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National Pre-Season XC 2017

BOYS Teams - National 2017

Bill Meylan (July 29, 2017)

 

  • Boys - Contending National Teams
  •  ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
  •  
  • Purpose
  •  ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
  •  
  • Ranking Method
  •  ... General extension of the 2016 XC season into 2017
  •  ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
  •  ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
  •  ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
  •  ... Consider performance in championship races
  •  ... Initially, combine about 70 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
  •  ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with worst scores in an iterative process
  •  ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors

Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2017 race results are what count.

Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess".

I did add some Regional Projections this year.

 

 Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2017
 

 Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2017


      School                 State   Score     NXN Region
      --------------------   -----   -----     ----------
  1   Loudoun Valley          VA      220      Southeast
  2   Great Oak               CA      235      California
  3   Downers Grove North     IL      300      Midwest
  4   Carmel                  IN      320      Midwest
  5   Roosevelt               CA      325      California
  6   Wayzata                 MN      330      Heartland
  7   Christian Brothers      NJ      340      Northeast
  8   St. Xavier (Lou)        KY      360      Southeast
  9   Crater                  OR      370      Northwest
  10  Green Hope              NC      375      Southeast
  11  The Woodlands           TX      385      South
  12  Princeton               NJ      385      Northeast 
  13  Timpanogos              UT      395      Southwest
  14  Dana Hills              CA      395      California
  15  Bellarmine-CA           CA      395      California
  16  Burnt Hills             NY      400      New York
  17  Springville             UT      410      Southwest
  18  Central Valley          WA      410      Northwest
  19  Saint John's            MA      420      Northeast
  20  Loyola                  CA      425      California
  21  Davis UT                UT      430      Southwest
  22  Staples                 CT      440      Northeast
  23  Pleasant Valley         IA      440      Heartland
  24  York                    IL      445      Midwest
  25  Brentwood Academy       TN      450      Southeast
  26  St. Anthony's           NY      450      New York
  27  Fairport                NY      455      New York
  28  Palmer Ridge            CO      460      Southwest
  29  Bozeman                 MT      470      Northwest
  30  Council Rock North      PA      480      Northeast
  30* Flower Mound            TX*     480*     South
  30* Kingwood                TX*     480*     South
    * added above (from below) for multiple team
       regional representation from each region


    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order
      could be shuffled ... some could be above as well.

       American Fork           UT      Southwest
       Mount Tabor             NC      Southeast
       Fort Wayne Carroll      IN      Midwest
       Niskayuna               NY      New York
       Mahomet-Seymour         IL      Midwest
       Trinity Prep            FL      Southeast
       Mountain Brook          AL      Southeast
       Blue Springs            MO      Midwest
       Neuqua Valley           IL      Midwest
       Desert Vista            AZ      Southwest
       Bolles                  FL      Southeast
       Fayetteville-Manlius    NY      New York
       Dublin                  CA      California (added July 31)
       St. Francis (MV)        CA      California
       Bellarmine Prep         WA      Northwest
       Laramie                 WY      Northwest
       La Salle Academy        RI      Northeast
       Corunna                 MI      Midwest
       Hudson                  OH      Midwest
       North Central           WA      Northwest
       West Anchorage          AK      Northwest
       Star Valley             WY      Northwest
       Mountain Vista          CO      Southwest
       Jesuit                  OR      Northwest
       Dulaney                 MD      Southeast
       Wheaton Warrenville So  IL      Midwest
       Severna Park            MD      Southeast
       Summit                  OR      Northwest
       Eisenhower              WA      Northwest
       Woodlands College Park  TX      South
       Fayetteville            AR      South
       Trinity (Louisville)    KY      Southeast
       Concord                 NH      Northeast
       Ferris                  WA      Northwest
       Millard West            NE      Heartland
       St. Thomas Aquinas      KS      Heartland
       Sioux Falls Lincoln     SD      Heartland

  *** I may have missed a team or two going through
        my databases as quickly as I did

		
  • Where did the scores come from?
  •  ... 2016 Seasonal Speed Ratings
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on Guessing
  •  
  • Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
  •  ... 2016 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
  •  ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2016, I did not identify 6 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
  •  ...  The top 8 teams at NXN 2016 were all ranked in my pre-season top 17 teams
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.

