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  Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2016

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 26, 2016

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 23, 2016 ....  ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 26, 2016

.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 26, 2016

NOTE ...  the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries

NXN-NY Info at:  http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny

 

[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]

 

 Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Corning the favorite
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Corning                 132     (04-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius      114
 2   Fayetteville-Manlius    155     (03-A )     Liverpool                 145
 3   Saratoga                156     (02-A )     Corning                   174
 4   Liverpool               167     (03-A )     Watkins Glen              179
 5   Ithaca                  168     (04-A )     Saratoga Springs          198
 6   Burnt Hills             195     (02-B )     Warwick Valley            223
 7   Watkins Glen            221     (04-C )     Burnt Hills               223
 8   Warwick Valley          222     (09-A )     Smithtown                 229
 9   Smithtown               233     (11-A )     Mount Academy             250
 10  Xavier                  249     (CHSAA)     Ithaca                    252
 11  Baldwinsville           309     (03-A )     Xavier                    257
 12  Niskayuna               331     (02-A )     Brighton                  301
 13  Mount Academy           341     (09-C )     Niskayuna                 329
 14  Brighton                351     (05-B )     Guilderland               330
 15  Guilderland             393     (02-A )     Baldwinsville             353
 16  East Aurora             409     (06-B )     Maine-Endwell             408
 17  Churchville             432     (05-A )     East Aurora               417
 18  Maine-Endwell           483     (04-B )     Washingtonville           485
 19  Washingtonville         499     (09-A )     Manhasset                 490
 20  FDR                     501     (09-A )     Commack                   518
 21  Hamburg                 511     (06-A )     Hamburg                   544
 22  Manhasset               555     (08-B )     Irondequoit               555
 23  Commack                 595     (11-A )     Shaker                    643
 24  Irondequoit             603     (05-A )     FDR                       645
 25  Owego                   608     (04-B )     Owego                     666
 26  Shaker                  705     (02-A )     Williamsville South       760
 27  Williamsville S         716     (06-B )     Franklin Academy          788
 28  Franklin Academy        770     (10-B )

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... The top four teams listed above have one thing in common ... They all skipped the Federation Meet.

Corning won the NY State Meet, and that makes Corning the favorite entering the New York regional ... Saratoga had an "off-race" at States and Fayetteville-Manlius could not race at States because Liverpool won the Section 3 qualifier for States (the three FM guys at States ran well) ... Ithaca could not race at States because Corning won the Section 4 qualifier ... Ithaca's off-performance at Feds was due to food poisoning to a top runner (did not run) and another guy running despite being sick.

Actually, the 5 top teams listed above are not separated by that much ... all show good strength at the top two or three positions (Liverpool is very strong at the top three positions ... speed ratings of 192, 190 and 186 at States) ... The finishing positions of this race could well be determined by the performance levels of the #4 and #5 scorers.

I placed Fayetteville-Manlius at the 2nd-spot above because FM seems to get the job done at this meet ... But to me, it looks wide-open overall.

Individual Race ... Only one of the top 27 rated male runners in NY has opted to run Footlocker ... So this is a real NY championship for individuals with a reward for the top five finishers not on a team qualifying for NXN ... The overall speed rating below indicate a wide-open race for the top spot ... Looks very competitive.

 
The Top-Ranked NY Runners:
1   Nathan Lawler         11   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       190    NXN Individual
2   Noah Carey            12   02-A    Guilderland            190       NXN Team
3   Christopher Tibbetts  12   11-A    Sachem North           190    NXN Individual
4   Stephen Schulz        12   03-A    Liverpool              190       NXN Team
5   Ty Brownlow           12   03-A    Liverpool              189       NXN Team
6   Kevin Moshier         12   04-A    Corning                188       NXN Team
7   Silas Derfel          11   04-A    Ithaca                 186       NXN Team
8   Patrick Perry         12   03-A    FM                     186       NXN Team
9   Davone Hernandez      12   03-A    Rome                   186    (at Footlocker)
10  Ryan Gallagher        12   01-C    Briarcliff             185    NXN Individual
11  Samuel Morton         12   01-A    Mamaroneck             185    NXN Individual
12  Jonathan Lauer        12   11-A    Sachem North           184    NXN Individual
13  Josh Hickmott         12   03-A    Liverpool              184       NXN Team
14  Paul Dellinger        12   05-B    Brighton               183       NXN Team
15  Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 9    09-A    Warwick                183       NXN Team
16  Michael Grabowski     12   11-A    Smithtown              183       NXN Team
17  Declan Hines          12   02-A    Saratoga               183       NXN Team
18  Kyle Fulk             12   10-D    Norwood-Norfolk        183    NXN Individual
19  Dominic Morganti      12   03-C    CBA                    182         -----
20  Aidan Ryan            12   AIS     Trinity School         181    NXN Individual
21  Quinn Nicholson       11   04-A    Corning                180       NXN Team
22  Thomas Gardiner       11   09-A    Warwick                180       NXN Team
23  Jake Avery            12   04-A    Ithaca                 180       NXN Team
24  David Leff            12   03-A    West Genesee           180    NXN Individual
25  Shea Weilbaker        10   02-A    Saratoga               180       NXN Team
26  Patrick Hazlitt       12   04-C    Watkins Glen           180       NXN Team
27  Noah Tindale          10   02-A    Guilderland            180       NXN Team

