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 Foot Locker Speed Rating Preview 2016

 

I compiled the following lists to familiarize myself with runners competing in Foot Locker 2016 ... I wanted a general idea of what the runners have accomplished in terms of speed ratings with a look towards handicapping the race ... Knowing something about the runners and contenders make the races more interesting when watching the races.

The tables below include:
 ... Overall Rating - an approximated overall speed rating for betting purposes
 ... FL Region Rating - speed rating from the Foot Locker regional
 ... State Meet Rating - speed rating from the State Meet
 ... Other Ratings - other selected speed ratings from the season (Note - 1 speed rating point = 3 seconds)

Some brief comments about selected runners are given following the tables ... (Link to Speed Rating History at Foot Locker Finals)

 

 BOYS Foot Locker Preview Speed Ratings
Name Gr School St Region Overall Rating Foot Locker Region Rating FL Region Place State Meet Rating Selected Other Seasonal Ratings
Finn Gessner 12 Madison La Follette WI Midwest 197 192 9 193 199 - NXN Heartland Region
186 - Verona Invitational WI
Sam Worley 12 New Braunfels Canyon TX South 197 193 1 194 197 - NXN Nationals ***
193 - NXN South Region
191 - McNeil Invitational TX
Seth Hirsch 12 Millard West NE Midwest 197 193 5 196 196 - NXN Nationals ***
199 - NXN Heartland Region
198 - Roy Griak Invitational MN
Noah Affolder 12 Carlisle PA Northeast 196 196 1 194 ~191- PIAA District 3 Champ
193 - Carlisle Invitational
183 - PTXC 8 - New Balance
Luis Grijalva 12 Armijo High CA West 195 191 4 196 193 - CIF Sac-Joaquin Section Final CA
195 - Asics Clovis Invitational CA
193 - Woodbridge CC Classic CA
Talon Hull 12 Weber UT West 195 196 1 194 189 - Bob Firman Invitational ID
Alexander Maier 10 Flower Mound TX South 195 191 3 194 196 - NXN Nationals ***
192 - NXN South Region
191 - McNeil Invitational TX
186 - Southlake Carroll Invite TX
184 - Marcus I Invitational TX
Dylan Jacobs 11 Sandburg IL Midwest 194 196 1 191 189 - NXN Nationals ***
194 - NXN Midwest Region
191 - 3A Chicago (Marist) Section
181 - Peoria Invitational IL
187 - Richard Spring Invite IL
Jack Aho 12 Grayslake Central IL Midwest 194 196 2 190 189 - NXN Nationals ***
194 - NXN Midwest Region
185 - Palatine Invitational IL
182 - First to the Finish IL
Reed Brown 12 Southlake Carroll TX South 193 190 6 189 194 - NXN Nationals ***
192 - NXN South Region
191 - Texas UIL 6A Regional
191 - Chile Pepper Invitational AR
188 - Woodbridge Classic CA
184 - Marcus I Invitational TX
Patrick O'Brien 12 Oyster River NH Northeast 193 193 3 192 190 - New England Championship
190 - Manchester Invitational
Elliot Gindi 12 Ocean Township NJ Northeast 193 192 4 194 196 - New Jersey Groups Champ
190 - Shore Conference Champ
188 - New Balance Shore Coaches
184 - Bowdoin Park XC Classic
Tibebu Proctor 11 The Northwest School WA West 193 194 2 189 190 - Nike OR-WA Border Clash
183 - Nike Hole in the Wall Inv WA
191 - Nike Portland Invite OR
187 - Sundodger Invitational WA
Callum Bolger 12 San Luis Obispo CA West 192 190 6 194 190 - CA CIF Southern Section Finals
174 - Mt SAC Invitational CA
192 - Asics Clovis Invitational CA
189 - Stanford Invitational CA
Matt Grossman 12 Millburn NJ Northeast 192 190 7 191 196 - New Jersey Groups Champ
190 - New Balance Shore Coaches
Gabe Fendel 11 Hamilton Southeastern IN Midwest 192 194 3 188 186 - NXN Nationals ***
191 - NXN Midwest Region
189 - IHSAA Semi-State Champ IL
176 - IHSAA Sectional IL
Noah Jacobs 12 Corunna MI Midwest 192 193 4 190 185 - Portage Invitational MI
