The list below shows the top-rated runners entering Feds.

 
 Mary Cain             10   01-C    Bronxville             147     145 144 151 145 146 142 144 144
 Laura Leff            10   03-A    West Genesee           147     143 146 148 136 147 149
 Alexis Panisse        12   PSA     Benjamin Cardozo       140     140 142 138 140 119 126
 Rachel Paul           12   11-A    Sachem East            140     133 141 139 140 140 144
 Gianna Frontera       10   09-A    Newburgh               139     140 140 137 137 137 130 135 131 141 125
 Lizzie Predmore       12   02-A    Shenendehowa           137     116 137 141 142 131 138
 Lauren Mullins        12   04-B    Johnson City           135     132 141 135 126 120 121 121
 Taylor Driscoll       11   02-A    Saratoga               135     117 140 134 131 134
 Katie Lembo           10   05-A    Penfield               135     130 136 134 135 130 129 135 130 134
 Keelin Hollowood      11   02-A    Saratoga               134     133 137 123 131 129
 Estela Smith          9    02-A    Saratoga               132     133 130 130 134 129
 Leila Mantilla        12   05-A    Penfield               131     129 130 130 127 131 135 133 132 131
 Alicia Clark          12   02-C    Granville              129     124 130 128 130 131 125 94
 Talia Guevara         10   11-B    Miller Place           127     129 126 127 126 124 105 102
 Kate Zendell          9    01-A    Suffern                127     115 127 133 128 124 122 117 119
 Caroline O'Hea        12   11-A    Ward Melville          127     127 127 122 130 121 115
 Ariana Bottalico      11   01-B    Brewster               127     127 123 126 131 124 125 127 122 125 114
 Meredith Rizzo        11   01-C    Bronxville             126     124 126 128 126 125 116 122 114
 Hannah Cole           11   05-B    Honeoye FL             126     129 123 118 121 119 113
 Leah Triller          10   02-B    Holy Names             126     111 135 118 126 120 119 118 124 119
 Stephanie Gerland     8    08-B    Garden City            126     111 129 121 128 131 126
 Brigid Brennan        10   11-A    Northport              126     122 129 110 123 123 124 125 118
 Autumn Albrecht       9    05-A    Brockport              125     124 129 122 117 112 113 115
 Maddie Zeitz          11   04-C    Windsor                125     118 120 125 128 126 130 125 119
 Maryanna Lansing      8    02-A    Shaker                 124     115 127 127 127 117 121 125 120 120
 Jennifer Gerland      9    08-B    Garden City            124     115 127 121 126 126 125
 Liz Valento           12   05-D    Pavilion               124     124 117 128 121 121 105
 Tiana Guevara         10   11-B    Miller Place           124     123 124 127 121 118 107 107
 Courtney Williams     8    11-A    Ward Melville          124     127 122 116 113 101
 Kelly Hayes           10   01-B    Pearl River            124     124 119 129 119 119 120 113 114 82
 Valerie Palermo       11   05-A    Webster Schroeder      124     126 122 120 120 111 120
 Lauren Reyda          9    06-C    Fredonia               124     121 124 124 123 120 123 126 118 118
 Amanda Paratore       10   05-A    Webster Schroeder      123     118 127 120 119 120 124 118
 Marta McLaughlin      10   06-B    East Aurora            123     124 119 121 124 126 120 118 119
 Ursula Svoboda        11   01-A    Suffern                123     120 119 111 131 128 120 126
 Molly Shine           12   01-B    Pearl River            123     98 128 125 129 122 113 127 118 104
 Alyssa Drapeau        12   02-B    Burnt Hills            123     121 124 124 121 121 110 106