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|Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2015|
Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 28, 2015
|Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 25, 2015 .... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 28, 2015|
.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 28, 2015
|NOTE ... the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries|
NXN-NY Info at: http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny
[ Club names with associated schools of NY Championship teams ]
[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]
|Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Liverpool the favorite|
Projected ACTUAL School Score Section School Score ==================== ======= ======= ===================== ===== 1 Liverpool 110 (03-A ) Liverpool 77 2 Fayetteville-Manlius 120 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 107 3 East Aurora 139 (06-C ) East Aurora 109 4 Pittsford Mendon 159 (05-B ) St. Anthony's 146 5 St. Anthony's 161 (CHSAA) Xavier 153 6 Xavier 163 (CHSAA) Pittsford Mendon 175 7 Corning 175 (04-A ) Guilderland 209 8 Saratoga 251 (02-A ) Maine-Endwell 241 9 Maine-Endwell 291 (04-B ) Mount Academy 247 10 Guilderland 292 (02-A ) Corning 260 11 Ithaca 298 (04-A ) Arlington 270 12 Arlington 302 (01-A ) Ithace 284 13 Mount Academy 357 (09-C ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 308 14 Honeoye Falls-Lima 374 (05-B ) Sachem East 408 15 Sachem East 385 (11-A ) Baldwinsville 421 16 Baldwinsville 422 (03-A ) Somers 432 17 Northport 481 (11-A ) Northport 466 18 Syosset 483 (08-A ) Manhasset 497 19 Somers 501 (01-B ) Webster Thomas 513 20 Webster Thomas 510 (05-A ) Commack 567 21 Commack 529 (11-A ) Queensbury 581 22 Queensbury 567 (02-B ) Elmira 611 23 Suffern 591 (01-A ) Franklin Academy 669 24 Manhasset 609 (08-B ) Ward Melville 674 25 Elmira District 658 (04-A ) Syosset 696 26 Franklin Academy 668 (10-B ) Suffern 699 27 Ward Melville 681 (11-A ) Williamsville South 791 28 Williamsville South 819 (06-B )
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius, Liverpool, East Aurora and Pittsford Mendon skipped the NY Federation Meet ... St. Anthony's and Xavier had a great competition at Federations with St. Anthony's winning by only 2 points (and 3rd-place Guilderland was 127 points back) ... I suspect the week off will help the teams that skipped Feds, but that remains to be seen.
Liverpool edged FM at the sectional championship meet by 4 points and went on to win the State Class A race convincingly ... Liverpool also beat FM at Manhattan, but lost to FM at their league championship meet ... Both teams rate very close, but the edge goes to Liverpool entering the race.
The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto-qualifier to NXN the last seven years! ... Despite losing the sectional race, FM had three runners qualify for States as individuals ... two of the runners dropped-out of the State meet (Peter Ryan and Joe Walters) after sensing discomfort to some existing minor injuries ... How that plays outs in the NXN regional race remains to be seen.
Liverpool and FM are the two favorites for the auto-qualifying spots ... BUT East Aurora, St. Anthony's, Xavier and Pittsford Mendon are not that far behind ... One or two PR performances at the right positions could put any of those teams into contention.
East Aurora gets a slight advantage over the others when looking at best speed ratings over the season ... East Aurora did not over-extend themselves at sectionals due to slow muddy conditions ... East Aurora won comfortably at States on the difficult Monroe-Woodbury course which is not conducive to great speed team ratings, and they finished 2nd to Liverpool in the State Meet merge (ahead of Pittsford Mendon and Corning) .... and Remember - East Aurora and Liverpool tied in their head-to-head race at McQuaid with Liverpool getting the trophy based on a "Jesuit" tie-breaking rule even though East Aurora had the best 6th-man ... I give East Aurora a real legitimate chance of winning an auto-qualifying spot.
I wonder how much the Federation effort of St. Anthony and Xavier will effect this race?? ... it remains to be seen.
Number-wise, not much separates St. Anthony, Xavier and Pittsford Mendon ... and those numbers do put them within striking distance of the top teams.
Note to the 3rd and 4th place finishing teams ... Last four years - It was apparent that the NXN At-Large Selection Committee was using performance at the NXN regional as a primary selection criteria with other criteria (performance at States and major invitational races) as secondary criteria ... I suspect that will continue this year ... So hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th will have really good performances.
It should also be noted that the NXN Northeast regional is being run at Bowdoin Park the same day (as normal) ... Hypothetically, let's assume that a "power-merge" is done by some committee with the top 6-8 teams from the NY and NE regions to compare strengths, especially for the teams that finished 3rd and 4th in the actual races ... Let's hope the NY teams do well.
Individual Race ... Although 4 of the top 10 NY guys are racing at Footlocker Northeast, this could be a very good battle between Ben Petrella, Aidan Tooker, Kenny Vasbinder and others ... The challenging State Meet course at Monroe-Woodbury was good to Ben Petrella ... Aidan Tooker had an excellent performance on this course (Bowdoin Park) last week at Federations.
