Pre-Season XC 2023

BOYS Teams - New York State 2023

Bill Meylan (July 21, 2023)

[ Combined Teams ] .. [ Class A ] .. [ Class B ] .. [ Class C ] .. [ Class D ] .. [ CHSAA - AIS - PSAL ]

NY Boys - Pre-Season Rankings 2023

What good are Pre-Season Rankings?
... Useful in gathering background information for the upcoming season
... Topic of conversion during the summer
... Not used for any rankings once the season starts
Pre-Season Team Ranking Problems:
... Based largely on last year's XC results
... Some runners improve significantly or lose interest
... Some runners quit or transfer
... One runner can have a big impact on team score (plus or minus)
... Unknowns - Requires some subjective "guessing" by me.
... If data for 5 runners on a team was not available or guess-able, team likely excluded

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... I posted scores by individual class because some people are interested.

New York BOYS Teams - Combined Classes 2023


                  Pre-Season Projection - New York Boys Team Contenders - 2023

         ---------------------------------------
              Scores Using Top 31 Teams
         ---------------------------------------
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Fairport                185     (05-A )
    2    St. Anthony's           200     (CHSAA)
    3    Saratoga Springs        205     (02-A )
    4    Arlington               225     (01-A )
    5    Auburn                  225     (03-A )
    6    Ithaca                  260     (04-A )
    7    Rush-Henrietta          300     (05-A )
    8    Corning                 300     (04-A )
    9    Monroe-Woodbury         300     (09-A )
    10   Xavier                  330     (CHSAA)
    11   Brooklyn Tech           335     (PSAL )
    12   Hunter College Campus   380     (PSAL )
    13   Burnt Hills             385     (02-B )
    14   Clarence                385     (06-A )
    15   North Rockland          400     (01-A )
    16   Churchville             445     (05-A )
    17   Guilderland             445     (02-A )
    18   Port Washington         455     (08-A )
    19   Eastport-South Manor    470     (11-A )
    20   Niskayuna               480     (02-A )
    21   Columbia                495     (02-A )
    22   Regis                   500     (CHSAA)
    23   Ward Melville           520     (11-A )
    24   Hackley                 525     (AIS  )
    25   Orchard Park            530     (06-A )
    26   Shenendehowa            530     (02-A )
    27   John Jay EF             545     (01-A )
    28   Pearl River             550     (01-B )
    29   Somers                  555     (01-B )
    30   Nanuet                  575     (01-B )
    31   Great Neck South        590     (08-A )

Where did the scores come from?
... 2022 Seasonal Speed Ratings
... Manual manipulation based on Guessing
Uncertainty Factors
... Ability of a team to "reload" after significant loses (graduation, transfer, etc)
... Impact of new runners ... my term for this is "New Blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc)
... Will returning runners improve??
... Team Depth ... Impact of Injury or Illness
... Impact of runners who decide to quit

Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 31 teams to show some depth.

In General ... Similar to other pre-seasons, I see uncertainty in the team scores posted above ... Pre-season projections are often made with limited knowledge (or no knowledge) of incoming impact runners such as transfers (from other sports or other schools) or significantly improved runners from the previous year ... It requires guessing.

---------------------

Fairport enters the 2023 season as a slight favorite based on speed ratings ... Fairport returns 8 runners with a highest individual speed rating of 150 or higher and a range of 187 to 157 for the top 5 ..... St. Anthony's gets the #2 spot above (entering the season) based on speed ratings, and last year, St. Anthony's finished 2nd at NY Federations & NXR New York (qualifying for NXN Nationals).

Saratoga Springs, Auburn and Arlington are not far behind ... and are serious contenders for overall top spots in New York ..... Inclusion of top new runners or improved existing runners make other teams challengers as well ..... New York could have another top 10 finisher at NXN Nationals this season (well, hopefully ... unfortunately, no NY Boys team is in my National Pre-Season top 25).

---------------------

One or two new impact runners could make a big difference for a bunch of teams ... Should be interesting to watch the development throughout the XC season.

Additional comments and information are given below by Class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXR-New York regional qualifier ... Profiles for the Top Individual NY Boys are available.

