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 NXN Boys & Girls Team Projections for 2013

Purpose  ... The purpose of these projections is to get a General Idea of team strength based on speed ratings ... The purpose is NOT to predict exactly where each and every runners will finish (that is impossible no matter how good the data) ... I want ONLY an overall idea of where teams MIGHT finish relative to each other.

These projections could be considered similar to the "Morning Line" of a horse race ... I'm trying to provide information to bettors.

Speed is only one factor used in handicapping races and speed can be inconsistent for some runners ... See the "Importance of Speed Ratings in Handicapping NXN Nationals" article for additional information.

Three Team Scores are posted below:
 .. (1) The Overall Morning-Line Team Scores ... a combination of the overall ratings listed below PLUS some manual manipulation (based on historical trends or current information) to try and projection what "bettors" might actual consider a starting point for wagering ... Personally, I might actually bet somewhat differently.
 .. (2) Team Scores Using NXN Regional Speed Ratings
 .. (3) Team Scores Using State Meet Speed Rating (Note - for California, the actual CA State Meet ratings are applied to NXN Region (since it was the CA NXN qualifier) ... CA Section Final speed ratings used for "State" scores below)

See text files of data (worksheets of various team speed ratings by race):
 .... Boys Data File of Speed Ratings ]
 .... Girls Data File of Speed Ratings ]

Initial projections posted on December 2, 2013  .... Actual Results Posted Dec 7, 2013 ....

.... Actual Results Posted Dec 7, 2013 ....

[ Girls Projections ]

 

 Boys NXN Projected Team Scores 2013 ... CBA, Gig Harbor & FM - VERY Close
 

  Overall Morning-Line Team Scores - Boys            ACTUAL RESULTS 
                                                                                                  Pred
  1   Christian Brothers     NJ    139  (Northeast )          1   Gig Harbor WA              111  (2 )
  2   Gig Harbor             WA    140  (Northwest )          2   Christian Brothers NJ      139  (1 )
  3   Fayetteville-Manlius   NY    145  (New York  )          3   Brentwood HS TN            174  (7 )
  4   Arcadia                CA    190  (California)          4   Fayetteville-Manlius NY    216  (3 )
  5   American Fork          UT    199  (Southwest )          5   Carmel IN                  225  (12)
  6   North Central          WA    219  (Northwest )          6   St. Xavier OH              228  (9 )
  7   Brentwood HS           TN    230  (Southeast )          7   American Fork UT           230  (5 )
  8   Liverpool              NY    245  (New York  )          8   North Central WA           231  (6 )
  9   St. Xavier             OH    262  (Midwest   )          9   Arcadia CA                 255  (4 )
  10  Northport              NY    289  (New York  )          10  Edina MN                   263  (19)
  11  W Chester Henderson    PA    287  (Northeast )          11  Northport NY               299  (10)
  12  Carmel                 IN    288  (Midwest   )          12  W Chester Henderson PA     301  (11)
  13  Madera South           CA    298  (California)          13  Severna Park MD            303  (14)
  14  Severna Park           MD    314  (Southeast )          14  Southlake Carroll TX       308  (21)
  15  Dana Hills             CA    326  (California)          15  Wayzata MN                 322  (17)
  16  Central Catholic       OR    337  (Northwest )          16  Madera South CA            325  (13)
  17  Wayzata                MN    341  (Heartland )          17  Davis UT                   344  (20)
  18  Hinsdale Central       IL    361  (Midwest   )          18  Dana Point CA              347  (15)
  19  Edina                  MN    365  (Heartland )          19  Central Catholic OR        375  (16)
  20  Davis                  UT    380  (Southwest )          20  Liverpool NY               401  (8 )
  21  Southlake Carroll      TX    385  (South     )          21  Lewisville Hebron TX       415  (22)
  22  Lewisville Hebron      TX    510  (South     )          22  Hinsdale Central IL        458  (18)



         Team Scores Based on                                  Team Scores Based on
        NXN Regional Speed Ratings                           State Meet (or CA Sectional) Speed Ratings

 1   Fayetteville-Manlius   NY    123    (New York  )          1   Christian Brothers     NJ    128
 2   Arcadia                CA    184    (California)          2   Gig Harbor             WA    128
 3   Gig Harbor             WA    200    (Northwest )          3   Fayetteville-Manlius   NY    166
 4   Brentwood HS           TN    202    (Southeast )          4   North Central          WA    173
 5   Christian Brothers     NJ    202    (Northeast )          5   Arcadia                CA    219
 6   Northport              NY    215    (New York  )          6   American Fork          UT    228
 7   Liverpool              NY    254    (New York  )          7   Liverpool              NY    235
 8   St. Xavier             OH    258    (Midwest   )          8   St. Xavier             OH    247
 9   Carmel                 IN    262    (Midwest   )          9   Northport              NY    270
 10  Madera South           CA    268    (California)          10  Carmel                 IN    281
 11  American Fork          UT    279    (Southwest )          11  Dana Hills             CA    281
 12  Severna Park           MD    286    (Southeast )          12  Central Catholic       OR    285
 13  Southlake Carroll      TX    287    (South     )          13  W Chester Henderson    PA    291
 14  W Chester Henderson    PA    289    (Northeast )          14  Madera South           CA    310
 15  North Central          WA    301    (Northwest )          15  Hinsdale Central       IL    312
 16  Dana Hills             CA    331    (California)          16  Wayzata                MN    321
 17  Wayzata                MN    366    (Heartland )          17  Brentwood HS           TN    339
 18  Central Catholic       OR    373    (Northwest )          18  Edina                  MN    364
 19  Edina                  MN    373    (Heartland )          19  Severna Park           MD    401
 20  Davis                  UT    385    (Southwest )          20  Southlake Carroll      TX    405
 21  Hinsdale Central       IL    396    (Midwest   )          21  Davis                  UT    462
 22  Lewisville Hebron      TX    462    (South     )          22  Lewisville Hebron      TX    469
		

Pre-Race Comments ... All nine years of NXN have demonstrated that most teams will NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will have speed ratings lower than the individual runner projections below (this is expected because Portland Meadows is a new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling, time-changes, etc) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses (typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for projecting relative team scores.

