Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   27           Fayetteville-Manlius    24
  2   Liverpool              34           Liverpool               45
  3   Baldwinsville         128           West Genesee           123
  4   Cicero-North Syracuse 133           Baldwinsville          129
  5   West Genesee          135           Cicero-North Syracuse  175
  6   Central Square        175           Auburn                 177
  7   Auburn                190           Central Square         193
  8   Rome                  230           Syracuse West          238
  9   Proctor               239           Rome Free Academy      239
  10  Syracuse West         252           Proctor                251
  11  Syracuse East         299           Syracuse East          252
  
			

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool are currently the top-ranked teams in NY State (all classes) ... Both are ranked in the top ten nationally ... Unfortunately, one of best teams in the entire State and Nation will not qualify for the NY State Meet since only the winning team advances to States.

FM beat Liverpool at both McQuaid (50 to 72) and Manhattan (80 to 122) ... However, the limited number of teams and competition in this Class A race indicates the score will be much closer ... Effectively, this race looks like a dual meet between FM and Liverpool ... The five scorers for each team are all ranked in the top 13 of the current Section 3 Class A leaderboard ... The other 3 runners (from Proctor and West Genesee) could have a big impact on the team scoring depending on where they finish and displace scorers from FM and Liverpool.

Fayetteville-Manlius is the favorite, but Liverpool is within striking distance ... The weather forecast for Saturday has temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s, breezy with possible rain or snow showers ... The VVS course is already wet (teams were not allowed to train on it) ... Under cold wet conditions, the VVS course can be expected to run relatively slow ... This is very different from the conditions at McQuaid or the short 4K Manhattan Invite ... The effect of the longer distance (a real 5K) and challenging conditions (cold, wind, mud, soft turf) remains to be seen for all runners at this sectional championship meet ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the Class A favorite, but Liverpool could make this race very interesting.

Baldwinsville, CNS and West Genesee look fairly evenly matched  ... The numbers give Baldwinsville a slight edge (they finished ahead of CNS and West Genesee in the Manhattan merge).

Individual Race ...Bryce Millar (FM) is the top-ranked Class A runner in Section 3 (and NY State) ... Ben Petrella (Liverpool), Peter Ryan (FM) and Kyle Barber (FM) are equally rated at the next three spots ... The top five individuals, not on the winning team, qualify as individuals for the State Meet.
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ===================  =====
  1   Carthage               90           Carthage                72
  2   Whitesboro             99           Whitesboro              79
  3   New Hartford          107           Marcellus              115
  4   Marcellus             140           New Hartford           142
  5   Fulton                146           Chittenango            149
  6   Chittenango           147           Fulton                 165
  7   Jamesville Dewitt     151           Jamesville-Dewitt      188
  8   Oneida                234           Oneida                 234
  9   Cortland              257           Cortland               276
  10  East Syracuse-Minoa   275           East Syracuse-Minoa    284
  11  Homer                 303           Homer                  297
  12  Indian River          338           Camden                 298
  13  Camden                351           Indian River           361
  14  Mexico                391           Mexico                 374
  15  Central Valley        404           Central Valley         390
  16  Oswego                414           Oswego                 409
  17  Watertown             479           Watertown              443
  18  VVS                   493           VVS                    479

Pre-Race Analysis ... Carthage gets a slight edge over Whitesboro and New Hartford in a potentially close contest ... Carthage was helped this season by transfer runners Noah and Sam Affolder who came from Illinois ... Carthage is the Frontier League champion and they recently won the Marathon Invitational.

New Hartford beat Whitesboro by one point at the TVL League Championship meet ... Last week, Whitesboro beat New Hartford at the Adirondack Invitational (59-76) ... Earlier in the season (Oct 11), Carthage beat Whitesboro at Rome Coughlin Invite (81-88) ... This race could be a very close.

Individual Race ... Noah Affolder (Carthage) is the top-rated Class B runner in NY State and is the solid favorite to win this race ... Patrick Dye (JD), Sam Affolder (Carthage), Jake Zedack (Mexico) and Pat McGuane (Marcellus) are the next top-rated runners in Class B.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Adirondack             65           Adirondack              48
  2   Holland Patent         76           Holland Patent          66
  3   Westhill-Ludden        90           Westhill-Ludden        111
  4   Jordan-Elbridge        93           Jordan-Elbridge        127
  5   Cazenovia             148           Cazenovia              159
  6   Hannibal              176           Clinton                161
  7   Port Byron            189           Hannibal               190
  8   Clinton               204           Port Byron             255
  9   Phoenix               253           Phoenix                287
  10  APW                   285           South Jefferson        298
  11  Skaneateles           295           Skaneateles            308
  12  South Jefferson       324           APW                    317
  13  Solvay                348           Herkimer               333
  14  Canastota             377           Solvay                 364
  15  Sherburne-Earlville   425           Canastota              394
  16  Little Falls          442           Sherburne-Earlville    412
                                          Little Falls           468

Pre-Race Analysis ... Adirondack beat Holland Patent at the CSC Conference Championship (40-66) and Adirondack beat Holland Patent at the recent Adirondack Invitational (59-80) ... and that makes Adirondack the favorite ...  But Holland Patent is the defending State Class C champion and they run their best at this point in the season, so don't be surprised if they win this race.