Class A - Boys ... Pre-Season 2023

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    Fairport                135     (05-A )
    2    Saratoga Springs        150     (02-A )
    3    Auburn                  160     (03-A )
    4    Arlington               165     (01-A )
    5    Ithaca                  185     (04-A )
    6    Rush-Henrietta          225     (05-A )
    7    Corning                 230     (04-A )
    8    Monroe-Woodbury         230     (09-A )
    9    Clarence                285     (06-A )
    10   North Rockland          295     (01-A )
    11   Guilderland             330     (02-A )
    12   Churchville             330     (05-A )
    13   Port Washington         340     (08-A )
    14   Eastport-South Manor    350     (11-A )
    15   Niskayuna               360     (02-A )
    16   Columbia                375     (02-A )
    17   Ward Melville           395     (11-A )
    18   Orchard Park            400     (06-A )
    19   Shenendehowa            400     (02-A )
    20   John Jay EF             415     (01-A )
    21   Great Neck South        450     (08-A )
    22   Fayetteville-Manlius    460     (03-A )
    23   Baldwinsville           460     (03-A )
    24   Liverpool               460     (03-A )
    25   Northport               460     (11-A )

Like all classes, the Class A preseason rankings are based primarily on available speed ratings from 2022.

The top 4 teams above are the top teams in Class A and in NY State overall (including St. Anthony's from the CHSAA) ... However, Fairport gets a slight advantage based on speed ratings.

Fairport finished 4th at the Class A race last year and 6th at NXR New York ... they return 4 of their top 6 including their top two ... best individual speed ratings of the top 5 returners ranges from 187 to 157 ... During Outdoor Track, Fairport had 5 runners with 3200m times of (9:12.48, 9:28.23, 9:33.61, 9:48.31 and 9:57.28).

Saratoga Springs finished 5th at the Class A race last year and 5th at NXR New York ... they return 4 of their top 7 ... best individual speed ratings of the top 5 returners ranges from 170 to 159 ... During Outdoor Track, Saratoga had 6 runners with 3200m times of (9:39.08, 9:40.10, 9:43.76, 9:55.23, 9:56.40 and 9:56.80).

Auburn finished 7th at the Class A race last year and 7th at NXR New York ... they return their entire team ... best individual speed ratings of the top 5 returners ranges from 173 to 156.

Arlington finished 6th at the Class A race last year and 12th at NXR New York ... they return 6 of their top 7 including the top 3 ... best individual speed ratings of the top 5 returners ranges from 189 to 156.

Corning won both Class A and NXR New York last year, and then finished 10th at NXN Nationals ... Corning lost 5 seniors to graduation, but I have given them some credit for potential to reload ... Corning had 4 runners with 3200m times of (9:37.06, 9:43.29, 9:51.20, 9:55.69) ..... Ithaca could be very decent, and make it difficult for Corning to qualify for States in Section 4.

Any team with one or more "new" good runners or noticeably improved runners can improve their ranking position by quite a bit (and perhaps, a lot).

Some Class A Returning Runners by Team  

                            Highest   Overall
                           XC-Rating  Rating    XC Ratings by Race 2022
                           ---------  -------   -----------------------------------
Fairport
  Jake Passalugo        12    187       185     182 182 187 184 178 184 185 175
  Owen Willard          12    177       174     169 174 177 173 170 172 168 152
  Connor Roeser         12    162       157     157 157 155 155 155 162 154 138
  Jackson Warnett       12    161       160     159 160 161 160 155 153 136
  Henry Hill            10    157       154     153 157 148 144 129
  Colin Lesher          12    151       147     138 151 138 149
  Tyler Fischer         12    150       148     138 150 150 134 127
  Austin Bubel          10    150       142     137 150 138 115 100
  Jackson Hickey        10    142       141     139 142 138 132
  Jake Dixon            12    141       141     141 140 137 139 117
  Andrew Green          10    141       139     138 141 134 128 101

Saratoga Springs
  Darren Pasek          11    170       162     154 156 163 170 161 164 166 159 157
  Jacob Bernd           12    169       162     157 155 168 160 169 158 166 157 157 147
  Thomas Isenovski      10    162       156     148 158 152 162 157 153 155 154 142
  Owen Blaisdell        11    160       138     125 129 126 144 160 154 141
  Luke Dacey            12    159       154     150 153 150 157 159 158 152 159 153 145
  Hudson Shaw           12    150       145     143 140 149 149 150 137 144 138 132
  Colin Reinhart        12    147       144     137 147 130
  Brent Pasek           9     147       147     145 146 147
  Charles Dybala        12    144       142     141 144 132 138