The overall morning-line projected team scores above are based (in part) on the individual ratings below ... There were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to approximate an overall-combined rating.

Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race (runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ... Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and frustrating) ... Notice the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and State Meet ratings above ... For example, Fayetteville-Manlius had their best team performance of the season at the NXN-NY regional and that's reflected in their corresponding NXN regional team score ... Likewise, Christian Brother's Holmdel Park course record at the New Jersey State Meet of Champions places them on top for State Meet scoring.

General Team Comments:

The morning-line at most horse tracks considers three factors: (1) past performance history of each horse, (2) an opinion of what people are likely to bet, and (3) a handicapping opinion of the person making the morning-line.

The weather and course conditions are major handicapping factors at Portland Meadows in December ... On Sunday (Dec 1, 2013), I watched several horse races at Portland Meadows on television (temperature 52 deg F, light rain, track sloppy) ... There were small pools of standing water in one section of the infield, but no "lakes" that sometimes form at Portland Meadows ... No way to tell how soft or saturated the cross country course might be, but it's likely there will be some soft (muddy) areas ... The extended weather forecast says mostly sunny days Tuesday through Friday (40-34 deg high temps) with Saturday having a 0% chance of snow and a high temperature of 30 ... I suspect the cool weather will affect some teams and runners.

Entering NXN 2013, the three teams that appear to be at the top are Christian Brothers Academy (NJ), Gig Harbor (WA) and Fayetteville-Manlius (NY) ... Arcadia (CA), American Fork (UT) and North Central (WA) are not that far behind and definitely within striking distance with a season-best team performance.

Overall, this is a very good field of teams with some top talent ... Perhaps half the field has the talent to challenge for a podium position IF the team, as a whole, can perform ... As noted above, some of the teams are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams ... This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.

Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and predicting the exact order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note: I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off" races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run well).

Remember ... the Portland Meadows course in early December tends to be an "equalizer" ... Teams performing at (or above) performance levels getting them to Portland Meadows jump up significantly in projected finish-positions.

Individual Team Comments:

Christian Brothers NJ ... CBA-NJ finished 4th in the swamp conditions at NXN last year ... CBA was the NXN Champion in 2011 and they were 5th at NXN 2010 ... CBA has experience and demonstrated ability at Portland Meadows ... At the NXN Northeast regional, CBA rested their #4 runner and their top runner (Mike McClemens) took a hard fall 1000 meters into the race which helps to explain their lower than expected team performance at the NXN regional ... CBA set a Holmdel Park course record the previous week at the New Jersey Meet of Champions, and that demonstrates their exceptional ability ... CBA has experience, demonstrated ability and team depth which makes CBA a very slight favorite to win.

Gig Harbor WA ... Gig Harbor had an exceptional team performance at the Washington State Meet ... If Gig Harbor can duplicate that effort, they will be very hard to beat ... Team performance was definitely lower at the Northwest Regional, but top runner (Wolfgang Beck) was sick ... CBA's advantage over Gig Harbor is team depth should normal scorers have "off-days".

Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... Fayetteville-Manlius finished 2nd at NXN 2010 and12th at NXN 2011 ... FM had an "unfortunate" beginning in last year's NXN - early in the race, top runner Nick Ryan was basically "tackled" to the ground and four other FM guys were knocked to the ground as well ... two team scorers lost a spike and ran most of the race with one shoe (FM still finished 16th) ... FM's top runner this year is Bryce Millar (won the NY State Meet and he's one of the FM runners who lost a shoe at NXN last year). Team mates Andrew Berge and sophomore Peter Ryan (Nick's brother) are running just behind Millar giving FM a very solid top three scorers ... With improving other runners, FM has a legitimate shot at winning NXN ... FM set the team course record at Bowdoin Park in winning the NXN NY regional.

Arcadia CA ... Arcadia won NXN 2010 and 2012 and finished 4th in 2011 ... As noted as noted in previous years, "been-there-done-that" applies in my book ... Arcadia has proven they can handle Portland Meadows.

American Fork UT ... American Fork finished 2nd at NXN last year with a very good team performance ... American Fork has another good team this year and is capable of challenging for a podium position and a possible win.

North Central WA ... North Central finished 3rd at NXN last year and have two of the top runners in the race (Tanner Anderson and Kai Wilmot).

Brentwood TN ... Brentwood is very solid at the top end ... Team scoring at the #5 position could be problematic with this excellent field of teams.

Northport NY and Liverpool NY ... Wow ... Three New York Boys teams and only two New York Girls teams at NXN 2013 ... NY could have three boys teams finish in the top 10 if all run well ... Unfortunately, I read that Northport's #5 runner at the NXN regional appeared injured after the race and had his foot in a boot (visible in photos); based on that and his lower than normal speed rating, Northport's overall projected score above was increased.

Individual Race Comments:

The table below lists the top runners at NXN 2013 by speed ratings (either overall or selected speed rating) ... Two of the runners in the list finished in the top 10 at NXN 2012, Estavan De La Rosa (Arcadia CA) was 2nd and Obsa Ali (Richfield MN) was 10th .... Both Tanner Anderson (North Central WA) and Cerake Geberkidane (Denver East CO) have had outstanding seasons and enter NXN 2013 as the two favorites to win ... Mike Brannigan (Northport NY) ran an excellent race in winning NXN New York (197 speed rating) and could challenge for the win ... Taylor (Kai) Wilmot (North Central WA) was coming off and injury at last year's NXN race, and has the talent to challenge in this race ... Addison Dehaven (Brookings SD) could surprise the guys at the top ... Estavan De La Rosa (Arcadia CA) was closing very fast at the end of the California State meet race, and definitely seems on the improve (so look out).

Others in the list below are potential contenders ... Look how close this field sets-up (34 guys between 193 and 190 ... that's only a 9 second difference which means little at Portland Meadows)  ... Should be an interesting race.

