Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
For the most part, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2010 XC season into 2011 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available, that team is probably NOT included below ... I ignored last year's modified runners.
Initially, the Combined Class List included 70+ teams, but I began removing teams with lower scores to make computer race simulations more manageable ... Other teams could be included, but time constraints are necessary ... Data on selected teams by class is also posted including relevant track times at 3200m, 1600m and Steeplechase.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class (because some people are interested
)
... A lot can change between early August and November.
NOTE ... All team classes assume the proposed class cut-off numbers will be adopted ... New York is going from five classes in 2010 to four classes in 2011...
Pre-Season Projection - New York Boys Team Contenders - 2011
--------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------
Scores Using Top 40 Teams Scores Using Top 22 Teams
--------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------
Section- Section-
Team Score Class Team Score Class
------------------ ----- -------- ------------------ ----- --------
1 Shaker 90 (02-A ) 1 Shaker 80 (02-A )
2 Rush-Henrietta 145 (05-A ) 2 Rush-Henrietta 120 (05-A )
3 Fayetteville-Manlius 190 (03-A ) 3 Fayetteville-Manlius 150 (03-A )
4 Arlington 265 (01-A ) 4 Arlington 195 (01-A )
5 St. Anthony's 270 (CHSAA) 5 St. Anthony's 215 (CHSAA)
6 East Aurora 395 (06-B ) 6 East Aurora 285 (06-B )
7 Smithtown 420 (11-A ) 6 Walt Whitman 285 (11-A )
7 Warwick Valley 420 (09-A ) 8 Smithtown 295 (11-A )
7 Maine-Endwell 420 (04-B ) 8 Warwick Valley 295 (09-A )
10 Walt Whitman 425 (11-A ) 8 Maine-Endwell 295 (04-B )
11 Saratoga 435 (02-A ) 11 Saratoga 305 (02-A )
12 Monsignor Farrell 480 (CHSAA) 12 Monsignor Farrell 320 (CHSAA)
12 Burnt Hills 480 (02-B ) 13 Burnt Hills 325 (02-B )
14 Brewster 490 (01-B ) 14 Brewster 330 (01-B )
15 Brighton 510 (05-B ) 15 Sachem East 345 (11-A )
16 Carmel 525 (01-A ) 16 Brighton 350 (05-B )
17 Pittsford Mendon 530 (05-B ) 17 Carmel 350 (01-A )
17 Sachem East 530 (11-A ) 17 Ithaca 355 (04-A )
17 Ithaca 530 (04-A ) 19 Pittsford Mendon 355 (05-B )
20 Port Washington 570 (08-A ) 20 Port Washington 365 (08-A )
20 Harborfields 570 (11-B ) 21 Harborfields 375 (11-B )
22 Chaminade 590 (CHSAA) 21 Chaminade 375 (CHSAA)
23 Irondequoit 605 (05-A )
24 Corning 610 (04-A )
25 Pearl River 615 (01-B )
26 Suffern 625 (01-A )
26 Pittsford Sutherland 625 (05-B )
28 Queensbury 630 (02-B )
28 Northport 630 (11-A )
30 Bethlehem 635 (02-A )
31 North Rockland 650 (01-A )
31 Bishop Gibbons 650 (02-C )
31 Niskayuna 650 (02-A )
34 Collegiate 660 (AIS )
35 Elmira District 685 (04-A )
36 Washingtonville 690 (09-A )
37 Shenendehowa 710 (02-A )
38 Somers 720 (01-B )
38 St. John Baptist 720 (CHSAA)
40 Commack 730 (11-A )
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2010 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I wanted to).
In General ... Shaker is the favorite entering the 2011 XC season followed by Rush-Henrietta and Fayetteville-Manlius ... Additional comments and information are given below by class.
)
... Nick Ryan is one of the individual favorites entering 2011,
so FM will begin their team score with a very low number
(possibly a 1 which is a big advantage) ... Fayetteville-Manlius
graduated two of their top three runners from States and NXN Nationals
(Mark McGurrin and Andrew Roache), and that obviously hurts ... FM
finished 2nd at NXN Nationals and two other returning runners (Ben
Thomas and Jules Wellner) will provide some experience and
ability to help Nick Ryan (and in typical FM fashion, you
can expect Thomas and Wellner to show improvement) ... Incoming freshman
Bryce Millar ran very nicely during track (as an 8th-gader) and
posted very good times at 3200m (10:03) and 1600m (4:32), so I project
some significant improvement at XC in 2011 ... and I suspect FM
will find a decent #5 runner ... But this is guesswork, and I'm
"guessing" Coach Bill Aris is wondering how this will all turn
out