Auburn
  Chris Howard          12    173       168     167 165 164 173 168 171 169 167 162 157
  Keegan Brady          12    165       157     142 158 157 165 157 161 146 157 159 152
  Ryan Maher            10    162       156     151 157 156 162 158 158 150 142 144 135
  Owen Gasper           10    161       159     161 155 151 145 160 157 160 147 159 143
  Jerry Czyz            12    156       153     156 153 149 155 144 143 126 131 127
  Austin Ferrin         11    155       150     149 152 149 151 155 146 143 140 135 113
  Elliot Hickman        12    145       139     141 137 137 134 130 145 105 83
  Sean Ringwood         9     134       129     122 129 134 126 105 127 104

Arlington
  Ethan Green           12    189       180     173 162 189 172 179 164 187 184 178 183
  Brian Brutting        12    165       153     129 134 161 162 165 159 159 155
  Bryce Brutting        12    160       155     160 131
  Jeyvi Ramirez-Valencia12    159       155     149 152 157 156 150 137 159 157 155 150
  Jack Handman          11    156       151     147 147 156 134 155 150 152 150 150 140
  Jack Pelusio          12    156       149     124 150 151 153 156 146 153 154 155 143
  Arseniy Nechaev       11    146       138     112 138 139 146 146 142 136 131
  Brian Pelusio         10    131       129     131 130 110 118 108

Ithaca
  Crosby Woods          12    173       172     173 168 170 167 171 170 166 152 166 169
  Everett Shaw          11    172       166     163 156 167 171 170 169 169 155 170 172
  Noah Hilker           12    162       161     160 161 162 155 162 153 160 155 149 162 153
  Riley Hubisz          11    156       149     147 145 148 156 144 149 143 150 141 137
  Titus Scott           12    151       145     139 147 146 151 143 147 141 132 136 133
  Zoltan Nadasdy        10    146       143     138 146 142 140 140 144 140 125 140 123
  Andor Nadasdy         10    143       138     129 143 136 116 133
  Ryder Bonn            11    138       125     115 111 127 138 135 117 130 115
  Rex Mangaraj          10    132       123     114 116 124 132 125 123 127 114

Rush-Henrietta
  Mikey Flannery        12    175       164     155 160 169 175 172 154 134 153 148
  Christian Westcott    12    174       171     171 174 172 173 167 157 143 150 148
  Zachary Terrano       12    154       151     144 154 143
  Samuel Lewis          11    153       142     136 139 153 142 128 105 119 114
  Bayley Herman         11    151       149     151 150 148 146 147 106 129 127
  Alex Rynkiewicz       12    126       120     112 115 121 114 126
  Charles Cole IV       11    120       116     102 119 120 102 110

Corning
  DJ Cornfield          12    172       170     172 168 168 163 172 172 166 167 147 158
  Jaxyn Mahoney         11    162       160     162 158 154 159 161 152 160 149 148 146
  Gregory Homa          11    155       149     143 152 146 155 150 142 136 131
  Aidan Kahabka         12    151       144     140 144 135 148 151 137 122 129
  Sebastian Boutwell    10    143       138     134 143 135 138 139 129 118 102
  Sam Segal             12    132       128     118 132 129 124 116 121
  Nathanial Jennings    12    127       123     110 127 123 119 102

Monroe-Woodbury
  Gavin Catherwood      11    167       165     167 166 162 162 161 163 160 159 162 155 145
  Oliver Jibb           12    166       157     154 150 146 163 159 160 166 160 148
  Shane Golio           11    161       159     159 161 160 158 159 154 148 149 147 128 122
  Devon Ryan            11    156       150     141 150 156 155 146 140 140 139 126
  Siddharth Ranganathan 10    146       145     146 131 146 146
  Vincent Costello      11    140       138     140 137 136 134 122 100
  Tylan Haag            10    128       127     125 128 118
  John Mancuso          10    126       124     121 126 122 115

Clarence
  Noah Holden           12    169       165     159 166 169 161 158 149 164
  Nico Ranalletta       11    162       157     155 162 154 146 141 133
  Phillip Russo         11    157       151     157 143 141 137 135
  Ricky Curiel          11    151       147     148 151 126 139 124 127
  Isaac Cannizzaro      10    146       137     146 126 114 119
  Charlie Brancato      11    145       142     144 145 135 130 100 126