 

 
Top Individual Runners (Both Team & Individual):  
                                                             
                                                              Speed
Name                  Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------
Tanner Anderson        11      North Central          WA       200      Northwest
Cerake Geberkidane     12      Denver East            CO       198      Southwest    ** Individual
Mike Brannigan         11      Northport              NY       195 *    New York
Taylor (Kai) Wilmot    12      North Central          WA       194      Northwest
Addison Dehaven        12      Brookings              SD       194      Heartland    ** Individual
Estavan De La Rosa     12      Arcadia                CA       193+     California
Obsa Ali               12      Richfield              MN       193      Heartland    ** Individual
Connor McMillan        12      American Fork          UT       193      Southwest
Andrew Rafla           12      Timberline             ID       193      Northwest    ** Individual
Wolfgang Beck          12      Gig Harbor             WA       193      Northwest
Bryce Millar           11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY       192      New York
Tony Russell           12      W Chester Henderson    PA       192      Northeast
Tom O'Neill            12      Middletown North       NJ       192      Northeast    ** Individual
Trevor Hopper          12      Ridgefield             CT       192      Northeast    ** Individual
Conner Mantz           11      Sky View               UT       192      Southwest    ** Individual
Stuart McNutt          11      Blue Valley West       KS       192      Heartland    ** Individual
Aidan Goltra           12      Campolindo             CA       192      California   ** Individual
David Luna             12      Indio                  CA       192      California   ** Individual
Austin Tamagno         12      Brea Olinda            CA       192      California   ** Individual
Chandler Austin        12      Boone                  IA       192      Heartland    ** Individual
Mike McClemens         12      Christian Brothers     NJ       191      Northeast
Blake Haney            12      Stockdale              CA       191      California   ** Individual
Logan Carroll          12      Gig Harbor             WA       191      Northwest
Evan Stifel            12      St. Xavier             OH       191      Midwest
TJ Hornberger          12      Lake Shore             NY       191      New York     ** Individual
Connor Olson           11      Wayzata                MN       191      Heartland
Josh Dyrland           12      Irondequoit            NY       191      New York     ** Individual
Andrew Berge           12      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY       191      New York
Jesse Reiser           11      McHenry                IL       191      Midwest      ** Individual
Tristan Peloquin       11      Gig Harbor             WA       190      Northwest
Albert Meier           12      Boone                  IA       190      Heartland    ** Individual
Taylor Caldwell        12      Brentwood HS           TN       190      Southeast
Aaron Thomas           12      Brentwood HS           TN       190      Southeast
Alec Thomas            12      Brentwood HS           TN       190      Southeast
Benito Muniz           11      Carmel                 NY       190      New York     ** Individual
Aidan Tooker           10      Saratoga               NY       190      New York     ** Individual
Griffin Molino         11      South Williamsport     PA       190      Northeast    ** Individual
Tim McGowan            12      Northport              NY       190      New York
Alan Yoho              12      Flintridge Prep        CA       190      California   ** Individual



Where the BOYS Team Scores came from ... 
  (Overall Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets ...
    See Boys Data File of Team Data ....) 


Team Runners and Ratings by Team:
                                                             Overall
                                                              Speed
Name                  Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------

Connor McMillan        12      American Fork          UT      192.5     Southwest
Zac Jacklin            11      American Fork          UT      188.5     Southwest
Casey Clinger          9       American Fork          UT      180.5     Southwest
Tyler Bell             12      American Fork          UT      177.6     Southwest
Spencer Herzog         12      American Fork          UT      174.6     Southwest
Caleb Thompson         12      American Fork          UT      173.0     Southwest
Jacob Chase            11      American Fork          UT      171.1     Southwest

Estavan De La Rosa     12      Arcadia                CA      193.0     California
Phillip Rocha          10      Arcadia                CA      188.1     California
Josue Gonzalez         12      Arcadia                CA      182.0     California
Jarrick Wenslow        12      Arcadia                CA      180.5     California
Thomas Tran            12      Arcadia                CA      174.7     California
Bryan Ngo              12      Arcadia                CA      169.0     California
Joseph Barajas         12      Arcadia                CA      159.1     California

Taylor Caldwell        12      Brentwood HS           TN      189.0     Southeast
Aaron Thomas           12      Brentwood HS           TN      189.0     Southeast
Alec Thomas            12      Brentwood HS           TN      189.0     Southeast
Coleman Churitch       12      Brentwood HS           TN      183.5     Southeast
Francois Llorens       11      Brentwood HS           TN      163.0     Southeast
Waqqas Fazili          11      Brentwood HS           TN      160.1     Southeast
Ryan Lee               10      Brentwood HS           TN      156.0     Southeast

Ben Veatch             10      Carmel                 IN      185.0     Midwest
Robert Browning        12      Carmel                 IN      181.0     Midwest
Ben Anderson           12      Carmel                 IN      180.0     Midwest
Michael George         12      Carmel                 IN      174.5     Midwest
Thomas Revard          10      Carmel                 IN      173.5     Midwest
Daniel Sechuga         12      Carmel                 IN      172.1     Midwest
Josh Horowitz          12      Carmel                 IN      170.3     Midwest

Kyle Thompson          12      Central Catholic       OR      186.5     Northwest
Sam Truax              11      Central Catholic       OR      177.3     Northwest
Gunnar Vik             11      Central Catholic       OR      175.3     Northwest
Daniel Thompson        10      Central Catholic       OR      175.0     Northwest
Sam Lomax              11      Central Catholic       OR      173.8     Northwest
Jean Baptiste Tooley   11      Central Catholic       OR      169.0     Northwest
Zack Lavier            10      Central Catholic       OR      161.0     Northwest

Mike McClemens         12      Christian Brothers     NJ      191.0     Northeast
Blaise Ferro           10      Christian Brothers     NJ      188.3     Northeast
Tom Rooney             12      Christian Brothers     NJ      187.0     Northeast
Fran Bogan             12      Christian Brothers     NJ      183.1     Northeast
Mike Cassidy           12      Christian Brothers     NJ      178.0     Northeast
Nick Trigani           10      Christian Brothers     NJ      176.0     Northeast
Greg Paugh             11      Christian Brothers     NJ      175.9     Northeast