 

 Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius     48     (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius       40
 2   North Rockland          112     (01-A )     Shenendehowa              110
 3   Saratoga                136     (02-A )     Shoreham Wading River     127
 4   Shenendehowa            137     (02-A )     North Rockland            148
 5   Shoreham Wading River   157     (11-B )     Saratoga Springs          151
 6   Corning                 162     (04-A )     Niskayuna                 205
 7   Niskayuna               174     (02-A )     Corning                   209
 8   Webster Thomas          229     (05-A )     East Aurora               211
 9   Guilderland             241     (02-A )     Webster Thomas            241
 10  Warwick Valley          253     (09-A )     Liverpool                 249
 11  East Aurora             261     (06-B )     Sachem East               259
 12  Sachem East             305     (11-A )     Elmira                    262
 13  Ithaca                  326     (04-A )     Warwick Valley            273
 14  Elmira                  327     (04-A )     Guilderland               280
 15  Baldwinsville           353     (03-A )     Ithaca                    401
 16  Manhasset               410     (08-B )     Sweet Home                406
 17  Sweet Home              425     (06-B )
 18  Convent Sacred Heart    460     (AIS  )
		
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again ... FM skipped Federations to prepare for this race (again).

Annual Repeat - Fayetteville-Manlius has been impressive all season, and there is no reason to suspect that will change ... FM beat North Rockland and Saratoga by 30 and 58 points, respectively, at States with only nine teams in the race.

North Rockland won the Federation Meet with a good performance, and is the favorite to grab the second NXN auto-qualifying spot.

Saratoga did not run well at Feds ... they had a better team performance at States, and that type of performance could put them in the 3rd-place finishing position which would be important in getting an At-Large bid to NXN.

Shenendehowa, Shoreham Wading River, Corning and Niskayuna are all serious contenders to finish 3rd or 4th with a good team performance ... and should North Rockland falter somewhat, five or six teams could be in the hunt for the second NXN auto-qualifying spot.

Individual Race ... The top 13 overall speed-rated girls in NY are competing at NXN ... Only one girl in the list below is running at Footlocker ... 7th-grader Elizabeth Lucason (6th at Federations) has opted to run at Junior Olympics instead of NXN ... Kelsey Chmiel is the favorite entering this New York regional, but Jessica Lawson, Katherine Lee and Katelyn Tuohy are close behind.

The five individual qualifiers to NXN may not be known until the At-Large selection committee selects the 4 national At-Large teams ... I suspect NY will be getting at least one At-Large bid, and maybe two if the #4 finishing team runs well.

 
The Top-Ranked NY Runners:
1   Kelsey Chmiel         10   02-A    Saratoga               154       NXN Team
2   Jessica Lawson        12   04-A    Corning                151       NXN Team
3   Katelyn Tuohy         9    01-A    North Rockland         149       NXN Team
4   Katherine Lee         11   11-B    Shoreham Wading R      148       NXN Team
5   Claire Walters        9    03-A    FM                     146       NXN Team
6   Amanda Vestri         12   05-A    Webster Thomas         142       NXN Team
7   Sophie Ryan           11   03-A    FM                     141       NXN Team
8   Phoebe White          9    03-A    FM                     140       NXN Team
9   Sammy Watson          12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta         140    NXN Individual
10  Brooke Rauber         8    03-D    Tully                  138    NXN Individual
11  Haleigh Morales       9    01-A    North Rockland         138       NXN Team
12  Palmer Madsen         11   03-A    FM                     137       NXN Team
13  Hannah Reale          11   02-A    Shenendehowa           135       NXN Team
14  Elizabeth Lucason     7    03-B    Camden                 135   (Junior Olympics)
15  Julia Zachgo          12   02-A    Shenendehowa           134       NXN Team
16  Caroline Timm         11   01-B    Lourdes                134
17  Olivia Elston         12   09-B    Goshen                 133    (at Footlocker)
18  Anna Kostarellis      12   05-A    Churchville-Chili      133    NXN Individual
19  Jenna Schulz          9    03-A    Liverpool              133       NXN Team
20  Jennie Prial          12   09-A    Warwick                132       NXN Team
21  Rebecca Walters       11   03-A    FM                     132       NXN Team
22  Alex Harris           12   01-A    North Rockland         132       NXN Team