North Rockland
  Ryan Tuohy            10    180       174     172 171 180 169 168 165 169 162
  Claudel Chery         10    169       165     154 169 163 166 161 155 133
  Austin Curry          12    153       150     152 146 153 145 128 146 133
  Devon Piccone         11    150       146     140 142 147 150 144 146 96
  Jake Hirsch           11    134       128     134 119 115 120 110 108
  Daniel Affoumani      11    133       130     122 130 133 128 122 120
  Fritzner Michel       11    133       129     124 133 126 127 122 116 111
  Jacob Niero           11    125       124     125 115 124 123

Class B - Boys ... Pre-Season 2023

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    Burnt Hills             125     (02-B )
    2    Pearl River             155     (01-B )
    3    Nanuet                  200     (01-B )
    4    Somers                  210     (01-B )
    5    McQuaid Jesuit          210     (05-B )
    6    Queensbury              225     (02-B )
    7    Scotia-Glenville        230     (02-B )
    8    Harborfields            230     (11-B )
    9    Manhasset               230     (08-B )
    10   Miller Place            245     (11-B )
    11   Pittsford Sutherland    275     (05-B )
    12   Starpoint               300     (06-B )
    13   Goshen                  310     (09-B )
    14   Garden City             310     (08-B )
    15   Honeoye Falls-Lima      310     (05-B )
    16   Hamburg                 310     (06-B )
    17   Christian Bro-Albany    330     (02-B )
    18   Pittsford Mendon        330     (05-B )
    19   Brewster                335     (01-B )
    20   East Hampton            350     (11-B )

Burnt Hills is the defending Class B Champion once again ... They return 5 runners, including 3 scorers from the State Meet team ... Burnt Hills returns 3 runners with highest speed rating ranging from 161-176 which is their advantage in Class B ... and makes them the favorite in Class B.

Pearl River finished 5th at last year's Class B race and returns 5 of their top 6 runners ... Nanuet & Somers are both Section 1 teams, and must contend with Pearl River to determine which of those teams will qualify for the State Meet.

I am expecting (hoping) a few teams in Class B will show some nice improvement.

Some Class B Returning Runners by Team  

                            Highest   Overall
                           XC-Rating  Rating    XC Ratings by Race 2022
                           ---------  -------   -----------------------------------
Burnt Hills
  Matt Windecker        12    176       174     166 176 174 164 175 171 174 174 170
  Ben Smith             12    166       159     142 156 165 153 151 166 162 146
  Cayden Robleno        12    161       155     148 154 154 158 161 158 151 130
  Thomas Kotkoskie      11    148       139     123 140 140 133 144 148 131
  Brody Dugan           12    137       129     102 132 134 133 137 128 130 133 105
  Brayden Cyr           12    135       129     93 134 128 135 135 113
  Nolan McFarland       12    132       126     120 132 114 117 104

Pearl River
  Max Prunty            12    156       147     143 134 149 132 150 148 156
  John Hannagan         12    155       151     148 149 149 155 151 151
  C.J. Ritchie          12    150       147     145 150 144 139 122
  Tyler Walsh           11    148       146     144 148 146 134 140 137
  Aiden Durcan          12    142       141     141 140 140 137 138 142 140
  Teague Watson         12    140       139     135 140 134
  Owen Burke            11    137       134     132 137 125 127 128

Nanuet
  Ryan Sung             12    157       151     143 157 146 151 141 132 139
  Derick Mendoza        12    154       149     134 148 154 153 153 144 143 145 136
  Shane Ethakkan        11    154       149     144 154 152 149 142 143 122 126
  Sebastian Figueroa    12    145       140     134 145 144 145 97 129 105 120
  Jarell Gibbs          11    129       116     46 129 120 112 107
  Daniel Paneto         12    127       115     39 123 127 116 115 125
  Peter Mammen          11    117       114     117 114 111 111 103 101 85 89

Somers
  Aiden Meza            12    167       156     132 157 150 167 162
  Christian Wissa       12    157       155     157 151 157 153 153 141 156 127
  Christian Brooks      12    152       146     149 131 137 152 142
  Michael Maguire       12    138       131     101 137 124 131 138 132
  Anthony Fusco         12    127       127     127
  Arjun Ojha            12    126       125     124 125 122 126 124 122

McQuaid Jesuit
  Logan Canfield        12    161       156     151 155 159 161 157 144 156 147 138
  Max Schnittman        11    153       149     147 153 144 145 148 148 147 139 136
  Alex Steele           12    145       134     121 130 135 145 131 135 137 130 119
  Luke Schickler        12    145       139     124 135 145 143 134 142 143 132 117
  Ambrose Weidmann      12    133       132     133 132 131 130 127 128 118 111
  Mark Attala           12    125       117     118 103 115 114 125 114