Jake Ogden             10      Dana Hills             CA      184.3     California
Gavin Diem             12      Dana Hills             CA      180.5     California
Alex Smith             11      Dana Hills             CA      178.0     California
Mason Coppi            10      Dana Hills             CA      177.0     California
Timothy Wilson         12      Dana Hills             CA      168.5     California
Wyler Svoboda          12      Dana Hills             CA      168.2     California
Joey Benrubi           12      Dana Hills             CA      167.9     California

Skylar Williams        12      Davis                  UT      182.7     Southwest
Stokton Smith          11      Davis                  UT      175.0     Southwest
Josh Ward              11      Davis                  UT      174.9     Southwest
Logan Mackay           10      Davis                  UT      172.3     Southwest
Colton Rimann          10      Davis                  UT      169.5     Southwest
Kimball Potter         12      Davis                  UT      167.2     Southwest
Colter Blanchard       10      Davis                  UT      164.9     Southwest

Matt Lumbar            12      Edina                  MN      182.4     Heartland
Logan Ramlet           11      Edina                  MN      180.7     Heartland
David Ellenberger      12      Edina                  MN      173.3     Heartland
Jonathan Shirley       10      Edina                  MN      173.0     Heartland
Henry Jessen           12      Edina                  MN      171.0     Heartland
Sam Thomas             10      Edina                  MN      166.5     Heartland
Luke Lumbar            12      Edina                  MN      160.1     Heartland

Bryce Millar           11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      192.4     New York
Andrew Berge           12      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      190.6     New York
Peter Ryan             10      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      188.6     New York
Adam Hunt              11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      178.6     New York
Kyle Barber            11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      178.6     New York
Riley Hughes           11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      165.2     New York
Patrick Perry          9       Fayetteville-Manlius   NY      160.0     New York

Wolfgang Beck          12      Gig Harbor             WA      191.9     Northwest
Logan Carroll          12      Gig Harbor             WA      190.9     Northwest
Tristan Peloquin       11      Gig Harbor             WA      189.4     Northwest
Mahmoud Moussa         12      Gig Harbor             WA      185.0     Northwest
Michael Hammer         11      Gig Harbor             WA      175.2     Northwest
Jordan Oldenburg       12      Gig Harbor             WA      165.0     Northwest
Jack Shields           9       Gig Harbor             WA      161.0     Northwest

Billy Magnesen         12      Hinsdale Central       IL      183.0     Midwest
Kevin Huang            12      Hinsdale Central       IL      177.7     Midwest
Tj Caveney             12      Hinsdale Central       IL      176.2     Midwest
Blake Evertsen         9       Hinsdale Central       IL      175.8     Midwest
Matt McBrien           11      Hinsdale Central       IL      169.4     Midwest
Alex Domiano           11      Hinsdale Central       IL      167.3     Midwest
Emmett Scully          12      Hinsdale Central       IL      167.2     Midwest

Chase Van Voorhis      12      Lewisville Hebron      TX      179.5     South
Ethan Davis            11      Lewisville Hebron      TX      170.8     South
Brad White             12      Lewisville Hebron      TX      170.6     South
Michael Summers        11      Lewisville Hebron      TX      169.0     South
Zac Van Voorhis        12      Lewisville Hebron      TX      167.4     South
Drew Cummings          10      Lewisville Hebron      TX      160.1     South
Jordan Bertrand        10      Lewisville Hebron      TX      143.2     South

Dan Muldoon            11      Liverpool              NY      186.9     New York
Ben Petrella           10      Liverpool              NY      184.3     New York
Connor Buck            11      Liverpool              NY      182.9     New York
Dylan McCarthy         11      Liverpool              NY      177.4     New York
Alex Christensen       12      Liverpool              NY      174.8     New York
Nick Leclair           11      Liverpool              NY      169.5     New York
Ryan Comstock          10      Liverpool              NY      154.0     New York

Eduardo Herrera        10      Madera South           CA      186.1     California
David Garcia           12      Madera South           CA      178.2     California
Miguel Villar          9       Madera South           CA      178.1     California
Juan Macias            11      Madera South           CA      176.4     California
Michael Marquez        12      Madera South           CA      176.3     California
Luis Becerra           11      Madera South           CA      167.0     California
Michael Ochoa          9       Madera South           CA      165.5     California

Tanner Anderson        11      North Central          WA      200.0     Northwest
Taylor (Kai) Wilmot    12      North Central          WA      193.5     Northwest
Justin Janke           10      North Central          WA      176.5     Northwest
Andrew Vandine         11      North Central          WA      174.2     Northwest
Oliver Reed            12      North Central          WA      174.1     Northwest
Sam Sjoberg            10      North Central          WA      169.6     Northwest
Mica Jones             10      North Central          WA      155.0     Northwest

Mike Brannigan         11      Northport              NY      194.5     New York
Tim McGowan            12      Northport              NY      189.0     New York
Jack McGowan           12      Northport              NY      182.3     New York
Nick Termine           12      Northport              NY      176.5     New York
Justin Leopold         12      Northport              NY      172.4 ??  New York
Pat Thall              11      Northport              NY      156.0     New York
Rj Acosta              12      Northport              NY      152.2     New York

Ryan Forsyth           12      Severna Park           MD      182.4     Southeast
Kevin Hines            11      Severna Park           MD      182.0     Southeast
Rhys Burgett           12      Severna Park           MD      180.6     Southeast
Jack Kiely             12      Severna Park           MD      173.9     Southeast
Dillon Cooley          12      Severna Park           MD      173.4     Southeast
Clay Whitney           11      Severna Park           MD      171.1     Southeast
JP Hussey              12      Severna Park           MD      162.0     Southeast

Jacob Pickle           12      Southlake Carroll      TX      185.1     South
Connor Hendrickson     12      Southlake Carroll      TX      185.0     South
Eli Canal              11      Southlake Carroll      TX      176.6     South
Johnny Kemps           11      Southlake Carroll      TX      172.0     South
Luke Lanham            11      Southlake Carroll      TX      160.3     South
Ansel Richards         11      Southlake Carroll      TX      157.5     South
Brent Aydon            12      Southlake Carroll      TX      155.0     South