Jordan-Elbridge beat Westhill-Ludden by one point at the OHSL Liberty Championship ... both teams are not far behind the top two.

Individual Race ... Jason McFarland (Hannibal) is the top-rated Class C runner ... Connor Hrynuk (Adirondack),  Ryan O'Rourke (Adirondack) and Dominic Morganti (CBA) are the next top-rated runners in Class C.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Beaver River           72           Beaver River            50
  2   Sauquoit Valley        89           Sauquoit Valley         89
  3   Utica Notre Dame       90           Utica Notre Dame       100
  4   Onondaga              118           Tully                  101
  5   Tully                 119           Onondaga               165
  6   New York Mills        219           New York Mills         217
  7   Weedsport             245           Weedsport              218
  8   Oriskany              259           Oriskany               237
  9   Pulaski               265           South Lewis            274
  10  LaFayette             318           Cooperstown            291
  11  Cato-Meridian         327           LaFayette              303
  12  South Lewis           351           Pulaski                313
  13  Fabius-Pompey         352           Fabius-Pompey          327
  14  Sandy Creek           369           Sandy Creek            330
  15  Cooperstown           381           West Canada            415
  16  Blessed Virgin Mary   405           Hamilton               443
  17  West Canada           428           MPH                    478
  18  Hamilton              457           Blessed Virgin Mary    496
  19  MPH                   491           Dolgeville             525
  20  Remsen                545           Poland                 609
  21  Poland                545

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River has been running well ... At the Frontier League Championship, Beaver River lost to Carthage (the Class B favorite above) by only a small margin (33-39) ... Beaver River beat the improving Utica Notre Dame team at the Adirondack Invite by a small margin (30-38).

Utica Notre Dame finished 3rd at the TVL League Championship, but they were close to Class B teams New Hartford and Whitesboro (64-65-72).

Sauquoit Valley, another improving team, finished a good 3rd at the CSC Conference Championship behind Class C favorites Adirondack and and Holland Patent (40-66-70).

The numbers make Beaver River the favorite, but this race could be close.

Individual Race ... Connor Oakman (Lafayette) is the top-rated Class D runner ... A bunch of runners are then closely rated, and includes Dylan Durgan (South Lewis), Dan Hillman (Utica Notre Dame), Cole Blocher (Sauquoit), Leif Ostrum (South Lewis) Brett Neddo (Beaver River), Richard Liddiard (Weedsport) and Brad Phelps (Tully).

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================== ====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   19           Fayetteville-Manlius   21
  2   West Genesee           76           West Genesee           61
  3   Liverpool              84           Liverpool              75
  4   Baldwinsville          96           Baldwinsville         115
  5   Cicero-North Syracuse 122           Rome Free Academy     123
  6   Rome                  124           Cicero-North Syracuse 132
  7   Central Square        212           Central Square        229
  8   Auburn                254           Auburn                271
  9   Syracuse West         299           Syracuse West         284
  10  Proctor               304           Syracuse East         290
  11  Syracuse East         324
 
								

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius scored a perfect 15 in four of the last seven years at sectionals (but not last year) ... Carly Benson (West Genesee) is likely to disrupted the perfect score by finishing in the top five.

Fayetteville-Manlius is one of the top five teams in the nation ... FM showed they were vulnerable by their performance at McQuaid ...FM bounced back nicely at the Manhattan Invite and posted some very good numbers ... But for national rankings, I have a problem with the Manhattan Invite due to its short distance of only 4K ... This sectional race at VVS should give a better indication of how FM rates on a tough course ... The Class A race at States will be loaded with excellent teams and runners from around the State and should be a good test of overall performance for all NY teams.

West Genesee and Liverpool are not separated by much for the runner-up spot (potential implication for a Federation "at-large" bid).