Queensbury
  Liam Davidson         11    167       163     162 166 167 160 155 155 147 132
  Julian Campopiano     12    158       154     158 148 144 135 143
  Nick Gileski          11    143       139     137 136 143 135 135
  Nick DiPlacido        12    135       133     124 135 135 124 120
  Patrick Eppedico-Ciril11    135       131     130 135 120 101 107

Scotia-Glenville
  Finn Winters-Bona     12    167       164     167 163 153 154 162 161 152 152
  Liam Cowdrey          12    154       150     151 145 151 144 140 154 147 146
  Ryan Freihofer        12    148       144     139 143 144 148 147 148 143 136
  Quinn Fasciglione     12    139       128     112 129 121 124 139 121
  John Bednarek         12    124       113     91 107 117 123 124 73
  Spencer Gilbert       10    122       120     111 122 121 115

Harborfields
  Hartley Semmes        11    160       158     156 160 138 155 156
  Ronan Leonard         12    152       150     145 149 152 151 152 139
  Aiden Hansen          11    144       142     144 142 112 133
  Rufus Rathbun         11    143       140     137 143 133 119
  Luke Ricci            11    128       126     128 124 109 122 119
  Connor Rowland        12    122       122     122

Manhasset
  Ryan Boldi            11    152       143     139 130 152 133 111
  Stije Huinink         11    151       149     148 151 146 145 139 129
  Thomas Sheerin        12    147       144     136 143 147 141 141 129
  Mark Bai              11    141       113     78 71 141
  John Hogan            11    135       131     121 135 133 127 122 121
  Luke Giangrande       12    130       129     125 127 130
  Kenneth Lee           12    128       128     128

Class C - Boys ... Pre-Season 2023

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    Alden                   180     (06-C )
    2    Oyster Bay              185     (08-C )
    3    Port Jefferson          185     (11-C )
    4    Briarcliff              185     (01-C )
    5    East Aurora             190     (06-C )
    6    Mount Academy           195     (09-C )
    7    James O'Neill           210     (09-C )
    8    Irvington               230     (01-C )
    9    Bronxville              235     (01-C )
    10   Vernon-Verona-Sherrill  240     (03-C )
    11   Southwestern            250     (06-C )
    12   Schalmont               270     (02-C )
    13   Fonda-Fultonville       280     (02-C )
    14   Oneonta                 300     (04-C )
    15   Lansing                 310     (04-C )
    16   Saranac                 320     (07-C )
    17   Saranac Lake            325     (07-C )
    18   Westhill                340     (03-C )
    19   Mexico                  355     (03-C )
    20   Marcus Whitman          365     (05-C )

I see lots of uncertainties in Class C again this season ... Perhaps as many as 10 or 11 teams could be contenders.

Based on returning speed ratings, very little separates the top 7 teams ... and Irvington & Bronxville (last year's winner, but graduated 4 runners including 3 scorers) are common contenders in Class C.

Alden finished 4th at last year's Class C race and return 4 scoring runners ... Oyster Bay finished 8th last year, but returns all runners ... Port Jefferson finished 3rd in last year's Class D race (moves up to Class C) and returns 4 scorers.

East Aurora is a perennial contender and will challenge Alden in Section 6 ... Briarcliff finished 2nd to Bronxville at last year's Section 1 Class C race and returns 5 of their top 6 runners ... Mount Academy has been assigned Class C status this season and could be a contender.

As normal, lots of uncertainty with teams and placement ... Placement above is simply a guess.

Some Class C Returning Runners by Team  

                            Highest   Overall
                           XC-Rating  Rating    XC Ratings by Race 2022
                           ---------  -------   -----------------------------------
Alden
  Gage Feider           10    157       155     150 157 155 154 155 142 143
  Evan Feider           10    156       151     133 156 153 151 152 140 142
  Caleb Feider          10    154       152     142 154 153 151 153 141 142
  Anthony Kudla         12    138       135     133 138 134 133 133 129 126
  Adam Pruetz           12    129       127     122 128 129 122 121 110