Evan Stifel            12      St. Xavier             OH      191.0     Midwest
Michael Hall           12      St. Xavier             OH      185.5     Midwest
Michael Vitucci        11      St. Xavier             OH      182.4     Midwest
Brad Eagan             11      St. Xavier             OH      174.0     Midwest
Cole Grabowski         11      St. Xavier             OH      172.3     Midwest
Jack Krug              12      St. Xavier             OH      162.0     Midwest
Jax Talbot             12      St. Xavier             OH      160.7     Midwest

Tony Russell           12      W Chester Henderson    PA      192.3     Northeast
Reiny Barchet          12      W Chester Henderson    PA      182.1     Northeast
Alex Knapp             11      W Chester Henderson    PA      179.0     Northeast
Seamus Collins         12      W Chester Henderson    PA      173.0     Northeast
Eric Stratman          12      W Chester Henderson    PA      171.1     Northeast
Ricky Waltz            12      W Chester Henderson    PA      171.0     Northeast
Kevin Moy              12      W Chester Henderson    PA      166.5     Northeast

Connor Olson           11      Wayzata                MN      190.5     Heartland
Jaret Carpenter        10      Wayzata                MN      177.5     Heartland
Aaron Breyer           12      Wayzata                MN      176.5     Heartland
Ian Eklin              11      Wayzata                MN      174.0     Heartland
Nick Shaleen           10      Wayzata                MN      170.7     Heartland
Andrew Quirk           11      Wayzata                MN      168.2     Heartland
Jack Prazich           11      Wayzata                MN      163.5     Heartland

 

GIRLS Projections:

 Girls NXN Projected Team Scores 2013 - Fayetteville-Manlius favored with Great Oak second
 
   Overall Morning-Line Team Scores - Girls            ACTUAL RESULTS 
                                                                                                  Pred
   1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY    135   (New York  )         1   Wayzata MN                108   (5 )
   2   Great Oak             CA    155   (California)         2   Fayetteville-Manlius NY   120   (1 )
   3   Carmel                IN    200   (Midwest   )         3   Davis UT                  157   (7 )
   4   Unionville            PA    201   (Northeast )         4   Carmel IN                 182   (3 )
   5   Wayzata               MN    202   (Heartland )         5   Monarch CO                211   (8 )
   6   Fort Collins          CO    212   (Southwest )         6   Fort Collins CO           212   (6 )
   7   Davis                 UT    213   (Southwest )         7   Unionville PA             214   (4 )
   8   Monarch               CO    232   (Southwest )         8   Great Oak CA              276   (2 )
   9   Bozeman               MT    238   (Northwest )         9   Simi Valley CA            277   (11)
   10  Pennsbury             PA    271   (Northeast )         10  Bozeman ID                278   (9 )
   11  Simi Valley           CA    285   (California)         11  Pennsbury PA              279   (10)
   12  Coe-Brown             NH    326   (Northeast )         12  Davis Senior CA           282   (14)
   13  Assumption            KY    327   (Southeast )         13  Naperville North IL       336   (15)
   14  Davis Senior          CA    332   (California)         14  New Braunfels TX          352   (18)
   15  Naperville North      IL    355   (Midwest   )         15  Saratoga Springs NY       373   (16)
   16  Saratoga              NY    365   (New York  )         16  Assumption KY             376   (13)
   17  Blacksburg            VA    371   (Southeast )         17  Southlake Carroll TX      398   (19)
   18  New Braunfels         TX    372   (South     )         18  Coe-Brown NH              426   (12)
   19  Southlake Carroll     TX    385   (South     )         19  East Ridge NM             430   (20)
   20  East Ridge            MN    399   (Heartland )         20  The Woodlands TX          433   (22)
   21  Bellarmine Prep       WA    420   (Northwest )         21  Blacksburg VA             451   (17)
   22  The Woodlands         TX    425   (South     )         22  Bellarmine Prep WA        521   (21)



      Team Scores Based on                                  Team Scores Based on
     NXN Regional Speed Ratings                              State Meet (or CA Sectional) Speed Ratings

 1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      119    (New York  )        1   Great Oak             CA      105
 2   Great Oak             CA      123    (California)        2   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      116
 3   Davis                 UT      212    (Southwest )        3   Unionville            PA      183
 4   Unionville            PA      212    (Northeast )        4   Pennsbury             PA      203
 5   Fort Collins          CO      217    (Southwest )        5   Wayzata               MN      204
 6   Davis Senior          CA      249    (California)        6   Davis                 UT      211
 7   Wayzata               MN      254    (Heartland )        7   Monarch               CO      225
 8   Monarch               CO      265    (Southwest )        8   Bozeman               MT      242
 9   Simi Valley           CA      272    (California)        9   Naperville North      IL      248
 10  Carmel                IN      287    (Midwest   )        10  Carmel                IN      256
 11  Bozeman               MT      289    (Northwest )        11  Simi Valley           CA      269
 12  Pennsbury             PA      295    (Northeast )        12  Coe-Brown             NH      283
 13  Assumption            KY      315    (Southeast )        13  Saratoga              NY      311
 14  New Braunfels         TX      323    (South     )        14  Fort Collins          CO      340
 15  Blacksburg            VA      326    (Southeast )        15  Davis Senior          CA      360
 16  Coe-Brown             NH      326    (Northeast )        16  Assumption            KY      361
 17  Saratoga              NY      337    (New York  )        17  Bellarmine Prep       WA      401
 18  Southlake Carroll     TX      371    (South     )        18  East Ridge            MN      424
 19  East Ridge            MN      384    (Heartland )        19  New Braunfels         TX      442
 20  The Woodlands         TX      397    (South     )        20  Southlake Carroll     TX      449
 21  Bellarmine Prep       WA      448    (Northwest )        21  Blacksburg            VA      451
 22  Naperville North      IL      450    (Midwest   )        22  The Woodlands         TX      591
		

Pre-Race Comments ... History has a habit of repeating itself and top high school cross country teams have a habit of returning to Portland Meadows ... Eight of the top 10 girls teams from NXN 2012 return to NXN 2013 ... and perennial favorite Fayetteville-Manlius NY is still the favorite.

This race could be more competitive at the top-end than in previous years and a bunch of teams are in the hunt for a podium spot.