 

  • General Comments for the Coming Season
  •  ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
  •  ... 11 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
  •  ... 7 of the top 14 teams above finished in the top 14 at NXN Nationals last year
  •  
  • Loudoun Valley and Great Oak are the top two teams by a significant margin ... However, I expect other teams will step-up and challenge the top two.

 

 Comments on the TOP 25 Teams:
 

#1 - Loudoun Valley VA ... Loudoun Valley finished 3rd at the NXR Southeast Regional last year and were not selected as an At-Large team for NXN ... Loudoun Valley won the Virginia 4A State Championship with an impressive performance ... the top 6 runners from the State Meet return, and that alone would have gotten Loudoun Valley ranked this pre-season ... But Loudoun Valley is getting a major boost from transfer runner Sam Affolder ... Sam Affolder ran for Carlisle PA last year and he qualified for Foot Locker Nationals (2nd at Foot Locker Northeast - also ranked 14th nationally as an individual entering this coming season - see the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page for his complete profile).

Here are general speed ratings for the seven Loudoun Valley runners from last season:
 .. Sam Affolder    Sr - 190
 .. Peter Morris     Sr - 187
 .. Colton Bogucki Sr - 182
 .. Jacob Hunter    Jr - 177
 .. Jacob Windle    Jr - 164
 .. Chase Dawson Sr - 163
 .. Kevin Carlson  So - 158
Also read where Loudoun Valley may be getting another transfer who may help ... These are the best team speed ratings for any team entering the season, and that gets Loudoun Valley ranked #1 ... As a side note, those numbers would not have won NXN Nationals last year ... Loudoun Valley and Great Oak enter the season with a decent margin on the other teams, but a bunch of teams ranked below seem capable of stepping-up and being serious challengers.

#2 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 6th at NXN Nationals last year ... Great Oak won NXN Nationals in 2015 ... Great Oak lost 2 of their top 4 runners to graduation, but return a talented core of runners and have some good returning JV runners ... Returning speed ratings of 183, 181, 175, 172 an 171 have Great Oak ranked #2.

#3 - Downers Grove North IL ... Downers Grove North finished 12th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 2nd to Neuqua Valley at both the NXR Midwest Regional and IL State Meet ... Downers Grove North loses 2 of their top 5 runners to graduation, but returns a talented group of 5 runners ... Returning speed ratings from States are 182, 176, 176, 174 and 169.

#4 - Carmel IN ... The Carmel Boys last raced at NXN Nationals in 2014 (16th-place) ... Last year, Carmel finished 7th at the NXR Midwest Regional and 2nd at the Indiana State Championships ... They return their top 5 runners from NXR Midwest (who were also top 4 at States) ... Carmel's experience (both girls and boys) at NXN Nationals is a plus ... Returning speed ratings are 182, 181, 174, 169 and 168.

#5 - Roosevelt CA ... Roosevelt (technically Eleanor Roosevelt High School) finished 6th in the California State Meet merge last year ... Roosevelt returns their top 4 runners from States plus #6 (a freshman) ... Returning speed ratings from States are 183, 181, 175, 171 and 165.

#6 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... they finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year and 14th in 2015 ... Wayzata won NRX Heartland handily last year ... they return 4 of their top 7 (including top runner Khalid Hussein), and they had a deep team ... Returning speed ratings are 190, 175, 173, 170 and 167.

#7 -Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 7th at NXN Nationals last year after winning the NXR Northeast Regional ... Christian Brothers graduated 4 runners from their top 7, however, they are typically a very deep team so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt with respect to reloading ... Returning speed ratings are 182, 178, 174, 169 and 166.

#8 - St. Xavier (Louisville) KY ... St. Xavier (Lou) finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 2nd at the NXR Southeast Regional beating Loudoun Valley ... they return 6 of 7 runners from States and NXR ... Returning speed ratings are 180, 175, 172, 171 and 165.