191 - MSU Spartan Invite MI
Connor Lane 12 Bishop Gibbons NC South 192 192 2 193 189 - Great American Festival NC
191 - adidas XC Challenge NC
184 - Knights Crossing Invite VA
Waleed Suliman 12 Douglas Freeman VA South 191 190 5 190 193 - MileStat.com Invitational VA
Sam Affolder 10 Carlisle PA Northeast 191 193 2 188 ~181- PIAA District 3 Champ
183 - Carlisle Invitational
180 - PTXC 8 - New Balance
Matt Aho 12 Grayslake Central IL Midwest 191 192 6 185 189 - NXN Midwest Region
180 - Palatine Invitational IL
178 - First to the Finish IL
Matthew Pereira 12 Lake Zurich IL Midwest 191 192 7 186 190 - NXN Midwest Region
177 - Palatine Invitational IL
171 - Richard Spring Invite IL
Mitchell Day 12 Alpena MI Midwest 191 192 8 185 189 - NXN Midwest Region
186 - MSU Spartan Invite MI
Brian Griffith 12 Grayslake Central IL Midwest 191 192 10 189 190 - NXN Midwest Region
186 - Palatine Invitational IL
188 - Richard Spring Invite IL
Travis Feeny 12 Ogden UT West 191 190 7 184 193 - NXN Southwest Region
~180- Utah Region 5 Champ
187 - Bob Firman Invitational ID
182 - Murray Invitational Utah
Dalton Hengst 11 McDonogh School MD Northeast 190 190 5 ~187 185 - Third Battle Invite VA
182 - Lehigh Univ Paul Short Run
177 - Carlisle Invitational
Daniel Viegra 12 Pflugerville Hendericks TX South 190 190 4 --- 192 - NXN South Region
Jacob McLeod 11 Trinity Christian GA South 190 190 8 --- 186 - Georgia Meet of Champions
~187- Alexander/Asics Invitational GA
190 - Nike/Fleet Ft Coach Wood Inv GA
Matthew Watkins 12 Henry M Jackson WA West 190 190 5 190 185 - Nike OR-WA Border Clash
186 - Richland Invitational WA
187 - Nike Portland Invite OR
Charles Hicks 10 Bolles FL South 190 190 9 191 184 - Katie Caples Invitational FL
Amir Ado 12 Ferris WA West 190 191 3 186 178 - Nike OR-WA Border Clash
185 - Richland Invitational WA
186 - Mountain West Classic MT
176 - Tracy Walters Invitational WA
Will Merritt 12 Smithburg MD Northeast 189 190 6 186 174 - Oatlands Invitational VA
Nathan Henderson 12 JP McCaskey PA Northeast 189 189 9 189 ~186- PIAA District 3 Champ
189 - Carlisle Invitational
Graydon Morris 9 Aledo TX South 189 190 7 183 185 - McNeil Invitational TX
178 - Southlake Carroll Invite TX
178 - Marcus I Invitational TX
Matthew Young 12 Jenks OK South 189 189 10 186 190 - NXN South Region
182 - Chile Pepper Invitational AR
178 - Marcus I Invitational TX
Meika Beaudoin-Rousseau 11 Bellarmine CA West 189 189 9 190 182 - Mt SAC Invitational CA
183 - Stanford Invitational CA
181 - De La Salle/Carondelet Nike CA
Zach Skolnekovich 12 Quaker Valley PA Northeast 188 189 8 181 ~183- PIAA District 7 Champ
Drew Thompson 11 Fairfield Prep CT Northeast 188 189 10 185 185 - CIAC Divisional Champ
~183- Wickham Park Invite CT
186 - Woods Trial Run VT
Joshua Schumacher 11 Jesuit OR West 188 189 8 186 187 - Nike OR-WA Border Clash
Jiraa Riding 12 Orem UT West 187 187 10 183 180 - Utah Region 7 Championship
185 - Bob Firman Invitational ID
172 - Murray Invitational Utah
173 - Utah County Invitational UT
 

General Comment ... I suspect the speed ratings for the top finishers at Foot Locker Nationals may be higher than those shown in table above (that's typically the case) ... To finish in top places at Foot Locker Nationals typically requires exceptional performances, usually season-best performances ... Foot Locker is unique because it has a small field of select runners coming to the race expecting to run fast (knowing they have to run fast to place well) ... Top competition on a fast course under good weather conditions yields top performances (season-best performances).

