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Pre-Race Comments
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All 14 years of NXN have demonstrated that most teams will
NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will
have speed ratings lower than the individual runner
projections below (this is expected because national competition on
a new course is a
new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling,
time-changes, etc) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses
(typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for
projecting relative team scores.
The overall morning-line team scores
projected above are
based (in part) on the individual overall speed ratings below ... There
were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning
ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to
approximate an overall-combined rating ... and incorporate possible
inconsistencies into final projected team scores.
Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race
(runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why
predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms
of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever
possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ...
Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in
predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and
frustrating )
... Notice the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and
State Meet ratings above.
General Team Comments:
The Morning-Line at most Horse
Tracks considers three factors:
.. (1) past performance history of each horse,
.. (2) an opinion of what people are likely to bet,
.. (3) a handicapping opinion of the person making the
morning-line.
The Boys Race at NXN Nationals 2019
looks even-up at the very top end ... Newbury Park and
Great Oak are even-up ... Both teams ran "up to projections"
at NXN last year (Great Oak was projected 2nd and finished 2nd,
while Newbury Park finished 6th after being projected 5th)
... so both teams are familiar with the course and raced well at the
course ... Newbury Park gets a 1 point edge only because they did
slightly better in the NXR Regional and State Meet speed rating merges
... The morning-line
scores are shown above.
NXN Nationals is a special race because
all 22 teams are top national teams ... There are no poor teams in this
race ... Ever year I get comments from fans of teams projected to finish
at or near the bottom ... "How can you pick a team this good to finish
that bad"
... Well, NXN is like a top Stakes-Grade horse race where all the horses
are really good ... and often it is harder to pick who will finish
last than who will finish first.
As noted above, some of the teams
are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams ...
This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.
Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and
predicting the exact
order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note:
I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the
predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off"
races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run
well).
Remember ... Teams performing at
(or above) performance levels getting them to NXN Nationals typically jump up
significantly in projected finish-positions.
Some Individual Team Comments:
Newbury Park CA ...
Newbury Park is an exceptionally strong team ... Their major
strength occurs at the top end (runners Nico Young and Jace
Aschbrenner) which could start the team scoring with a 1-2 (or 2 of
the top 4 team spots) which is big advantage ... their next two runners
fall within the range of the Great Oak pack, and how they
displace each other plus the finish of Newbury Park's #5 could
determine the NXN winner ... Newbury Park finished 6th at NXN
last year, so they can race good at this course ... and four NXN scorers
return from last year's team.
Great Oak CA ...
Great Oak has six runners at the 180 (or plus) overall speed rating
level ... depth is an advantage at NXN and that makes Great Oak
one of the morning-line favorites ... Great Oak raced very nicely at NXN last year and
finished 2nd to Loudoun Valley ...
Great Oak did win NXN in 2015 at this course, so they are capable
of running well Glendoveer ... If the Great Oak pack can overcome
an expected top-end advantage by Newbury Park, Great Oak
has a good chance of winning.
Loudoun
Valley VA ...
Loudoun Valley is the two-time defending NXN Champion ...
Loudoun Valley won last year by an impressive 67 points over
Great Oak and
proved again they could run well on the Glendoveer course ... they
graduated three scoring runners, but their team is deep ...
They get credit for being the defending champion and being capable of
racing at or above expected performance level, but Loudoun Valley
will need their best race of season to have a chance of winning.
La Salle Academy RI ...
La Salle Academy has popped some big performances this season and
need one of those performances to make the podium (but it could happen)
... the overall speed ratings give
La Salle Academy a high morning-line position.
Corner Canyon UT ...
Corner Canyon is definitely a podium contending team ... a
performance at the level of their Utah State Meet win could even give
Corner Canyon a chance of winning NXN 2019.
Wheaton Warrensville
South & St. Charles East ...
Very little separates these two Illinois teams in this NXN field ...
Wheaton Warrensville South has raced very well races, and their
performance level at NXR Midwest gives them a real chance at making the
podium ..... St. Charles East had a bit of an off-performance at
NXR Midwest, but were correctly selected as an At-Large team ... a
performance similar to the Illinois State Meet puts them into contention
for a podium spot ... Two of the St. Charles East runners (Bob
Liking, Micah Wilson) raced very well at Foot Locker Midwest).
Dana Hills CA ...
Dana Hills was selected as an At-large team, and a good
performance by Dana Hills could place three California teams in
the top 10.
Kamiakin WA ...
Kamiakin has shown the ability to contend for a podium spot
(example, the District 8 Champ race), but will need to perform better than their NXR
Northwest win.
Dakota Ridge CO ...
Dakota Ridge raced exceptionally well at last year's NXN and
finished an excellent 3rd (only 1 point behind Great Oak) ...
they are similar to Fayetteville-Manlius this season ... Both
squads have good top-end strength and need good races from their #4 and
#5 scorers.
Fayetteville-Manlius NY ...
The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto-qualifier to
NXN for many years! ... Fayetteville-Manlius won NXN in
2014 ... Fayetteville-Manlius has three potential scorers at the
mid-180s (or higher) speed rating level ... Some season-best
performances at the #4 and #5 positions would move FM up.
Individual Race Comments:
The table below lists the top runners at
NXN 2019 by best speed rating ...
Once again, the majority of runners listed below qualified as individuals (not on a
team competing at NXN).
How interesting would this race be if it was a
pari-mutuel betting race like the Kentucky Derby?
... I would love to see the actually betting odds
... Nico Young is clearly the morning-line favorite based on
seasonal performance (beating runners like Cole Sprout and Leo Daschbach and having an edge in speed ratings) ... But the 2nd through
8th runners in the table below have seasonal best speed ratings
of 197 to 199, which means they very good runners! ... and some would
likely have very good betting odds with respect to their ability ...
plus this race would offer some really good gimmick wagering possibilities (exacta, trifectas,
etc.).
Ryan Schoppe, Evan Holland and
Josh Methner are all undefeated this year and are exceptionally good
runners ... Hard to believe that runners as good as Cole Sprout
and Josh Methner are 6th and 7th, respectively, in the
table below ... Jack Jennings and Liam Murphy were offered
"At-Large" invitations after qualifying for Foot Locker Nationals
(Jennings edged Murphy at New Jersey Groups in a great race, but Murphy
won the NJ Meet of Champions where Jennings was reportedly sick).
Not sure how this race will play-out with so
many good runners ... Maybe there will be a close pack of runners
at the mile before somebody makes a move ... If the race goes out
relatively fast with some decent separation from the main core of
runners, some high speed ratings could result.
This race has some runners capable of exceptional performances and challenging for the top
positions ... Many runners are in
contention for a top five position ... and although Nico Young is
the favorite (he finished 4th last year to Cole Sprout in 3rd),
other runners could pop a huge performance and win.
Should be a good & interesting race.
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.. The morning-line table above has been updated.
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Buchanan has the advantage at the top position where top runner (Corie
Smith) will likely start the team score with a low number.