Individual Team Comments:

Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Manlius XC Club) ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the seven-time defending National Champion and the favorite once again ... At the beginning of the season, the FM girls seemed vulnerable ... That vulnerability was evident in losses to Unionville PA at both the McQuaid Invitational and the Manhattan Invitational ... Since then, FM has shown some nice improvement and popped excellent performances at both the NY State Meet and NXN-NY regional ... FM typically races very well at Portland Meadows despite the variable conditions and becomes the morning-line favorite for the 7th straight year.

Great Oak CA ... Great Oak CA is virtually even-up with Fayetteville-Manlius based on speed numbers ... In the lists above, Great Oak and FM are very close in team scores based on regional ratings (NXN vs. CA State), and Great Oak is ahead of FM on NY State vs. CA SS Final ratings ... However, Great Oak has not had success in performing well at Portland Meadows in previous years ... Just guessing, but forecast temperatures near 30 degress, plus a soft course, may not be helpful ... I scaled their overall score back somewhat, but that's just a guess ... In last year's swamp, Great Oak's score took a big hit (I don't think that will happen this year).

Carmel IN ... Carmel was 3rd at NXN last year, 5th in 2011 and 7th in 2010 ... If that progression holds-up (7th to 5th to 3rd), 2013 would be 1st ... Carmel is a very good team ... Top runner Kelcy Welch won the Footlocker Midwest race and Carmel has a very strong pack for the next four scorers ... Carmel is good at Portland Meadows ... This is the type of team that springs a winning upset.

Unionville PA ... Unionville beat Fayetteville-Manlius at the McQuaid and Manhattan Invitational races ... Emily Fisher helped Unionville win both those races (she was the #3 runner at McQuaid with a 140 speed rating), but I was told she developed a case of "mono" which curtailed her running (evident from later results) ... she was Unionville's #5 scorer at the NXN regional (109 speed rating) ... IF she was at a level similar to the current #2 and #3 runners, Unionville would be even-up with Fayetteville-Manlius.

Wayzata MN ... Wayzata finished a very good 7th at last year's NXN ... I watched the Roy Griak Invitational webcast this year and was very impressed by the Wayzata girls ... They have an outstanding "pack" of runners at a high level ... Unfortunately, it appears that top runner Anna French developed an injury or sickness following the Griak Invite (she was 2nd to Jordyn Colter at Griak with a 143 rating); she did not race at the NXN Heartland Regional, but did recently race at Footlocker Midwest (128 speed rating).

Fort Collins CO ... Repeating from previous years - Fort Collins is one of those teams capable of elevating their performance level at specific races and courses, and the NXN Southwest Regional and Portland Meadows are examples.

Davis Utah ... an excellent team all season long ... Lost to Fort Collins at the NXN regional by 0.01 seconds.

Simi Valley CA ... Having Sarah Baxter and starting a team score with a "1" is a nice advantage ... If the other 4 scorers can perform well, Simi Valley has a shot at a podium finish.

Saratoga NY ... Saratoga is typically good at Portland Meadows every year ... However, Saratoga has a young team this season ... at the NY State Meet and NXN regional, 3 of Saratoga's scorers were 8th-graders ... The team has had some inconsistent performances this season, but they performed nicely when it counted ... I think Saratoga can improve on the projected 16th-place finish.

Assumption KY ... In the pre-season, I projected Assumption as the #2 team behind Fayetteville-Manlius ... Unfortunately, top runners from last year (Bailey Davis and Katherine Receveur) have been battling injuries all season ... Despite that, Assumption won the NXN Southeast regional.

 

Individual Race Comments:

The individual race features the top three female high school cross country runners in the nation according to most rankers ... Sarah Baxter (Simi Valley CA) is the two-time defending NXN Champion ... Elise Cranny (Niwot CO) and Alexa Efraimson (Camas WA) have both popped some huge victories and speed ratings this season.

I watched the webcast of Sarah Baxter winning the D1 race at the California State Meet ... the course has a significant amount hard-packed dry "dirt" trails ... the lead vehicle was generating lots of dust, and I was wondering about the effect of that dust on Baxter's breathing (she won impressively despite the dust) ... Obviously, Sarah Baxter can race in dry conditions and wet swampy conditions (e.g. NXN 2012) ..... I'm guessing Baxter will set a fairly fast pace at Portland Meadows because Alexa Efraimson and Elise Cranny both have excellent speed ... This could be a really good race.

There is one runner who might be able to contend with the top three, but she is not running NXN (No, I'm not talking about a certain pro runner named Mary) ... I'm talking about Tessa Barrett (Abington Heights PA) who handily won Footlocker Northeast (155 rating) ... she won the PA State Meet (158 rating, beat the top Unionville runner by 36 seconds) ... Not certain how good she is, but she's very good (reminds me of Anna Rohrer from last year entering Footlocker Finals).

This NXN race has a very good field of runners as can be seen from the list below.

 

 
Top Individual Runners (Both Team & Individual):  
                                                             
                                                              Speed
  Name                Grade     School              State     Rating    Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----     ------    ---------
Sarah Baxter           12      Simi Valley            CA       161      California
Elise Cranny           12      Niwot                  CO       159      Southwest    ** Individual
Alexa Efraimson        11      Camas                  WA       159      Northwest    ** Individual
Fiona O'Keeffe         10      Davis Senior           CA       152      California
Taylor Werner          10      Ste. Genevieve         MO       152      Midwest      ** Individual
Marissa Williams       11      Palisades Charter      CA       152      California   ** Individual
Bethany Hasz           10      Alexandria             MN       152      Heartland    ** Individual
Megan Hasz             10      Alexandria             MN       151      Heartland    ** Individual
Bethan Knights         12      Northwood              CA       151      California   ** Individual
Ella Donaghu           10      Grant                  OR       149      Northwest    ** Individual
Courtney Smith         12      Unionville             PA       148      Northeast
Abbie McNulty          12      Bishop Feehan          MA       148      Northeast    ** Individual
Destiny Collins        10      Great Oak              CA       148 *    California
Sarah Robinson         12      Gunn                   CA       148      California   ** Individual
Addi Zerrenner         12      Dos Pueblos            CA       147      California   ** Individual
Kelcy Welch            12      Carmel                 IN       145      Midwest
Annika Avery           11      Fayetteville-Manlius   NY       145 *    New York
Paige Hofstad          10      New Braunfels          TX       145      South
Leigh Moffett          12      Clovis North           CA       145      California   ** Individual
Katie Rainsberger      10      Air Academy            CO       145      Southwest    ** Individual
Autumn Eastman         12      Champlain Valley       VT       144      Northeast    ** Individual
Lauren Gregory         9       Fort Collins           CO       144      Southwest
Abbey Wheeler          10      Elmira District        NY       143      New York     ** Individual
Hannah Gindlesperger   10      Summit                 OR       143      Northwest    ** Individual
McKenzie Yanek         10      Pleasant Valley        IA       143      Heartland    ** Individual
Emma McMillan          10      Barrington             RI       142      Northeast    ** Individual
Nora McUmber           11      Bethesda-Chevy Chase   MD       142      souteast     ** Individual
Danielle Jones         11      Desert Vista           AZ       142      Southwest    ** Individual
Jamie Kempfer          12      Kempfer                MO       142      Midwest      ** Individual



