My pre-season projection for National Boys Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest ... This season I decided to post the list for the first time due to a number of inquiries (normally I limit these public pre-season projections to NY State) ... Some thoughts about the upcoming season are listed below.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank with respect to possible competition at the end of the season ... I am ONLY concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete) ... I do NOT consider teams from States that can not compete in NXN (such as Michigan).
For the most part, the team listing below is an extension of the 2009 XC season into 2010 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams (and then I start including them and ignore the pre-season).
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had about 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2010 race results are what count -
and the speed ratings I derive for them
...
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2010
NXN
School State Score Region
------------------ ----- ----- ------
1 American Fork UT 290 SW
1 Arcadia CA 290 CA
3 York IL 300 MW
4 Columbus North IN 305 MW
4 Trabuco Hills CA 305 CA
6 The Woodlands TX 330 SO
6 Christian Brothers Ac NJ 330 NE
6 North Central WA 330 NW
9 Dana Hills CA 340 CA
9 Loyola CA CA 340 CA
11 Albuquerque Acad NM 350 SW
11 Warwick Valley NY 350 NY
13 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 360 NY
14 Oak Park River Forest IL 365 MW
14 Glendora CA 365 CA
16 Crater OR 370 NW
17 West Windsor Plain-N NJ 380 NE
17 Belvidere North IL 380 MW
17 Claremont CA 380 CA
17 Valencia CA 380 CA
21 Shaker NY 390 NY
22 Marcus TX 400 SO
22 Granite Hills CA 400 CA
22 Wayzata MN 400 Heart
22 Pembroke MA 400 NE
22 Birmingham CA 400 CA
22 Eden Praire MN 400 Heart
28 Eisenhower WA WA 410 NW
28 Palos Verdes CA 410 CA
28 Blacksburg VA 410 SE
28 Alhambra AZ 410 SW
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled somewhat:
Burnsville MN Heart
Parkview GA SE
West Linn OR NW
Noblesville IN MW
Bellarmine CA
North Rockland NY
Trinity Prep FL SE
Saugus CA
Midlothian VA SE
Rancho Cucamonga CA
O'Fallon IL MW
Altoona PA NE
Orland Park (Sandburg) IL MW
Moorhead MN Heart
Terre Haute North IN MW
Some Thoughts About the List ... Initially, I thought the New York teams would be ranked a bit lower, so I was a bit hesitant to spend time generating this list ... But the numbers are consistent enough to rank three NY teams in the top 21.
To be perfectly honest and blunt, this is my conclusion ... The NY teams rank decently nation-wise because the rest of the nation simply does not appear be that great entering the season.
In contrast to the girls, there are no boy's teams "heads-and-shoulders" above the others (on the girl's side, FM, Saratoga and Saugus enter the season significantly ahead of the other girl's teams) ... The numbers do place a few boys' teams ahead, but there are questions concerning these teams.
American Fork UT is slightly the top number-rated team ... American Fork UT brings back 5 of the top 6 from last year's NXN where they finished 8th ... However, their speed numbers from NXN (180, 179, 178, 176, 171) will be equaled or exceeded by a bunch of teams by the end of the season, so I believe this team will need to improve to have a decent chance to win NXN.
Arcadia CA finished a disappointing 20th at last year's NXN ... Like many California teams, they show excellent speed through the CA State Meet, but then that speed does not translate completely at Portland Meadows ... Until results show otherwise, I have that concern about all California teams.
Columbus North IN gets ranked
highly on this list because they raced very fast at the Indiana State
Meet and then finished 4th at the NXN-Midwest Regional ... However,
their NXN regional race was not nearly as good as the State meet (which
is a big concern) and the Midwest region is very strong annually ...
Without a top performance at the NXN regional, they could be sitting
home again (interesting statement considering they are #4 in the
pre-season list ... That's how close all of this could be).
York IL and The Woodlands TX
rate highly because .... they always rate highly come the end of the
season
.
Making this list required a lot of guesses ... Slight changes in some guesses could switch some teams a lot ... For example, if I assume the #4 and #5 runners for West Windsor Plains-North will be a bit better than guessed, then WWPN will jump up a lot (having the two Rosas is a nice advantage).
Some team may emerge as a real national leader during the season ... But entering the 2010 XC season, the national boy's race seems wide open.