Oyster Bay
  Christopher Tardugno  12    180       172     163 171 170 165 180 179 173 168 166
  Zach Greene           10    164       149     131 139 149 164 156 153 147 141
  Omek Kumar            12    148       143     129 141 148 146 132 118
  Oliver Keczmer        12    134       130     128 129 134 130 96 91
  James Salvato         11    124       122     113 122 124 121

Port Jefferson
  Colin Veit            11    154       147     119 154 138 150 151 144 153 151 128 148
  Andrew Schretzmayer   12    148       143     133 148 138 144 138 130 127
  Carman Stanton        12    143       138     138 130 140 136 143 130 131 112
  Blake Weaver          9     140       133     128 133 140 118 116 123 125 126 reported as transferring
  Ryan Sommerstad       11    140       135     133 135 140 129 119 127 114 118
  Christopher Nam       10    117       111     94 117

Briarcliff
  Miles Chamberlain     12    156       153     152 156 153 147 148 137 135 108
  Luke Dennis           12    154       148     138 148 148 151 95 150 154 148
  Jp Kuhn               12    149       146     149 144 136 144 138 138 130
  Alex Rosenbluth       11    135       132     127 135 127 132 -67 128 133 113
  Michael Cherubini     10    131       130     129 131 125 121 110 131
  Tristan Rutman        12    120       119     120 118 96 116 118

East Aurora
  Owen Rung             12    169       159     113 157 169 168 158 163 163 146
  Shane Fraser          11    160       150     136 149 153 160 143 150 141 143
  Gus Hoak              11    144       133     122 117 144 125 132 130 125
  Damian Wiedeman       12    130       128     130 127 98 124 128
  Paul Hulme            9     126       122     102 126 125 119 123 120 85
  Luis Guilamo          10    122       119     122 116 109 106
  Elliott Ticen         10    122       118     117 122 100 101 69

Mount Academy
  Donovan Baird         11    170       164     126 170 170 170 166 166 164 164
  Alan Arnold           12    151       149     151 151 145 138 143 135 138
  Dylan Zumpe           12    141       133     129 123 134 78 137 136 132 141
  Erastus Clement       12    133       130     128 133 116 131 125 125 128
  Yeoho Jeong           12    131 ?     114     63 111 131 81 117 107
  Todd Maendel          11    126       114     111 108 103 117 126 110
  Dwayne Arnold         12    121       119     121 115 107 115

James O'Neill
  Carson Darling        11    170       162     146 156 165 168 170 165 159
  Wilson Rutherford     9     154       150     154 143 145 151 138 134
  Peter Dacunto         11    146       143     140 146 143 145 140 126 122
  Greg Luzzatto         12    140       135     136 130 140 110 72 98
  Liam Gust             10    111       107     107 111 80 107 104 87 105

Class D - Boys ... Pre-Season 2023

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    ---------
    1    Pine Plains             140     (09-D )
    2    Oakfield-Alabama        150     (05-D )
    3    Bloomfield-Naples       155     (05-D )
    4    Tri-Valley              180     (09-D )
    5    Maple Grove             190     (06-D )
    6    South Lewis             195     (03-D )
    7    Frewsburg               200     (06-D )
    8    Lake George             210     (02-D )
    9    Beaver River            215     (03-D )
    10   Harley-Allendale        250     (05-D )
    11   Barker                  270     (06-D )
    12   Maple Hill              275     (02-D )
    13   Sauquoit Valley         275     (03-D )
    14   SVE-Candor              280     (04-D )
    15   Trumansburg             280     (04-D )
    16   Geneseo                 285     (05-D )
    17   Cooperstown             285     (03-D )
    18   Tully                   295     (03-D )

Class D seems to have enough uncertainties that makes prediction very uncertain

... Factors such as lack of team depth, status of returning runners, and unknown abilities of new runners could make Class D interesting and changeable as the season progresses.

The predicted scores above are based solely on speed ratings of returning runners and my guesses.

Tri-Valley and Arkport-Canaseraga finished 1st and 2nd, respectively, at both last year's & the previous year's Class D race ... Tri-Valley graduated 4 runners (including 3 scorers), but return 2 top runners and could be a contender if new runners develop (benefit-of-the doubt goes to teams that win) ... Arkport-Canaseraga did not have enough runners of known XC ability to include in the projection.

Pine Plains gets the top team score based on possible returning speed ratings ... Section 5 teams Oakfield-Alabama & Bloomfield-Naples are both possible contenders.

Enough teams could be close enough that one or two new impactful runners could make them a contender or possibly a favorite ... If you could bet money on Class D in pre-season, I would skip the bet.