Where the Girls Team Scores came from ... 
  (Overall Ratings based on NXN Regional, State Meet plus other available meets...
    See Girls Data File of Team Data ....)

Team Runners and Ratings by Team:  

                                                             Overall
                                                             Speed
  Name                Grade     School              State    Rating     Region
--------------------  -----    -------------------  -----    ------     ---------

Bailey Davis            12      Assumption            KY      135.0     Southeast
Emily Bean              12      Assumption            KY      129.4     Southeast
Katherine Receveur      12      Assumption            KY      123.0     Southeast
Kenzley Defler          12      Assumption            KY      116.5     Southeast
Kate Crawford           12      Assumption            KY      112.2     Southeast
Sarah Crawford          10      Assumption            KY      110.0     Southeast
Abbie Wright            11      Assumption            KY      108.0     Southeast

Hannah Derby            12      Bellarmine Prep       WA      122.6     Northwest
Emily Thomas            10      Bellarmine Prep       WA      122.0     Northwest
Laura Staeheli          11      Bellarmine Prep       WA      117.3     Northwest
Jordan Thurston         12      Bellarmine Prep       WA      115.8     Northwest
Miranda Ross            11      Bellarmine Prep       WA      115.7     Northwest
Kailey Dubinsky         10      Bellarmine Prep       WA      101.5     Northwest
Hailey Purtzer          10      Bellarmine Prep       WA      92.5      Northwest

Emily Beatty            11      Blacksburg            VA      126.4     Southeast
Bonnie Angermeier       11      Blacksburg            VA      126.1     Southeast
Claire Ewing Nelson     12      Blacksburg            VA      120.8     Southeast
Samantha Marin          9       Blacksburg            VA      116.0     Southeast
Jennifer Fleming        11      Blacksburg            VA      110.5     Southeast
Olivia Hodge            10      Blacksburg            VA      107.3     Southeast
Annie Kay Combs         9       Blacksburg            VA      107.2     Southeast

Piper Meuwissen         9       Bozeman               MT      130.0     Northwest
Caroline Hardin         12      Bozeman               MT      129.0     Northwest
Andie Creel             12      Bozeman               MT      123.5     Northwest
Bridget Creel           11      Bozeman               MT      123.2     Northwest
Aja Starkey             12      Bozeman               MT      121.8     Northwest
Sarah Foster            11      Bozeman               MT      117.3     Northwest
Beth Jansma             11      Bozeman               MT      108.5     Northwest

Kelcy Welch             12      Carmel                IN      145.0     Midwest
Stacy Morozov           10      Carmel                IN      126.8     Midwest
Gina Genco              12      Carmel                IN      124.0     Midwest
Haley Harris            11      Carmel                IN      123.5     Midwest
Kelsey Harris           11      Carmel                IN      123.0     Midwest
Rachael Weesner         12      Carmel                IN      113.0     Midwest
Anna Schmitz            11      Carmel                IN      103.4     Midwest

Hannah Parker           11      Coe-Brown             NH      131.5     Northeast
Elisabeth Danis         10      Coe-Brown             NH      129.4     Northeast
Jessie Carney           12      Coe-Brown             NH      123.7     Northeast
Brooke Laskowsky        10      Coe-Brown             NH      115.1     Northeast
Megan Scannell          10      Coe-Brown             NH      109.5     Northeast
Katelynn Scannell       11      Coe-Brown             NH      97.5      Northeast
Mary Fowler             12      Coe-Brown             NH      88.0      Northeast

Aubrey Argyle           9       Davis                 UT      133.0     Southwest
Taylor Cox              12      Davis                 UT      131.5     Southwest
Ashley Tyndall          12      Davis                 UT      124.7     Southwest
McKenzie Weir           12      Davis                 UT      123.4     Southwest
Sierra Graham           12      Davis                 UT      120.5     Southwest
Hannah Albrechtsen      12      Davis                 UT      120.0     Southwest
Ally Geisler            9       Davis                 UT      119.2     Southwest

Fiona O'Keeffe          10      Davis Senior          CA      152.5     California
Sofia Castiglioni       9       Davis Senior          CA      133.0     California
Giulia McIsaac          11      Davis Senior          CA      118.5     California
Sophie Meads            12      Davis Senior          CA      113.0     California
Maggie McManis          11      Davis Senior          CA      112.0     California
Jeanne-Mari McPherson   11      Davis Senior          CA      103.0     California
Elisa McIsaal           11      Davis Senior          CA      70.2      California

Bailey Ness             12      East Ridge            MN      133.7     Heartland
Emily Betz              11      East Ridge            MN      131.1     Heartland
Brenley Goertzen        11      East Ridge            MN      112.0     Heartland
Olivia Hummel           10      East Ridge            MN      111.0     Heartland
Sandra Gramer           12      East Ridge            MN      109.8     Heartland
Megan Schiferl          9       East Ridge            MN      100.0     Heartland
Anna Betz               10      East Ridge            MN      84.0      Heartland

