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XC 2015 - Katie Rainsberger or Weini Kelati 

(by Bill Meylan, TullyRunners, Dec 15, 2015)

Footlocker and NXN Nationals 2015 have been run ... As expected, Katie Rainsberger won NXN and Weini Kelati won Footlocker ... The two National champions have never raced each head-to-head in a cross country race ... So the question asked is "Who is the real National Champion?" ... Answer - They are both real National Champions.

High school XC fans realize top talent is being divided between NXN and Footlocker ... The division became very apparent when NXN began their regional qualifying system forcing most top runners to choose one race or the other ... Some runners are still able to compete in both races, but they are a minority ... Five girls did race in both events in 2015.

Almost immediately after Footlocker Nationals, several people asked me who I would rank #1 ... Katie Rainsberger or Weini Kelati ... It depends on the ranking criteria, and there are many opinions on what the criteria should be ... My criteria is different from most people ... The answer to my criteria goes beyond a "ranking".

The evaluation starts with available data ... Below are the XC past performance records for both Katie Rainsberger and Weini Kelati (with speed ratings)... When handicapping a horse race, the past performance program is the place to start.

Katie Rainsberger (Air Academy HS) - Senior   NXN Nationals 12/5/2015 1 16:56.8 161 NXN Southwest Region 11/21/2015 1 17:07.0 150 Co State Champ 4A 10/31/2015 1 17:39.0 157 CO State 4A Region 10/22/2015 1 17:41.0 --- Desert Twilight AZ 10/2/2015 1 16:23.4 156 Coronado Cougar Clas 9/24/2015 1 17:05.08 160 Cheyenne Mt Stampede 8/28/2015 1 18:10.6 146 ------------------ ---------- -------- IAAF Junior Worlds 6K 3/28/2015 55 22:49.0 --- APA Pan American Cup 2/22/2015 5 16:44.0 --- USA Junior Champ 6K 2/7/2015 3 22:11.0 --- NXN Nationals 12/6/2014 6 17:41.0 151 NXN Southwest Region 11/22/2014 1 17:11.0 150 Co State Champ 4A 10/25/2014 1 18:50.3 149 CO State 4A Region 10/16/2014 1 18:08.0 --- Desert Twilight AZ 10/3/2014 1 16:41.63 146 Coronado Cougar Clas 9/18/2014 1 18:14.6 139 Air Academy Kadet Inv 9/11/2014 1 18:03.5 --- St. Vrain Invite 9/6/2014 1 18:01.0 141 Arapahoe Warrior Inv 8/29/2014 1 18:30.0 139 ------------------ ---------- -------- USA Junior Champ 6K 2/15/2014 5 22:22.0 --- NXN Nationals 12/7/2013 6 17:38.8 149 NXN Southwest Region 11/23/2013 3 17:45.4 145 Co State Champ 4A 10/26/2014 2 18:47.4 141 Titan Thunder Invite 9/28/2013 2 18:19.0 131

Weini Kelati (Heritage Leesburg) - Junior (final HS season) Footlocker Nationals 12/12/2015 1 17:09.7 163 Footlocker South Reg 11/28/2015 1 16:43.0 159 VA State 4A Champ 11/13/2015 1 17:22.0 157 VHSL Group 4A West Reg 11/5/2015 1 16:56.6 159 VHSL Group 4A Conf 10/27/2015 1 17:18.97 --- Third Battle Invite 10/17/2015 1 16:29.0 158 Glory Days Grill Inv 10/10/2015 1 17:11.0 155 Oatlands Invitational 9/19/2015 1 17:11.0 155 ------------------ ---------- -------- Footlocker Nationals 12/13/2014 20 18:20.0 141 Footlocker South Reg 11/29/2014 5 17:04.0 148 VA State 4A Champ 11/15/2014 2 17:38.0 142 VHSL Group 4A Region 11/6/2014 2 17:59.0 141 VHSL Group 4A Conf 10/29/2014 1 17:55.6 --- Third Battle Invite 10/18/2014 1 17:31.3 140 Loudoun County Champ 10/1/2014 1 17:28.0 --- DCXC Invitational 9/27/2014 1 17:45.0 --- Oatlands Invitational 9/20/2014 1 18:12.0 136

Both girls are undefeated in 2015 and won major national championship races ... Based on 2015 accomplishments, Katie Rainsberger and Weini Kelati are the runners to consider for a top National ranking.