Some Class D Returning Runners by Team 

                            Highest   Overall
                           XC-Rating  Rating    XC Ratings by Race 2022
                           ---------  -------   -----------------------------------
Pine Plains
  Maxwell Decker        11    145       142     133 142 145 126
  Jared Heggenstaller   12    142       139     132 142 136 126
  Nicholas McPherson    12    141       140     137 141 137
  Maxwell Heggenstaller 12    139       139     139
  Daniel McPherson      10    121       121     120 121

Oakfield-Alabama
  Connor Domoy          12    184       177     177 171 176 184 172 176 167 179 170
  Logan Clark           11    162       157     143 162 154 157 147 150 154
  Eli Williams          11    138       134     138 126 127 129 129
  Eli Loesen            10    118       118     118

Bloomfield-Naples
  Jude Rischpater       12    179       169     159 165 166 179 167 173 171 175 167
  Oscar Fenster         11    132       124     112 132 117 105 118 115
  Holden Lester         11    128       128     128
  Julian Cali           11    125       120     125 114 104 100 113
  Anthony LaFemina      12    123       115     123 104 90 98 101

Tri-Valley
  Van Furman            11    177       172     163 172 177 157 170 170 163 169 170 164
  Craig Costa           12    161       159     154 161 158 150 156 159 157 159 159 153
  Connor Weyant         12    125       122     125 116 124 118 117 96 112 91
  Noah Edwards          12    117       106     113 85 117 73 57 52

Maple Grove
  Ethan Verbosky        10    168       159     142 157 168 158 156 154 143 134
  Sean Verbosky         12    151       146     141 149 151 141 121 101
  Joshua Ashbaugh       9     122       120     122 116 122 108 100 74
  Jacob Lewis           10    116       108     105 88 112 116 102
  Seth Carr             11    114       100     43 114 108 99 80 -5
  Caleb Barton          12    110       104     110 81 103 104 84 47

South Lewis
  Collin Stafford       12    177       177     177
  MacCoy Maciejko       11    156       150     142 156 141 150 145 147 117
  Michael McGrath       11    137       135     128 137 134 136 132 114
  Dakota Maciejko       10    115       113     115 110 111 112 107 65
  Aiden Maciejko        11    93        89      93 85 84 48 70

Frewsburg
  Cody Kent             11    156       153     156 150 149 146 146 147 133
  Juvenal Diaz          12    152       147     145 152 130 147 149 142 131 126
  Xander Pitts          12    144       132     117 124 133 129 140 144 127 134
  Daniel Peterson       11    114       103     97 92 105 108 114 87 66

Lake George
  Jason Ludlow          11    132       129     132 125 122 125 108
  James Richard         9     132       131     132 130 127 127 126 116
  Samuel Burns          12    123       115     111 112 112 123 114 119 97
  Cameron Hoffis        12    122       99      33 109 98 122 103 32
  Caden Willett         12    117       114     113 102 116 117
  Oliver Herrick        12    115       103     94 81 115 100 91 98 97
  Brendan Battersea-Mann12    114       112     107 109 114 113

Beaver River
  Conner Zehr           12    167       163     159 161 164 167 163 164 162 165 159 153
  Mason Zehr            10    145       142     139 145 140 140 140 130 123
  Tyler Boliver         11    134       131     133 129 129 128 134 111 98

CHSAA - PSAL - AIS - Boys ... Pre-Season 2023

 

         Team                   Score    Federation
         ---------------------  -----    ----------
    1    St. Anthony's            60     (CHSAA)
    2    Xavier                   95     (CHSAA)
    3    Brooklyn Tech           100     (PSAL )
    4    Hunter College Campus   120     (PSAL )
    5    Regis                   145     (CHSAA)
    6    Hackley                 185     (AIS  )
    7    Xaverian                215     (CHSAA)
    8    Archbishop Molloy       230     (CHSAA)
    9    Stuyvesant              235     (PSAL )
    10   Iona Prep               260     (CHSAA)
    11   Chaminade               265     (CHSAA)
    12   Riverdale Country       270     (AIS  )
    13   Bronx HS Sci            300     (PSAL )
    14   Fordham Prep            310     (CHSAA)
    15   St. Joseph Sea          360     (CHSAA)
    16   Ethical Culture         365     (AIS  )
    17   Collegiate              365     (AIS  )

St. Anthony's is the defending CHSAA Champion ... they finished 2nd at both NY Federation and NXR New York last year ... at NXN Nationals, 3 of their 5 scorers were underclassmen ... St. Anthony's has good depth and that makes them the pre-season favorite in this group and a co-favorite to return to NXN Nationals this season ..... During Outdoor Track, St. Anthony's had 3 returning runners with 3200m times of (9:15.88, 9:29.92, and 9:59.14).

