My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2013 XC season into 2014 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results in 2014 will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2014 race results are what count.
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2014
NXN
School State Score Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 260 New York
2 Great Oak CA 290 California
3 Fort Collins CO 310 Southwest
4 Saratoga NY 320 New York
5 Cherry Creek CO 335 Southwest
6 Glenbard West IL 340 Midwest
7 Pennsbury PA 360 Northeast
8 Unionville PA 361 Northeast
9 Wayzata MN 375 Heartland
10 Davis UT 380 Southwest
11 Saugus CA 390 California
12 Redondo Union CA 391 California
13 Trabuco Hills CA 392 California
14 Elmira District NY 393 New York
15 La Salle RI 395 Northeast
16 Capistrano Valley CA 400 California
17 Naperville North IL 410 Midwest
18 Davis Senior CA 411 California
19 Coeur D'Alene ID 412 Northwest
20 Desert Vista AZ 420 Southwest
21 Oakton VA 425 Southeast
22 Simi Valley CA 430 California
23 Summit OR 435 Northwest
24 Blacksburg VA 440 Southeast
25 Green Hope NC 445 Southeast
26 Carmel IN 450 Midwest
27 New Trier IL 455 Midwest
28 Birmingham Seaholm MI 460 Midwest
29 Mountain Brook AL 465 Southeast
30 Bozeman MT 470 Northwest
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled a lot:
Coe-Brown NH Northeast
Campolindo CA California
Vista Murrieta CA California
Bella Vista CA California
Suffern NY New York
Arroyo Grande CA California
Buchanan CA California
Burnt Hills NY New York
American Fork UT Southwest
Mason OH Midwest
Lincoln-Sudbury MA Northeast
Shenendehowa NY New York
Holy Trinity FL Southeast
West Lafayette IN Midwest
Xavier College Prep AZ Southwest
Willmar MN Heartland
Red Bank Catholic NJ Northeast
Tatnall DE Southeast
Southlake Carroll TX South
San Clemente CA California
Serrano CA California
Mira Costa CA California
La Costa Canyon CA California
Needham MA Northeast
Naperville (Central) IL Midwest
Columbus North IN Midwest
Hamilton Southeastern IN Midwest
Monarch CO Southwest
Ames IA Heartland
Bismarck Century ND Heartland
College Park TX South
Randolph NJ Northeast
Hinsdale IL Midwest
Tahoma WA Northwest
Lakeville South MN Heartland
Bellarmine Prep WA Northwest
Palatine IL Midwest
Tolland CT Northeast
Hamilton-Wenham MA Northeast
South Eugene OR Northwest
Saline MI Midwest
Los Alamos NM Southwest
Ridgewood NJ Northeast
Bethesda-Chevy MD Southeast
Flower Mound TX South
The Woodlands TX South (added Aug 21 based on a transfer)
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2013 seasonal speed ratings
(sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I had to)
... Speed
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season
).