#9 - Crater OR ... Crater finished 5th at the NXR Northwest Regional after winning the Oregon State 5A Championship ... Crater returns 4 of their top 5 runners including top runner Andy Monroe (who was invited to the Nike Elite Camp) ... Returning speed ratings are 188, 178, 173, 171 and 155. 

#10 - Green Hope NC ... Green Hope finished 6th at the NXR Southeast Regional after finishing 2nd at the North Carolina State Meet (lost by 1 point) ... they return 6 of 7 runners including their top 4 ... Returning speed ratings are 179, 178 171, 169 and 164.

#11 - The Woodlands TX ... The Woodlands is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... they finished 8th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 3rd at the NXR South Regional (sub-par performance) and impressively winning the Texas State 6A Championship ... The Woodlands graduated 3 of their top 6 runners, but had good depth ... Returning speed ratings are 180, 175 170, 169 and 167.

#12 - Princeton NJ ... Princeton finished 7th at the NXR Northeast Regional after winning the New Jersey Meet of Champions (beating Christian Brothers by 5 points) ... they return 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are 183, 179 174, 164 and 162.

#13 - Timpanogos UT ... Timpanogos finished 4th at the NXR Southwest Regional (lost to 3rd-place Springville by 6 points, and Springville was selected as an At-Large team to NXN) ... Timpanogos finished 2nd in the Utah State 4A race ... they return 5 of their top 6 (top runner Joe Benson graduated) ... Returning speed ratings are 182, 174 170, 168 and 167. 

#14 - Dana Hills CA ... Dana Hills finished 14th at NXN Nationals last year and 3rd in 2015 ... they finished 3rd in California State Meet merge and were invited as an At-Large team ... Dana Hills returns 5 runners from NXN (4 from States) including top runner Jack Landgraf ... Returning speed ratings are 183, 172 170, 170 and 164.

#15 - Bellarmine CA ... Bellarmine did not finish in the top 10 of the California State Meet merge, but get ranked this pre-season based on returning speed ratings and a top runner ... Bellarmine returns their top 3 runners (plus #5 and #6 from States) ... Top runner Meika Beaudoin-Rosse is ranked 12th nationally as an individual entering this coming season (see the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page for his complete profile) ... Returning speed ratings are 190, 173 171, 166 and 165.

#16 - Burnt Hills NY ... Burnt Hills is the top ranked New York team entering the 2017 season ... Burnt Hills finished 2nd at NY Federation Championships and 7th at the New York NXN Regional ... their top 4 runners from both those races return ... Burnt Hills appears to be improving based on track results ... Returning speed ratings are 177, 176 175, 166 and 162. 

#17 - Springville UT ... Springville finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 3rd at the NXR Southwest Regional and being selected as an At-Large team ... they finished 3rd at the Utah State 4A race (beaten by Timpanogos who was 2nd to Olympus) ... Springville returns 5 of 7 runners including top runner Grant Gardner ... Returning speed ratings are 188, 183 168, 162 and 160.

#18 - Central Valley WA ... Central Valley finished 2nd in the Washington State 4A race followed by a sub-par performance at the NXR Northwest Regional ... Central Valley returns their top 5 runners (a major factor in being ranked this pre-season) ... Returning speed ratings are 179, 177 171, 166 and 164.

#19 - Saint John's MA ... Saint John's finished 6th at the NXR Northeast Regional ... they return 6 of 7 runners including their top runner (Patrick Craemer) ... Returning speed ratings are 187, 174 171, 164 and 162.

#20 - Loyola CA ... Loyola finished 5th in the California State Meet merge last year ... they return 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are 178, 176 169, 168 and 163.

#21 - Davis UT ... Davis UT is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... they finished 4th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 2nd (to American Fork) at the NXR Southwest Regional ... Davis graduated 6 of the 7 runners from their NXN and Utah State teams, but they did have a high quality JV squad and I am giving them credit for ability to reload quickly ... Raw numbers place them about 35th nationally ... Returning speed ratings are 174, 170 169, 165 and 162.

#22 - Staples CT ... Staples finished 22nd at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 2nd (to Christian Brothers) at the NXR Northeast Regional ... they return 4 of 7 runners (4 of the top 5) ... Returning speed ratings are 178, 174 173, 171 and 152 (I am guessing #5 will be a bit higher).