Nine of eleven underclassmen from last year's Foot Locker return this year ... The returning runners include (with their finishes last year): Seth Hirsch (9th), Finn Gessner (11th), Noah Affolder (15th), Reed Brown (16th), Matthew Perriera (24th), Tibebu Proctor (28th), Waleed Suliman (29th), Matt Grossman (35th) and Talon Hull (37th) ... [Link to 2015 results]

Seven runners competed at NXN Nationals 2016 ... Sam Worley (2nd), Seth Hirsch (4th), Alex Maier (5th), Reed Brown (6th), Jack Aho (17th), Dylan Jacobs (19th) and Gabe Fendel (28th) ... So 4 of the top 6 finishers at NXN are at Foot Locker.

Based on the speed ratings, as many as 10 guys have a legitimate shot at winning this race depending on who's feeling good ... and that makes the race competitive and interesting.

Selected Individual Runners

Finn Gessner ... Qualified for NXN Nationals by winning the NXN Heartland Regional with a 199 speed rating ... Decided to skip NXN and concentrate on a top performance at Foot Locker ... an extra week of rest over the guys who did run NXN may be an advantage.

Sam Worley ... Has run exceptionally well during the entire 2016 XC season ... Won both the Foot Locker South and NXN South Regionals ... Has good closing speed ... Finished 2nd at NXN Nationals.

Seth Hirsch ... The top returning runner from Foot Locker 2015 ... Finished 4th at NXN Nationals ... Along with Finn Gessner, Seth Hirsch has a best individual speed rating of 199 which is tops in the field.

Noah Affolder ... The Foot Locker Northeast winner ... Finished 15th at Foot Locker 2015 ... A real threat to win this race.

Luis Grijalva ... The California State champion ... Possibly ran Foot Locker West only fast enough to qualify ... A real threat to win this race.

Talon Hull ... The Foot Locker West winner ... Finished 37th at Foot Locker 2015

Alexander Maier ... An exceptionally talented sophomore who has been competitive with top runners all season ... Finished 5th at NXN Nationals

Dylan Jacobs ... The Foot Locker Midwest winner ... Finished 19th at NXN Nationals

Reed Brown ... Finished 6th at NXN Nationals ... Finished 16th at Foot Locker 2015

 

 