Xavier finished 2nd at CHSAA Championships last year (and the previous year), and return 3 scoring runners ... they typically have decent depth and remain a factor in this classification group.

Brooklyn Technical is the defending PSAL Champion ... they return 5 runners from that race including 4 scorers.

Hunter College Campus was 2nd at last year's PSAL Championship, and they return all 5 scoring runners.

Some CHSAA-AIS Returning Runners by Team 

                            Highest   Overall
                           XC-Rating  Rating    XC Ratings by Race 2022
                           ---------  -------   -----------------------------------
St. Anthony's
  Jack Morelli          12    175       172     160 175 172 174 175 174 169 169 166 168 167
  Collin McLaughlin     12    173       169     168 170 169 173 165 167 171 165 163 165 158
  Regan MacPherson      11    168       164     157 162 164 165 168 168 166 154 165 159 165 167
  John Melloy           12    162       150     148 134 149 162 149
  Gabriel Wigutow       12    151       148     146 151 141 129
  Liam Curley           11    148       144     141 147 148 141 133 132 108
  Michael Kennedy       12    147       145     147 147 132 143 126 125 129
  James Ciaccio         11    142       137     133 141 142 119 138 122 131 109
  Gavin Johnston        10    140       139     140 135

Xavier
  Aaron Gill            11    171       166     162 162 171 167 157 164 158 162 166 162 157
  D'Angelo Brown        11    170       164     154 162 170 162 162 157 147 152 160 162 157
  Sam Ryland            10    159       156     150 154 159 155 147
  Hau Son Wong          11    158       155     151 156 156 158 156 150 146
  Reid Baynes           11    142       134     141 101 142 127 117 128 134 91
  Jayden Falcon         10    139       134     139 121 130 128
  Jonathan Taylor       12    138       137     138 136 135 123 135 127 131
  Eamon Woodruff        12    136       134     129 136 134 130 134 132 122 131
  Ladd Croper           11    135       131     127 135 133 126 126 118 113

Brooklyn Tech
  Travis Wolfe-Thompson 12    172       167     165 163 169 172 160 165 165
  Elijah Gentry         12    165       160     160 156 155 151 158 165 160 165
  Max Haidt             12    154       150     152 145 145 148 137 136 154
  Samuel Dultsin        12    153       150     148 153 148 146 145 142 145
  Raymond Walls         12    151       147     145 149 141 151 139 135 144
  Amos Pres             11    145       142     145 136 143 128 123
  Kavi Sieg             11    141       138     125 141 140 129 130 137
  Cullen MC Cleary      11    140       134     133 123 140 124 129

Hunter College
  Shane Murphy          12    179       176     164 179 177 162 174 172 172
  Henry Koike-Sieira    12    179       179     179 179 176 179 177
  Isaac Cohen           12    153       150     149 151 112 148 149 153
  Pierce Siegel         10    146       143     130 146 142 141 143 133
  Oliver Flor           11    145       145     145 145 142 145 138 140
  Tristan Ge            12    137       132     123 123 137 136

Regis
  James Stappenbeck     11    165       156     152 123 165
  Ethan Klimczak        11    151       147     147 146 144 151 139
  Brendon O'Keefe       12    150       146     135 145 148 150 148 144 146
  Thomas Chun           12    149       142     124 137 146 149 147 139
  Caleb Lee-Kong        12    147       142     124 147 142 142 141 134 133
  Dylan Alphenaar       12    125       119     91 124 108 125 124
  Jason Alperin         12    123       120     118 114 121 119 108 117 123

Hackley
  Asher Beck            12    180       176     175 178 173 180 159 165 165 165
  Travis Knaggs         12    159       153     152 145 159 150 152 146 147
  Jasper Quattrone      11    147       145     147 146 137 139 141 116
  Ignacio Castro        11    142       136     134 137 139 142 113 114 117
  Jackson Beatty        11    135       129     131 135 124 98 126 108 93 10
  Fox Quattrone         11    128       124     126 119 119 99 126 128 118