Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
To a large extent, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2014 XC season into 2015 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below ... With rare exceptions, I ignored last year's modified runners.
I limited the Combined Class list to 37 teams after starting with 70+ teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class because some people are interested
... A lot can change between mid-July and November.
Pre-Season Projection - New York Girls Team Contenders - 2015
---------------------------------------
Scores Using Top 37 Teams
---------------------------------------
Section-
Team Score Class
--------------------- ----- --------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 120 (03-A )
2 Saratoga 130 (02-A )
3 Shenendehowa 160 (02-A )
4 Monroe-Woodbury 340 (09-A )
5 Burnt Hills 350 (02-B )
6 North Rockland 375 (01-A )
7 North Shore 380 (08-B )
8 East Aurora 400 (06-C )
9 Sachem East 410 (11-A )
10 Suffern 415 (01-A )
11 Guilderland 430 (02-A )
12 Bronxville 435 (01-C )
13 Shoreham Wading River 450 (11-B )
14 Queensbury 490 (02-B )
15 Pearl River 495 (01-B )
16 Elmira District 500 (04-A )
17 Syosset 520 (08-A )
18 Notre Dame (CHSAA) 525 (CHSAA)
19 Colonie 526 (02-A )
20 Webster Thomas 545 (05-A )
21 Warwick Valley 550 (09-A )
22 Greenwich 560 (02-D )
23 Niskayuna 590 (02-A )
24 Westhill-Ludden 600 (03-B )
25 Corning 605 (04-A )
26 John Jay CR 615 (01-B )
27 Northport 620 (11-A )
28 Shaker 630 (02-A )
29 Bay Shore 650 (11-A )
30 Liverpool 670 (03-A )
31 Penfield 690 (05-A )
32 Lakeland-Panas 700 (01-A )
33 Honeoye Falls-Lima 710 (05-B )
34 Tully 715 (03-D )
35 Ithaca 735 (04-A )
36 Clarence 760 (06-A )
37 West Genesee 761 (03-A )
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using
2014
seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed ratings were altered based on
track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers because I wanted
to
... and then adjusted final scores for various reasons.
Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 37 teams to show some depth.
In General ... The top three teams, Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga and Shenendehowa, are the three New York teams that competed at NXN Nationals last year ..... Fayetteville-Manlius is the defending NXN National champion and FM has won 8 of the last 9 NXN National titles ... Overall, I give Fayetteville-Manlius a slight advantage because of their winning tradition and an ability to reload ... BUT this season might be a very close competition with other teams and it depends on a variety of factors that are uncertain at this time ... It is conceivable that Fayetteville-Manlius could end up as the #3 NY team at the NXN New York Regional.
The uncertainty factors include the ability to reload effectively and the impact of new runners, either expected or otherwise ... My term for this is "new blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc) which I discussed in an article 8 years ago ... For example, how much of an impact will new runners have for FM and Saratoga (such as Phobe White and Kelsey Chmiel)?? ... How much will returning XC runners improve from last year?? ... What about effective team depth or the impact of an injury/illness??
Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga and Shenendehowa have additional comments below in the Class A section.
Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier.
.
... We won't know until the season begins ... Saratoga looks deep
at a high level, and that's before the inclusion of the "new" runner
Kelsey Chmiel who was very good in track ... Saratoga has all the
ingredients of a top State and National team, but more on that when I
post my Pre-season National Team Rankings ... As good as Saratoga
looks, they first need to get by Shenendehowa at sectionals to
make it to the State Meet ... Last year, Saratoga beat
Shenendehowa at sectionals in a tie-breaker ....... New York lays claim to being the only State in the US that excludes nationally
ranked teams from their State Meet because they did not win a sectional
race
.