 GIRLS Foot Locker Preview Speed Ratings
Name Gr School St Region Overall Rating Foot Locker Region Rating FL Region Place State Meet Rating Other Seasonal Ratings
Claudia Lane 10 Malibu CA West 158 158 1 158 149 - CA CIF Southern Section Finals
154 - Mt SAC Indiv Sweeps Invite CA
145 - Woodbridge CC Classic CA
142 - Seaside Invitational CA
Nevada Mareno 12 Leesville Road NC South 148++ 147 1 148 142 - CAP 8 Championships NC
140 - Friday Night Lights NC
Alyssa Aldridge 11 Mainland NJ Northeast 153 153 1 153 146 - New Jersey Groups Champ
129 - Manhattan Inv Champ NY
Anne Forsyth 11 Ann Arbor Pioneer MI Midwest 150 150 1 147 148 - NXN Nationals ***
150 - NXN Midwest Region
146 - Portage Invitational Michigan
127 - MSU Spartan Invite MI
India Johnson 12 Hilliard Davidson OH Midwest 150 144 2 145 150 - NXN Nationals ***
151 - NXN Midwest Region
143 - Saturday Night Lights Ohio
144 - Trinity/Valkyrie Invite KY
134 - Asics Hot Summer Bash Ohio
Jacqueline Gaughan 11 Exeter NH Northeast 148 148 2 147 147 - New England Championship
143 - Brown Northeast Invite RI
140 - Woods Trail Run Vermont
135 - Manchester Invitational NH
Heather Holt 11 George C. Marshall VA South 148 146 2 149 142 - Third Battle Invitational VA
142 - Glory Days Grill Invite VA
144 - Great American CC Festival NC
142 - Oatlands Invitational VA
143 - Monroe Parker Invitational VA
144 - Great Meadows Invitational VA
Maria Coffin 11 Annapolis Senior MD Northeast 147 146 3 149 144 - Frank Keyser Invitational MD
144 - Manhattan Inv Champ NY
Niamh Schumacher 12 King's Academy TN South 146 146 3 145 142 - Jesse Owens Classic Alabama
Grace Connolly 10 Natick MA Northeast 145 145 4 142 147 - MIAA Eastern State Champion MA
138 - Bay State Invitational MA
136 - Ocean State Invitational RI
Abigail Green 11 Walter Johnson MD Northeast 145 143 9 147 144 - Manhattan Inv Champ NY
133 - Oatlands Invitational VA
Olivia Theis 11 Lansing Catholic MI Midwest 144 143 5 145 146 - Portage Invitational Michigan
142 - MSU Spartan Invite MI
Julia Heymach 11 Houston Lamar TX South 144 139 8 145 142 - McNeil Invitational Texas
141 - Woodbridge CC Classic CA
Nicole Fegans 12 Landmark Christian GA South 144 145 4 137 ~140- Alexander/Asics Invitational GA
137 - Georgia Meet of Champions
Jordan Oakes 12 Holy Names Academy WA West 144 143 5 143 143 - Nike OR-WA Border Clash
145 - Nike Hole in the Wall Inv WA
142 - Nike Portland XC Invite OR
Kearan Nelson 12 Central Valley Sr WA West 144 146 2 137 137 - Nike OR-WA Border Clash
129 - Mountain West Classic MT
125 - Sundodger Invitational WA
Alexandra Beitia 12 Granite Bay CA West 143 144 3 143 129 - Sac-Joaquin Section Finals CA
140 - Asics Clovis Invitational CA
141 - Stanford Invitational CA
Kayla Young 12 Denver North CO Midwest 143 144 3 136 131 - NXN Southwest Region
129 - St. Vrain Invitational CO
129 - Centaurus Invitational CO
Lauren Peterson 10 Farmington MN Midwest 143 143 4 135 140 - NXN Nationals ***
144 - NXN Heartland Region
125 - Roy Griak Invitational MN
123 - Faribault Invitational MN
Page Lester 11 National Cathedral DC Northeast 143 144 5 ~140 ~137- DCSAA CC Championships
131 - Glory Days Invite VA
Hayley Jackson 12 Patuxent MD Northeast 143 144 6 138  -----
Rebecca Story 11 Christian Academy TN South 143 141 6 141 144 - Jesse Owens Classic Alabama
Amanda Beach 12 Melbourne Central FL South 142 144 5 132 134 - FSU Invite (Pre-State) FL
139 - Flrunners.com Invitational FL
Bailey Hertenstein 11 Riverview FL South 142 140 7 142 144 - Flrunners.com Invitational FL
Taryn Parks 9 Greencastle-Antrim PA Northeast 142 144 7 126 ~133- PIAA District 3 Champ
129 - Carlisle Invitational PA
Alison Willingmyre 12 Wilson PA Northeast 142 144 8 137 ~128- PIAA District 3 Champ
131 - Carlisle Invitational PA
Mattie Shirley-Fairbairn
 