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Ben Petrella 12 03-A Liverpool 194 NXN Team 2 Aidan Tooker 12 02-A Saratoga 193 NXN Team 3 Noah Affolder 11 03-B Carthage 192 (at Footlocker) 4 Conor Lundy 12 CHS Fordham Prep 190 (at Footlocker) 5 Kenny Vasbinder 12 06-C East Aurora 190 NXN Team 6 Noah Carey 11 02-A Guilderland 189 NXN Team 7 Donny Glavin 12 05-A McQuaid 189 NXN Individual 8 Nathan Lawler 10 05-B Pittsford Mendon 188 NXN Team 9 Dan Schaffer 12 04-B Maine-Endwell 187 NXN Team 10 Eion Nohilly 12 01-B John Jay CR 187 (at Footlocker) 11 Jonathan Lauer 11 11-A Sachem North 185 NXN Individual 12 Peter Ryan 12 03-A FM 184 NXN Team 13 Peter Rindfuss 12 06-B Hamburg 184 NXN Individual 14 Jake Johnson 12 02-A Colonie 184 NXN Individual 15 Christopher Tibbetts 11 11-A Sachem North 184 NXN Individual 16 Paul Dellinger 11 05-B Brighton 184 ----- 17 Ty Brownlow 11 03-A Liverpool 183 NXN Team 18 Patrick Perry 11 03-A FM 183 NXN Team 19 Frederick Buckholtz 12 CHS St. Anthonys 182 NXN Team 20 Sam Affolder 9 03-B Carthage 182 ----- 21 David Leff 11 03-A West Genesee 182 (at Footlocker) 22 Stevie Schulz 11 03-A Liverpool 182 NXN Team 23 Paul Nichols 12 02-A Shaker 182 NXN Individual 24 Matt Adolph 12 09-A Warwick 182 ----- 25 Ryan Kutch 12 CHS St. Anthonys 182 NXN Team 26 Kevin Hazelwood 12 01-B Brewster 181 NXN Individual 27 Ryan Dearie 12 CHS St. Anthonys 181 NXN Team 28 Jake Avery 11 04-A Ithaca 181 NXN Team 29 Connor Doran 11 06-A Lockport 181 NXN Individual 30 Christian Raslowsky 12 CHS Xavier 180 NXN Team 31 Peter Kane 12 04-A Corning 180 NXN Team
|Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again|
Projected ACTUAL School Score Section School Score ==================== ======= ======= ===================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 42 (03-A ) Fayetteville-Manlius 38 2 Saratoga 90 (02-A ) Saratoga 80 3 Shenendehowa 144 (02-A ) North Rockland 117 4 East Aurora 145 (06-C ) Sachem East 146 5 North Rockland 155 (01-A ) East Aurora 164 6 Sachem East 225 (11-A ) Shenendehowa 193 7 John Jay Cross River 232 (01-B ) Webster Thomas 194 8 Webster Thomas 235 (05-A ) Elmira 199 9 Shoreham Wading River 236 (11-B ) John Jay Cross River 225 10 Guilderland 239 (02-A ) Guilderland 238 11 Elmira 255 (04-A ) Ithaca 279 12 North Shore 260 (08-B ) Maple grove 308 13 Maple Grove 330 (06-D ) North Shore 324 14 Ithaca 333 (04-A ) Westhill-Ludden 338 15 Pittsford Mendon 355 (05-B ) Pittsford-Mendon 366 16 Sweet Home 398 (06-B ) 17 Westhill-Ludden 400 (03-B )
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again
... FM and East Aurora skipped Federations to prepare for
Fayetteville-Manlius has been impressive all season, and there is no reason to suspect that will change ... FM beat Saratoga by 49 points at States with only nine teams in the race ... I suspected the Monroe-Woodbury course would be good for FM, and not so good for Saratoga ... But Bowdoin Park is different, and both teams have run well at Bowdoin in the past ... so I'm expecting Saratoga will run well.
Shenendehowa is a question to me ... Shenendehowa ran very nicely at the McQuaid Invitational where they beat Centreville Ohio and East Aurora by 75-81-96 ... Centreville won the NXN Midwest regional ... Should Shenendehowa finish 3rd, they will likely be an "At-Large" selection since they beat a regional winner in a major invitational ... BUT Shenendehowa has not raced as well since McQuaid ... They finished 7th at Federations, but I doubt that was an all-out effort ... If Shenendehowa races as well as they did at McQuaid, they will likely be 3rd unless one of the top two falter ... If this was a betting race, I'm not sure what I would do with Shenendehowa.
East Aurora and North Rockland are very good teams ... North Rockland races well at Bowdoin Park (Section 1 teams use the course all season long) ... The performance by East Aurora at the McQuaid Invitational is worthy of many NXN qualifiers.
I suspect the 3rd-place finishing team will be in running for an "At-Large" NXN bid if they race decently (especially Shenendehowa).