For horseracing, I am primarily a "speed figure" and "trip" handicapper ... "speed figure" means the horses speed ratings ... "trip" handicapping evaluates whether a horse gets a good trip or a bad trip during a race ... was the horse blocked by other horses, ridden wide around turns, given a bad ride by the jockey, set too fast or slow a pace and similar factors which effect the speed and finish position.

Perhaps you can see where I am going ... I am handicapping Katie Rainsberger and Weini Kelati as if they were racing against each other in an upcoming race ... Since they haven't raced head-to-head, looking at common opponents might yield some useful information ... Five girls ran both NXN and Footlocker ... Here are the finishing times and margins behind Katie Rainsberger and Weini Kelati:

   Weini Kelati       17:09.7    Margin     Katie Rainsberger   16:56.8    Margin
   ----------------   -------    ------     -----------------   -------    ------
   Judy Pengergast    17:20.0    10.3       Judy Pengergast     17:20.8    24.0
   Madison Troy       17:41.2    31.5       Madison Troy        17:24.2    27.4
   Sarah Leinheiser   17:41.7    32.0       Sarah Leinheiser    17:20.2    23.4
   Stephanie Jenks    18:04.8    55.1       Stephanie Jenks     17:44.5    47.7
   Abby Gray          18:09.2    59.5       Abby Gray           17:33.9    37.1

Weini Kelati had a larger winning margin over 4 of the 5 girls ... But remember, we are looking at different courses and different races ... In my opinion, the NXN course and conditions made it more of a strength course compared to Balboa Park ... speed courses can favor larger margins of victory behind top runners ... However, the comparative margins are good to know.

Speed Ratings ... Both girls have similar speed ratings ... Weini Kelati has a slightly higher best speed rating (163) ... BUT, my Footlocker National speed ratings are always higher compared to other races due to the unique nature of the race ... a small field of only top national runners competing in good weather and good course conditions where the runners try to run fast against the best ... NXN is not really the same in terms of speed.

Katie Rainsberger won NXN going away from the field with a decisive move ... Weini Kelati was extended all-out by the surprising performance of Maryjeanne Gilbert ... Could Katie Rainsberger have gone faster if pushed?? - It's a guess, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Styles ... Weini Kelati seems to be a confirmed front-runner this year ... Katie Rainsberger has demonstrated the ability to follow or lead, and that is usually an advantage against a confirmed front-runner when abilities seem equal or close.

Who Would I Bet?

Assume the course and location offer no advantage to either runner.

Assume Katie Rainsberger and Weini Kelati have equal odds.

Here is a hard assumption for most people who have never done it ... Assume you will be betting the rent money on one runner to win ... Better yet, assume you will be betting a month's paycheck on one runner to win.

Betting serious money removes biases and favoritisms that might cloud the judgment of "ranking" somebody #1 and somebody else #2 ... Seriously think about actually doing it ...  This is better than "ranking" ... Think about the money leaving your hand and going through the pari-mutuel betting window.

You probably think the runners are even-up if you can't let go of the money ... "Rank" both of them #1.

I'm a horseplayer ... I have an opinion ... and I'm willing to bet ... Katie Rainsberger beat an excellent field at NXN ... 19 girls at NXN had speed ratings of 150 or higher on a strength course while only 11 girls at Footlocker had speed ratings of 150 or higher ... I think the overall talent was better at NXN and Katie Rainsberger ran away from it impressively ... She has yet to be extended this season ... She can front-run or follow and has exceptional speed.

Weini Kelati has been outstanding in 2015 ... But the handicapper in me thinks Katie Rainsberger is the bet ... That's my opinion and I know others will disagree strongly ... That's why handicapping is fun.