10 Bismarck ND Midwest 142 140 7 144 138 - NXN Heartland Region
128 - Roy Griak Invitational MN
Lindsay Payne 11 Glenbard West IL Midwest 142 140 8 143 132 - NXN Midwest Region
136 - Naperville Twilight Inv IL
137 - Richard Spring Invite IL
138 - Hornet/Red Devil Invite IL
Kate Hunter 12 Provo UT West 142 144 4 132 138 - NXN Southwest Region
132 - UHSTCA Pre-Foot Locker Utah
133 - Utah Region 7 Championship
138 - Bob Firman Invitational Idaho
132 - BYU Autumn Classic Utah
Marea Zlatunich 11 Aptos CA West 141 142 6 139 120 - Stanford Invitational CA
Kiera Marshall 12 St Joseph Notre Dame CA West 141 141 7 140 127 - Mt SAC Invitational CA
136 - Stanford Invitational CA
134 - Woodbridge CC Classic CA
Julien Webster 12 Catoctin MD Northeast 141 143 10 118 132 - Frank Keyser Invitational MD
130 - Oatlands Invitational VA
Sara Platek 12 Ragsdale NC South 140 139 9 142 135 - Hare & Hounds Inv at McAlpine
Sara Musselman 10 American Fork UT West 140 141 8 131 135 - NXN Southwest Region
122 - UHSTCA Pre-Foot Locker Utah
133 - Utah Region 4 Championships
140 - Bob Firman Invitational Idaho
127 - Murray Invitational Utah
126 - Pre-Region IV Race Utah
126 - Highland Invitational UT
Christina Geisler 12 Carmel IN Midwest 140 141 6 134 135 - NXN Nationals ***
131 - NXN Midwest Region
130 - IHSAA Semi-State 2 IN
130 - Culver Academies Invite IN
134 - Trinity/Valkyrie Invite KY
131 - TH Savings Bank Invite IN
Kyla Christopher-Moody 10 West Bloomfield MI Midwest 140 140 10 139  -----
Ava Strenge 12 Battle Creek St Philip MI Midwest 139 140 9 130 123 - Portage Invitational Michigan
124 - Portage Early Bird Michigan
Jesselyn Bries 11 Sandra Day O Connor AZ West 138 139 9 137 135 - NXN Southwest Region
130 - Desert Twilight Festival AZ
Katie Thronson 11 Lewis And Clark WA West 138 138 10 140

126 - Nike OR-WA Border Clash
130 - NXN Northwest Region
130 - Richland Invitational WA

Anna Marian Block 11 Athens Academy GA South 137 136 10 131 ~137- Alexander/Asics Invitational GA
137 - Coach Benson Double Dip GA
 

General Comment ... A good field of competitors ... Claudia Lane is the favorite based on excellent seasonal performances ... Nevada Mareno finished 3rd at Foot Locker last year and is expected to be a serious contender for the win.

Seven underclassmen return this year from last year's Foot Locker ... The returning  runners are Nevada Mareno (3rd last year), Jordan Oakes (20th last year), Alyssa Aldrich (23rd last year), Maria Coffin (27th last year), Kate Hunter (31st last year), Kayla Young (33rd last year) and Julia Heymach (36th last year)  ... [Link to 2015 results]

Four runners competed at NXN Nationals 2016 ... India Johnson (9th), Anne Forsyth (14th), Lauren Peterson (30th) and Christina Geisler (40th).

Selected Individual Runners

Claudia Lane ... The Foot Locker West winner and top runner in California ... Has been improving throughout the season ... Popped 158 speed ratings at both Foot Locker West and the California State Meet (3rd fastest time ever at Woodward Park behind only Sarah Baxter and Julia Stamps).

Claudia Lane did race NXN Champion Brie Oakley at the Woodbridge Classic (Sept 17th) with Oakley winning by 23 seconds (153 and 145 speed ratings respectively) ... Both girls have shown improvement since that race nearly two-and-a-half months ago ... It would obviously be interesting to see them race now, but that's not going to happen.

Nevada Mareno ... The top returning runner from last year's Foot Locker where Nevada Mareno finished 3rd with a 160 speed rating ... Entering Foot Locker last year, she had a best speed rating of 157 when she broke the course record at WakeMed (the course used for NXN Southeast and the Great American Festival) ... Nevada Mareno ran a somewhat limited XC schedule this year and has not really been tested competitively ... she won Foot Locker South handily ... I'm guessing she can run significantly faster than this year's speed ratings ... I will not be surprised if she wins.

Alyssa Aldridge ... The Foot Locker Northeast winner ... Ran 153 speed ratings at both Foot Locker Northeast and the New Jersey Meet of Champions ... Finished 23rd at last year's Foot Locker.

Anne Forsyth ... The Foot Locker Midwest winner ... Finished 14th at NXN Nationals after taking 3rd at NXN Midwest.

India Johnson ... Finished 2nd at both Foot Locker Midwest and NXN Midwest ... Finished 9th at NXN Nationals.