#23 - Pleasant Valley IA ...Pleasant Valley finished 5th at the NXR Heartland Regional after finishing 2nd (to Dowling Catholic) at the Iowa State Meet ... All 7 runners from NXR Heartland return ... Returning speed ratings are 181, 170 168, 166 and 164.

#24 - York IL ... York has competed at NXN Nationals multiple times in past years ... York beat Fayetteville-Manlius in the first-ever NXN in 2004 ... York finished 11th at the NXR Midwest Regional last year after finishing 16th at the Illinois State Meet ... York returns their top five runners, including top runner Charlie Kern ... Returning speed ratings are 189, 182 164, 163 and 162.

#25 - Brentwood Academy TN ... Brentwood Academy is a different school from Brentwood High who finished 3rd at NXN last year (Brodey Hasty was Brentwood High's top runner) ... Brentwood Academy finished 5th at the NXR Southeast Regional last year after winning the Tennessee State AA Championship (Brentwood High won the TN AAA title) ... Brentwood Academy returns their top 4 runners ... Returning speed ratings are 182, 175 168, 167 and 161.

NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.

Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion ...  Some Regional Projection lists are available at the bottom of this page.

 

 

 Last Year's (2016) Boy's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals
 

                                           NXN                   Finish Order at            Last Year's
      School               State  Score   Region                    NXN 2016                Pre-Season Projection
      -------------------  -----  -----   ------           -----------------------------    -----------------------
  1   Neuqua Valley          IL     270   Midwest          1   Bozeman                MT  -  #12  pre-season
  2   American Fork          UT     275   Southwest        2   American Fork          UT  -  #2   pre-season
  3   Dana Hills             CA     310   California       3   Brentwood              TN  -  #17  pre-season
  4   Lone Peak              UT     320   Southwest        4   Davis                  UT  -  #15  pre-season
  5   Great Oak              CA     320   California       5   Neuqua Valley          IL  -  #1   pre-season
  6   Christian Brothers     NJ     350   Northeast        6   Great Oak              CA  -  #5   pre-season
  7   Lehi (Skyridge HS)     UT     355   Southwest        7   Christian Brothers     NJ  -  #6   pre-season
  8   Lake Zurich            IL     365   Midwest          8   The Woodlands          TX  -  #11  pre-season
  9   Solon                  OH     365   Midwest          9   Liverpool              NY  -  unranked
  10  Madera South           CA     365   California       10  Wayzata                MN  -  #30  pre-season
  11  The Woodlands          TX     370   South            11  Southlake Carroll      TX  -  #22  pre-season
  12  Bozeman                MT     375   Northwest        12  Downers Grove North    IL  -  #30+ group pre-season
  13  West Torrance          CA     375   California       13  St. Xavier (Lou)       KY  -  #30+ group pre-season
  14  Lyons                  IL     375   Midwest          14  Dana Hills             CA  -  #3   pre-season
  15  Davis Utah             UT     380   Southwest        15  Springville            UT  -  unranked
  16  Ogden                  UT     380   Southwest        16  Cathedral Catholic     CA  -  unranked
  17  Brentwood              TN     390   Southeast        17  Mahomet-Seymour        IL  -  unranked
  18  Carmel                 IN     395   Midwest          18  Edina                  MN  -  #30  pre-season
  19  Fayetteville-Manlius   NY     395   New York         19  Fayettevill-Manlius    NY  -  #19  pre-season
  20  Loyola                 CA     405   California       20  Summit                 OR  -  #30+ group pre-season
  21  Broughton              NC     410   Southeast        21  Woodlands College Park TX  -  unranked
  22  Southlake Carroll      TX     410   South            22  Staples                CT  -  unranked
  23  Cherokee               NJ     410   Northeast
  24  Crater                 OR     410   Northwest
  25  Mountain Vista         CO     420   Southwest
  26  Hinsdale Central       IL     430   Midwest
  27  Claremont              CA     435   California
  28  Brea Olinda            CA     435   California
  29  Bellarmine Prep        WA     435   Northwest
  30  Wayzata                MN     440   Heartland
  30  Edina                  MN     440   Heartland
		

 

Boys Pre-Season Regional Projections
 

Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered.

Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2016 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams get excluded).

I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams to watch.

 

 

California
    Great Oak               CA     50     California
    Roosevelt               CA     60     California
    Dana Hills              CA     85     California
    Bellarmine-CA           CA     85     California
    Loyola                  CA     90     California
    Dublin                  CA    115     California (added July 31)
    St. Francis (MV)        CA    115     California
    Baldwin Park            CA    120     California

Heartland **
    Wayzata                 MN     40     Heartland
    Pleasant Valley         IA     60     Heartland
    St. Thomas Aquinas      KS    110     Heartland
    Millard West            NE    110     Heartland
    Sioux Falls Lincoln     SD    120     Heartland
    New Town                ND    120     Heartland
    Stillwater              MN    120     Heartland
     ** Lots of graduations and lack of data make
        the Heartland uncertain and limited with
        the exception of the top two.

Midwest
    Downers Grove North     IL     75     Midwest
    Carmel                  IN     80     Midwest
    York                    IL    115     Midwest
    Fort Wayne Carroll      IN    130     Midwest
    Mahomet-Seymour         IL    135     Midwest
    Blue Springs            MO    140     Midwest
    Corunna                 MI    150     Midwest
    Neuqua Valley           IL    150     Midwest
    Hudson                  OH    150     Midwest
    Wheaton Warrenville So  IL    160     Midwest

New York (see NY Boys Projections Page)
    Burnt Hills             NY    170     New York
    Fairport                NY    200     New York
    Niskayuna               NY    205     New York
    St. Anthony's           NY    225     New York
    Fayetteville-Manlius    NY    230     New York
    Corning                 NY    240     New York
    Shenendehowa            NY    255     New York
    Bethlehem               NY    330     New York
    Saratoga                NY    340     New York
    Xavier                  NY    340     New York
    Baldwinsville           NY    360     New York
    Smithtown               NY    360     New York
    Churchville Chili       NY    380     New York
    St. John the Baptist    NY    395     New York

Northeast
    Christian Brothers      NJ     65     Northeast
    Princeton               NJ     75     Northeast
    Saint John's            MA     80     Northeast
    Staples                 CT     85     Northeast
    Council Rock North      PA     95     Northeast
    La Salle Academy        RI    110     Northeast
    Concord                 NH    125     Northeast
    
Northwest
    Crater                  OR    100     Northwest
    Central Valley          WA    105     Northwest
    Bozeman                 MT    130     Northwest
    Bellarmine Prep         WA    150     Northwest
    Laramie                 WY    160     Northwest
    Jesuit                  OR    160     Northwest
    North Central           WA    160     Northwest
    West Anchorage          AK    160     Northwest
    Star Valley             WY    160     Northwest
    Summit                  OR    170     Northwest
    Eisenhower              WA    175     Northwest
    Ferris                  WA    180     Northwest   

South
    The Woodlands           TX     40     South
    Kingwood                TX     65     South
    Flower Mound            TX     65     South
    Woodlands College Park  TX     80     South
    Fayetteville            AR     80     South

Southeast
    Loudoun Valley          VA     60     Southeast
    St. Xavier (Lou)        KY    100     Southeast
    Green Hope              NC    105     Southeast
    Brentwood Academy       TN    130     Southeast
    Mount Tabor             NC    145     Southeast
    Mountain Brook          AL    155     Southeast
    Trinity Prep            FL    155     Southeast
    Bolles                  FL    160     Southeast
    Dulaney                 MD    190     Southeast
    Severna Park            MD    190     Southeast
    Trinity (Louisville)    KY    200     Southeast

Southwest
    Timpanogos              UT     70     Southwest
    Springville             UT     80     Southwest
    Davis UT                UT     85     Southwest
    Palmer Ridge            CO     85     Southwest
    American Fork           UT    100     Southwest
    Desert Vista            AZ    100     Southwest
    Mountain Vista          CO    105     Southwest