Annika Avery            11      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      144.0     New York
Alana Pearl             12      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      137.0     New York
Jenna Farrell           10      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      134.5     New York
Jessica Howe            11      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      131.0     New York
Megan Menz              10      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      121.8     New York
Samantha Levy           10      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      115.0     New York
Olivia Ryan             11      Fayetteville-Manlius  NY      115.0     New York

Lauren Gregory          9       Fort Collins          CO      144.5     Southwest
Devynn Miller           11      Fort Collins          CO      128.2     Southwest
Audrey Oweimrin         12      Fort Collins          CO      124.6     Southwest
Heather Holt            11      Fort Collins          CO      123.3     Southwest
Kari Van Zyl            12      Fort Collins          CO      119.0     Southwest
Sam Mueller             11      Fort Collins          CO      114.3     Southwest
Abbey Ervin             12      Fort Collins          CO      113.3     Southwest

Destiny Collins         10      Great Oak             CA      144.0     California
Haley Dorris            12      Great Oak             CA      140.5     California
Ashley Helbig           12      Great Oak             CA      134.5     California
Desiree Stinger         10      Great Oak             CA      126.1     California
Kiyena Beatty           9       Great Oak             CA      123.0     California
Christian Calain        12      Great Oak             CA      119.0     California
Maiya Larsen            11      Great Oak             CA      116.0     California

Kaitlyn Benner          12      Monarch               CO      130.0     Southwest
Claire Green            12      Monarch               CO      129.3     Southwest
Ashley Litoff           12      Monarch               CO      125.6     Southwest
Holly Bent              9       Monarch               CO      123.7     Southwest
Audrey Lookner          9       Monarch               CO      119.0     Southwest
Karina Mann             11      Monarch               CO      113.2     Southwest
Elissa Mann             11      Monarch               CO      107.0     Southwest

DeTurris Elly           11      Naperville North      IL      131.7     Midwest
Maria McDaniel          12      Naperville North      IL      124.0     Midwest
Claire Hamilton         9       Naperville North      IL      120.0     Midwest
Emory Griffin           10      Naperville North      IL      114.4     Midwest
Judy Pendergast         10      Naperville North      IL      114.3     Midwest
Ella Guppy              10      Naperville North      IL      109.6     Midwest
Jenny Gibson            12      Naperville North      IL      94.8      Midwest

Paige Hofstad           10      New Braunfels         TX      145.0     South
Morgan Szekely          12      New Braunfels         TX      133.5     South
Mia Hofstad             12      New Braunfels         TX      113.0     South
Keomi Hamlin            11      New Braunfels         TX      112.6     South
Gabby Thompson          12      New Braunfels         TX      108.0     South
Emily Wilson            11      New Braunfels         TX      100.0     South
Mallory Gallaher        10      New Braunfels         TX      90.0      South

Hannah Molloy           10      Pennsbury             PA      133.7     Northeast
Olivia Sargent          10      Pennsbury             PA      132.1     Northeast
Erica Gray              12      Pennsbury             PA      127.3     Northeast
Meridith Twomey         10      Pennsbury             PA      118.0     Northeast
Bailey Balmer           10      Pennsbury             PA      113.5     Northeast
Erin O'Connell          11      Pennsbury             PA      100.0     Northeast
Anna Cruser             11      Pennsbury             PA      75.0      Northeast

Samantha Vetter         8       Saratoga              NY      125.1     New York
Carley Vetter           8       Saratoga              NY      120.5     New York
Spencer Hayes           11      Saratoga              NY      120.0     New York
Estela Smith            11      Saratoga              NY      119.0     New York
Peyton Engborg          8       Saratoga              NY      118.0     New York
Sarah Morin             12      Saratoga              NY      115.0     New York
Gabrielle Robens        10      Saratoga              NY      106.0     New York

Sarah Baxter            12      Simi Valley           CA      161.0     California
Desirae Jones           11      Simi Valley           CA      123.5     California
Kaitlyn Wood            9       Simi Valley           CA      122.0     California
Samantha Barajas        9       Simi Valley           CA      120.0     California
Charlotte Utash         12      Simi Valley           CA      118.5     California
Olivia Rosellini        11      Simi Valley           CA      117.5     California
Sarah Riggs             11      Simi Valley           CA      110.0     California

Antigone Archer         10      Southlake Carroll     TX      130.0     South
Samantha Young          12      Southlake Carroll     TX      127.0     South
Katherine Burnham       12      Southlake Carroll     TX      124.0     South
Moriah Dadson           12      Southlake Carroll     TX      106.0     South
Kayli Jones             10      Southlake Carroll     TX      102.0     South
Arianna Lopez           9       Southlake Carroll     TX      96.5      South
Haley McFadden          12      Southlake Carroll     TX      88.0      South

Madi McLellan           12      The Woodlands         TX      135.6     South
Kara Zuspan             12      The Woodlands         TX      120.0     South
Abbey Piontek           11      The Woodlands         TX      118.5     South
Ashley Jansen           12      The Woodlands         TX      111.3     South
Meghan Brown            11      The Woodlands         TX      103.4     South
Lindsay Creasman        9       The Woodlands         TX      92.0      South
Lauren Porter           12      The Woodlands         TX      91.0      South

Courtney Smith          12      Unionville            PA      148.0     Northeast
Olivia Young            11      Unionville            PA      136.7     Northeast
Kacie Breeding          10      Unionville            PA      131.5     Northeast
Gretchen Mills          11      Unionville            PA      122.4     Northeast
Emily Fisher            12      Unionville            PA      114.0     Northeast
Elizabeth Edwards       9       Unionville            PA      112.0     Northeast
Bridgette Zerbe         11      Unionville            PA      101.0     Northeast

Anna French             11      Wayzata               MN      130.0 ??  Heartland
Annika Lerdall          9       Wayzata               MN      128.0     Heartland
Annika Halverson        12      Wayzata               MN      126.2     Heartland
Mary Franke             12      Wayzata               MN      124.4     Heartland
Michaela Keller-Miller  10      Wayzata               MN      124.1     Heartland
Alayna Sonnesyn         12      Wayzata               MN      121.2     Heartland
McKenna Evans           12      Wayzata               MN      119.5     Heartland
Jaycie Thomsen          9       Wayzata               MN      103.0     Heartland