Individual Race ... Jessica Lawson (Corning) has opted for Footlocker this season, but most top NY runners will be at NXN ... The top 5 finishers not on a qualifying team earn a trip to NXN Nationals ... Looks very competitive for both the win and the qualifying spots ... Two Bowdoin Park course record holders are in the race - Mary Hennelly (Suffern) set the 8th-grade record at Feds (18:11.5) and Brooke Rauber (Tully) set the 7th-grade record at Feds (18:35.6).
The Top-Ranked NY Runners: 1 Jessica Lawson 11 04-A Corning 155 (at Footlocker) 2 Abbey Wheeler 12 04-A Elmira District 149 NXN Team 3 Kelsey Chmiel 9 02-A Saratoga 149 NXN Team 4 Claire Walters 8 03-A FM 148 NXN Team 5 Kaitlyn Neal 12 03-A FM 147 NXN Team 6 Diana Vizza 12 08-B North Shore 145 NXN Team 7 Mary Hennelly 8 01-A Suffern 144 NXN Individual 8 Katelyn Tuohy 8 01-A North Rockland 143 NXN Team 9 Carly Benson 10 03-A West Genesee 142 (at Footlocker) 10 Sophia Tasselmyer 12 06-C East Aurora 141 NXN Team 11 Sage Hurta 12 03-D Hamilton 141 (at Footlocker) 12 Alex Harris 11 01-A North Rockland 140 NXN Team 13 Emily Bini 8 02-A Guilderland 140 NXN Team 14 Julia Stevenson 12 AIS Hackley 139 NXN Individual 15 Kathryn Munks 12 09-A Monroe-Woodbury 139 NXN Individual 16 Lauren Chapey 12 01-A Mamaroneck 138 NXN Individual 17 Kaycie Saucier 12 10-D Norwood-Norfolk 138 ----- 18 Rebecca Walters 10 03-A FM 136 NXN Team 19 Palmer Madsen 10 03-A FM 135 NXN Team 20 Brooke Rauber 7 03-D Tully 135 NXN Individual 21 Samantha Levy 12 03-A FM 135 NXN Team 22 Sophia Ryan 10 03-A FM 135 NXN Team 23 Reilly Siebert 10 08-A Syosset 135 (at Footlocker) 24 Peyton Engborg 10 02-A Saratoga 134 NXN Team 25 Alexandra DeCicco 12 11-A Sachem East 134 NXN Team 26 Paris Fenoff 9 02-A Saratoga 133 NXN Team 27 Danielle Jordan 12 02-A Shenendehowa 132 NXN Team 28 Jennie Prial 11 09-A Warwick 132 NXN Individual 29 Katherine Lee 10 11-B Shoreham Wading R 132 NXN Team 30 Megan Reilly 12 09-A Warwick 132 ----- 31 Fiona Danieu 12 06-C East Aurora 131 NXN Team 32 Eva Scott 11 02-B Burnt Hills 131 ----- 33 Samantha Peterman 11 06-B Sweet Home 130 NXN Team 34 Kathryn Tenney 9 02-A Colonie 130 ----- 35 Maryanna Lansing 12 02-A Shaker 130 NXN Individual
|New York NXN Club Names & Associated School|
BOYS CHAMPIONSHIP RACE JAC - Arlington Baldwinsville Harriers - Baldwinsville Commack XC - Commack Corning Track Club - Corning Aurora Runners - East Aurora Express Running Club - Elmira Manlius XC - Fayetteville-Manlius Malone Track Club - Franklin Academy Flying Dutch - Guilderland HFL Cougars XC - Honeoye Falls-Lima Finger Lakes XC - Ithaca Liverpool Warriors - Liverpool Maine-Endwell XC Club - Maine-Endwell Set XC - Manhasset Mount XC - Mount Academy Cow Harbor TC - Northport Vikings XC - Pittsford-Mendon Adirondack Runners - Queensbury Sachem East Running Club - Sachem East Kinetic - Saratoga Tuskers XC - Somers Assisi XC - St. Anthony's Suffern TC - Suffern Syosset XC - Syosset Ward Titans - Ward Melville Titan Ridge Runners - Webster Thomas Will. South XC - Williamsville South Knights - Xavier GIRLS CHAMPIONSHIP RACE Aurora Runners - East Aurora Express Running Club - Elmira Manlius XC - Fayetteville-Manlius Flying Dutch - Guilderland Finger Lakes XC - Ithaca JJXRXC - John Jay Cross River Bemus Point Runs - Maple Grove Lady Raiders XC - North Rockland Glen Head Running Club - North Shore Vikings XC - Pittsford Mendon Sachem Spiked Shoe Club - Sachem East Kinetic - Saratoga Legacy Track Club - Shenendehowa Wildcat Athletic Club - Shoreham Wading River Sweet Home Track Club - Sweet Home Titan Ridge Runners - Webster Thomas Syracuse Track Club - Westhill-Ludden