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Pre-Race Comments
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All previous 18 years of NXN (Team Nationals) have demonstrated that most teams will
NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will
have speed ratings lower than the individual runner
projections below (this is expected because national competition on
a new course is a
new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling,
time-changes, etc) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses
(typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for
projecting relative team scores.
The overall morning-line team scores
projected above are
based (in part) on the individual overall speed ratings below ... There
were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning
ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to
approximate an overall-combined rating ... and incorporate possible
inconsistencies into final projected team scores.
Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race
(runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why
predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms
of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever
possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ...
Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in
predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and
frustrating )
... Notice the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and
State Meet ratings above.
Herriman has the best Team Score based
NXR Regional ratings and Christian Brothers Academy has the
best Team Score based on State Meet ratings.
General Comments:
- The Morning-Line at most Horse
Tracks considers three factors:
- ... Past performance history of each
horse
- ... An Opinion of what people are
likely to bet
- ... Handicapping Opinion of the person making the
morning-line.
Three favorites have emerged from the
speed rating assessment ... Herriman, Christian
Brothers Academy and Niwot ... Other teams are definitely in the
hunt for a podium spot, but the computer simulations primarily place these 3 teams
at the top.
Herriman and
Christian Brothers Academy rate vey close to each other with
Herriman very slightly ahead ... Herriman is the defending
NXN Champion and Herriman was 3rd at NXN 2022 indicating an
ability to race very well at NXN in recent years, and that makes
Herriman the actual morning-line favorite entering NXN 2024.
Christian Brothers Academy
has raced exceptionally well this season ... This year they have an
extra week of rest/training before traveling to Oregon for NXN, and that
might help ... The speed ratings indicate that Christian Brothers
Academy could definitely win with an excellent performance.
Niwot
finished 5th at NXN last year with no seniors on that team ... I
consider Niwot as one of the favorites for this reason - The
current overall speed ratings place Niwot within possible reach
of the other two favorites IF their top runner from last
year's NXN (Rocco Culpepper, 188 speed rating) could pop a big race ...
earlier in the season he had a 189 speed rating, but has been off form
in recent races and I have him as the #6 runner (and non-scorer) in the
overall Niwot ratings ... a 188 speed rating could place Niwot
very close to Herriman & CBA making the race very
interesting!
Teams projected
as #4 through #10 above are not
separated by much and could swap finishing places ... It really is a
guess
... and the same goes for the other close team scores below them.
Computer Race Simulations
(a
brief explanation) ... I take each runner's seasonal speed ratings (see
ratings below) and use them to run a statistical "monte carlo"
analysis (a mathematical technique that predicts possible outcomes of an
uncertain event) ... I typically run 100,000 race simulations randomly
selecting one speed rating for each runner in each simulated race ... I
do runs using just the ratings I have or I wrap a
statistical distribution around the sequential ratings of each runner
and randomly select one point on that distribution (preferred) ... The
results of each simulated race is compiled.
I think it's a toss-up with a bunch of teams
that have a chance to make the podium ... There is definitely talent to challenge the
top teams ... and maybe half the teams could challenge for a podium spot
with a great
performance.
As noted above, some of the teams
are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams
(this includes injuries, sickness, bad luck, etc.) ...
This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.
Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and
predicting the exact
order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note:
I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the
predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off"
races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run
well).
Remember ... Teams performing at
(or above) performance levels getting them to NXN Nationals typically jump up
significantly in projected finish-positions.
Individual Race Comments:
The table below lists the top runners at
NXN 2024 by current best speed rating ...
Once again, the majority of runners listed below qualified as individuals (not on a
team competing at NXN).
46 Runners have a seasonal speed rating of
190 or higher, and 15 have a speed rating of 195 or higher ...
This is a great
race.
This race has many runners capable of
exceptional performances and challenging for the top positions ...
Many runners are in contention for a top 10 position.
Not certain what the course conditions and
weather will be at race time ... Sometimes it is hard to guess who will be helped
or hurt by the conditions ... and the tactics of the race is
another fun handicapping factor with so many guys in contention ...
10 of the 45 runner with 190+ speed ratings are "Team" runners.
Keegan Smith is the hot runner entering
NXN 2024 as he won both NXR Southeast and Foot Locker South ... his 199
speed rating at NXR Southeast is the highest speed rating this season
... But many other runners are close behind, especially in
current overall rating, and this will be the first time many of the
runners will have raced each other head-to-head all season ... This
would be a wonderful pari-mutuel betting race !
Many serious challengers in
this race ... Take your pick from the Speed Rating Past
Performance List below ... Who would I bet? - That would be
determined by the pari-mutuel betting odds, and I would bet somebody
with betting odds higher than his probability of winning.
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