Individual Race ... Annika Avery (FM) and Carly Benson (West Genesee)  are the top-rated runners in Section 3 ... They are followed by four FM runners.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Jamesville Dewitt      63           Jamesville-Dewitt      53
  2   New Hartford           85           New Hartford           76
  3   Chittenango           110           Chittenango           136
  4   Homer                 126           Whitesboro            147
  5   Marcellus             169           East Syracuse-Minoa   165
  6   Whitesboro            181           Cortland              183
  7   East Syracuse-Minoa   192           Homer                 190
  8   Cortland              194           Marcellus             201
  9   Carthage              239           Carthage              222
  10  Oswego                252           Oswego                250
  11  Oneida                260           Oneida                254
  12  Central Valley        299           Central Valley        278
  13  Indian River          347           Watertown             316
  14  Watertown             372           Indian River          343
  15  Fulton                387
  
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... Jamesville-Dewitt won the the OHSL Freedom Meet and beat Homer and East Syracuse-Minoa (52-72-92) ... With both teams at full strength at the Manhattan Invite (I think), Jamesville-Dewitt beat Chittenango in the Varsity C race ... Jamesville-Dewitt finished 58th in the Manhattan Merge, while New Hartford finished 69th and Chittenango 70th.

New Hartford recently won the Varsity 1 race at the Adirondack Invitational.

Chittenango finished 6th at the OHSL Freedom Champion, but top-rated runner Anna Galbraith did not race (she has has not raced since the Manhattan Invitational) ... the Chittenango score above assumes she does race.

Individual Race ... Class B has several closely-rated runners at the top including Natalie Marra (ESM), Anna Galbraith (Chittenango), Justyna Wilkinson (Whitesboro) and Hannah Butler (JD) ... the race for the individual title could be close.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Westhill-Ludden        44           Westhill-Ludden        46
  2   Skaneateles            71           Cazenovia              87
  3   Cazenovia             115           Skaneateles           112
  4   South Jefferson       121           South Jefferson       123
  5   Hannibal              133           Hannibal              130
  6   Jordan-Elbridge       160           Jordan-Elbridge       148
  7   Clinton               179           Clinton               158
  8   Canastota             196           Canastota             176
  9   Little Falls          274           Holland Patent        217
  10  Holland Patent        281           Little Falls          228
  11  Phoenix               338           Phoenix               332
  12  Port Byron            341           Sherburne-Earlville   355
  13  CBA                   363           Herkimer              376
  14  APW                   369
  15  Sherburne-Earlville   421
  16  Herkimer              429

							

Pre-Race Analysis ... Westhill-Ludden won the Section 3 Class B title last year, and this year, Westhill-Ludden dropped to Class C ... Westhill-Ludden beat Skaneateles and Cazenovia at the OHSL Liberty Championship meet (37-63-73) which makes them a solid favorite in this race.

Individual Race ... Kaitlyn Neal (Skaneateles) is currently the top-rated Class C runner in Section 3 ... she is also the #2-rated Class C runner in NY State, and that makes her the favorite to win the individual title ... But within striking distance are Clara Rowles (Cazenovia), Genny Corcoran (Westhill-Ludden) and Abby Gugle (Jordan-Elbridge).

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Tully                  65           Tully                  52
  2   Beaver River           77           Beaver River           71
  3   Sauquoit Valley        87           Sauquoit Valley       114
  4   South Lewis           117           South Lewis           115
  5   Cooperstown           135           Cooperstown           148
  6   Hamilton              199           Hamilton              151
  7   Pulaski               221           New York Mills        177
  8   New York Mills        221           Pulaski               246
  9   Onondaga              227           Westmoreland          267
  10  Fabius-Pompey         256           Fabius-Pompey         271
  11  LaFayette             333           Onondaga              300
  12  Old Forge             334           Old Forge             315
  13  Westmoreland          340           Cato-Meridian         344
  14  Cato-Meridian         350           Sandy Creek           354
  15  Poland                350           LaFayette             377
  16  Sandy Creek           393           Poland                441
  17  Oriskany              468           Oriskany              458
  18  MPH                   512           MPH                   498
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... The girls Class D race includes 4 of the 8 top-ranked Class D teams in NY State ... Tully is ranked #1 in one State list (NY MileSplit) and 3rd in another (NY Sports Writers Association) ... Tully is the defending Section 3 Class D champion and the defending NY State champion.

Tully won the OHSL Patriot Championship meet and beat Beaver River in a division of the Chittenango Invitational (53-70 on Oct 18th).

Beaver River won the Frontier League Championship over South Lewis (26-47) and repeated that victory in the recent Adirondack Invitational (29-44).

Sauquoit Valley won the CSC Conference Championship meet beating Cooperstown and Hamilton (73-82-102).

Individual Race ... Sage Hurta (Hamilton) is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and the solid favorite to win the individual title ... Ashleigh Crawford (Tully) and Kristin Ratliff (Cooperstown) are the #2 and #3-rated runners.